Aggression against Ukraine has undermined the stability of the Putin regime – we can expect a quick change of power in the Russian Federation, experts from the Council on Foreign Relations believe.
By launching a war against Ukraine, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin shot himself in the foot. His regime was shaken. Russia is on the verge of global change.
This opinion You said Council on Foreign Relations experts Liana Fix and Maria Snegovaya.
“The Putin regime in Russia today does not seem as indestructible as before… The United States and its allies should prepare for a possible change of power in Moscow in order to mitigate the negative consequences“, experts write.
They note that the war became a stress test for the vertical of power built by dictator Vladimir Putin. It turned out that the regime is not as strong as previously thought. This was demonstrated, in particular, by the leader of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who launched a military rebellion against Moscow. The Kremlin managed to stabilize the situation by eliminating the leader of the uprising. However, the system can go wrong at any moment.
“From the outside it is difficult to understand what is happening inside the Kremlin “elites”… However, the movements that are currently taking place there may result in unexpected reshuffles and results. The Kremlin’s plan is to wait and see if Western support for Ukraine wanes. However, even in this case, the tension within the “elites” will not disappear. The Russian economy will remain under restrictions, increasing divisions within the Kremlin and making a power struggle more likely.“- note Fix and Snegovaya.
They predict that the next rulers of Russia will be representatives of the Putin regime.
“Given the omnipresence of the state, the weakness of Russian civil society and historical precedents, Putin’s successor will likely emerge from within the current system“, experts say.
According to them, a sharp deterioration in the economy or failures at the front in Ukraine may prompt a change in power in the Russian Federation.
Fix and Snow consider three scenarios for a change of power in the Russian Federation to be probable.
In the first case, an even more radical and militant character than Putin will come to the Kremlin. In this case, the dictator will be eliminated as a person who stands in the way of a decisive victory in Ukraine. In this case, Russia will face global militarization and increased repression.
The second option is the coming to power of a slightly less militant character than Putin. He will not be as radical, but will try to keep the regime intact and continue the policy of authoritarianism. Such a character would be focused on maintaining internal stability rather than confrontation with the West. The successor, experts note, will be open to compromise on the issue of war, but will not give an order for the withdrawal of troops from Ukraine.
The third scenario is fragmentation.
“In this case, a change in leadership will lead to fragmentation of federal power and undermine Moscow’s control over the regions. As a result, Russia will find itself closed in on itself, engulfed in internal tensions and disputes between centers and regions“, experts predicted.
They ruled out a pro-Western leader coming to power in the Russian Federation in the near future. The fact is that the Putin regime has so actively demonized and marginalized the image of the West in the eyes of Russians over the past decades that such a leader simply would not have any support.
The authors note that changes in power in Russia may pose both risks and opportunities for the United States. Support for Ukraine remains a key element of pressure on Russia and a way to influence internal processes in the country.
Earlier, Portnikov voiced three scenarios for the future of Ukraine.
Tamar also called the moment when the Putin regime “collapses like a house of cards.”
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2024-02-28 13:46:03
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