Morgan Stanley analysts said: The prices of the most popular watches, such as Rolex Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet will fall further as the market is flooded with supply.
After the surge in 2021 and during the first quarter of 2022, the Daytona maker Rolex maker’s most popular model index – tracked by WatchCharts – fell 21% from the April market peak. The prices of Nautilus models, manufactured by Patek Philippe, have fallen by an average of 19% on the secondary market, while those of Audemars Piguet’s Royal Oak have fallen by 15% from the peak.
In a recent report, Morgan Stanley analysts, including Edward Oppen, argue that prices are likely to continue to fall due to a “dramatic” increase in supply.
“So far we have seen a significant increase in watch inventory in the general secondary watch market as a result of used watch dealers and retail investors offloading their inventory,” Morgan Stanley wrote in the report.
“Given the current inventory of available-for-sale watches and the general deterioration in the environment, we expect secondary market watch prices to contract quarterly from now on,” analysts said.
The most sought after models of the “Big Three” – Rolex, Patek and Audemars Piguet – account for 71% of the total value traded in the secondary luxury watch market. WatchCharts Comprehensive Market Index prices, which includes other brands, fell 9% in the third quarter of this year compared to the second quarter, according to “Bloomberg” and seen by “Al Arabiya.net”.
The report identifies some Swiss watch brands that are bucking the downward trend in prices. Even with lower Rolex and Patek prices, LVMH-owned Bvlgari models rose 1%, Richemont’s A. Lange & Sohne price rose 3%, and the Girard Perregaux brand rose 5% .
