The price of gas in Europe will drop dramatically in the winter, Goldman Sachs predicts

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Goldman Sachs analysts believe gas prices are expected to fall by more than half this winter as EU countries’ efforts to avoid a large deficit are likely to have proved effective.

The bank expects wholesale natural gas prices in Europe to drop from around EUR 215 per megawatt hour to EUR 100 per MWh by the end of the first quarter of next year, assuming typical winter weather conditions. This is well below the € 213 forecast previously.

As a reason for the rapid rise in gas prices and the expected decline, the bank cites it European countries were quick to fill their gas deposits before winter, when Russia “Gazprom“Reduced supplies. This has also made market prices unusually high.

Goldman Sachs analysts write: “A zero export reduction of NS1 leaves northwestern Europe without Russian gas. And while we often hear the question of how this will affect storage, we believe a better approach is to ask how it will affect storage. prices “. They believe that Europe is on the right track both to reduce consumption and to secure winter.

They expect storage to be 90% full on average by the end of October. While the target set by the EU was to reach 80% by 1 November.

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