Prospect of War Rises Between Israel and Hezbollah
The possibility of a full-scale war between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia is deeply alarming to people on both sides of the border. Many see it as an inevitable consequence of Israel’s ongoing war against Hamas in Gaza. The potential conflict could be the most destructive that both sides have ever experienced. Israel and Hezbollah have learned lessons from their last war in 2006 and have been preparing for another conflict. Despite efforts by the United States to prevent escalation, war between Israel and Hezbollah remains a real possibility.
The 2006 war erupted after Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers and killed several others in a cross-border raid, six years after Israeli forces withdrew from south Lebanon. Israel launched a full-scale air and ground offensive to rescue the soldiers and destroy Hezbollah’s military capabilities. The war resulted in the leveling of large areas in south Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs, as well as the firing of thousands of rockets into northern Israel by Hezbollah. The conflict claimed the lives of around 1,200 Lebanese, mostly civilians, and 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers. A United Nations resolution mandated the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon and the creation of a demilitarized zone on Lebanon’s side of the border. However, despite the presence of U.N. peacekeepers, Hezbollah remains active in the border area, and Lebanon accuses Israel of violating its airspace and occupying its land.
The Likelihood of War
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned that an Israel-Hezbollah war would be a total disaster. Hezbollah, caught off-guard by Hamas’ attack on Israel in October, has been engaged in daily cross-border strikes with Israel. The Israeli military has also carried out targeted killings of Hezbollah and Hamas figures in Lebanon. Despite the threats and hostilities, neither side appears to want an all-out war. However, any miscalculation could trigger a broader and uncontrollable conflict, according to Andrea Tenenti, spokesperson for the U.N. peacekeeping mission in south Lebanon.
Preparedness of Israel and Hezbollah
Both Israel and Hezbollah have strengthened their capabilities since the 2006 war, but they also face vulnerabilities. Lebanon’s recent economic crisis has weakened its institutions, including the army and health system, and subjected it to a significant strain. Israel is experiencing economic and social strain from the war in Gaza, and the costs of a war with Lebanon would be even higher. Despite the desire to avoid war, Tal Beeri of the Alma Research and Education Center believes that an armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is inevitable, given the ongoing diplomatic gridlock and the growing threats posed by Hezbollah.
The Consequences of War
A full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah would likely spread to multiple fronts and involve other Iranian proxies in the region, possibly including Iran itself. Israel’s extensive air defense systems and protected infrastructure provide some defense against Hezbollah’s missile arsenal, but the mass barrage of rockets could overwhelm the defenses. Lebanon, on the other hand, lacks a comparable defense system, making it particularly vulnerable to Israeli air strikes. Civilian infrastructure on both sides would be devastated by the war.
It is imperative for both Israel and Hezbollah to find a diplomatic solution to prevent a catastrophic conflict. The international community, led by the United States, must exert its influence to bring the parties to the negotiating table and prevent the situation from spiraling out of control.
