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Alexey Razin
The events of the spring of 2022 initially raised prices for materials for the production of traction batteries for electric vehicles, but by the beginning of 2023, Elon Musk began to aggressively reduce prices for Tesla products, winning back a series of increases from the previous year. Goldman Sachs analysts generally believe that by 2025, the cost of storing 1 kWh of electricity in traction batteries will decrease by 40%, and not by 33% compared to 2022.
Image source: NIO
In absolute terms this would mean, as explained Electrek, that by the middle of the decade the cost of storing 1 kWh of electricity in traction batteries will drop to $99, and this milestone is considered a turning point for the massive expansion of electric vehicles on the market. In modern conditions, the cost of the traction battery forms up to 40% of the price of an electric vehicle, and an active reduction in this indicator can contribute to the growth in popularity of this type of vehicle.
Up to half of the reduction in the cost of traction batteries achieved by 2025, according to Goldman Sachs analysts, will be achieved by reducing prices for key components such as lithium, nickel and cobalt. Overall, from 2023 to 2030, the cost of traction batteries will decrease by an average of 11% per year. By the end of the decade, the cost of storing 1 kWh of electricity in traction batteries will drop below $80.
Image source: Goldman Sachs
Somewhere from 2025, the share of the cost of materials for the manufacture of cathodes in this cost structure will stabilize at the same level as materials for the manufacture of anodes. In the second half of the decade, optimization will be achieved mainly by reducing the cost of packing cells into the battery; manufacturers will also reduce operating costs and sacrifice profit margins. The bulk of the savings achieved in the period from 2022 to 2025 will be achieved by reducing the cost of materials used for the production of cathodes. In their analysis, Goldman Sachs looks at costs at the level of the entire traction battery, rather than individual battery cells.
2023-11-21 10:48:00
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