A possible vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson by his party colleagues will be so humiliating that the prime minister may withdraw in advance, the British professor believes.
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– I think it is unlikely that he will survive a vote if it comes to that.
This is what political professor at the London School of Economics, Tony Travers, tells VG.
But the big question right now is whether a motion of censure will be filed against Boris Johnson internally in his own party, and thus become the poll. For that to happen, at least 54 of their MPs must send letters to the so-called 1922 committee.
Only today it is according to Sky News sent 12 such letters. More have been sent before, and it is expected that even more will be sent. But so far no one knows exactly how many. Only four have actually confirmed that they have done so. One of them, Christian Wakeford, announced on Wednesday the transition from the Conservatives to the other major party, Labor.
– This is clearly a very serious situation for the Prime Minister. He is dependent on the trust of the elected representatives in his party. His problem is that there is a conservative massacre in the local elections in May, and that more and more of the party’s MPs seem to believe that the chances that they will lose their seats in the next national election are now increasing with him as leader, says Travers.
At the same time, the professor points out that Johnson is known as a “fantastic survivor” and that it has always been difficult to get rid of leaders of the Conservatives, no matter how unpopular they have become.
– Therefore, I still think that at the moment it is more likely that he survives than not (that there will not be at least 54 letters journ.anm.), But the situation is by no means good for him.
“Improbably stupid”
The quote above was given by Travers to VG at 11.20 on Wednesday. At 13.00, the weekly question time in the House of Commons of the British Parliament began. It, Travers said, had the potential to change his mind about Johnson’s chances of survival as prime minister.
The ever-increasing number of “party in the middle of a pandemic” scandal was again a hot topic.
British media have reported at least eleven parties that allegedly took place either in the prime minister’s residence or in other government premises between May 2020 and April 2021, writes Reuters. Johnson has apologized for the parties several times, but has, among other things, claimed that he thought he was there as part of a job event. Apologies that have been described by many as pathetic.
A party colleague has according to Sky News said Johnson has been “improbably stupid.”
Johnson has refused to comply with demands that he should resign, as the opposition, and thus more and more of his own, he believes should. He did the same when he was asked directly in the House of Commons on Wednesday if he now wants to resign:
– No, but as I said last week, I apologize for the mistakes that were made, Johnson replied, who again – and time and time again – referred to the ongoing investigation of the many parties, and said that Parliament must wait for the conclusion of the comes next week before he will give a proper answer to the question.
Nor did he answer critical questions about parties, or his previously shifting explanations around them. He referred exclusively to the investigation.
– Shocking
One of Johnson’s own, the veteran and former Brexit minister, David Davis, spoke during Question Time and told how he had defended and supported the Prime Minister for a long time. But he also said he expects leaders to take responsibility for their actions. Something he was clear that Johnson no longer does. He thus demanded the resignation of his leader:
– Despite all the good you have done, you have sat for too long. For God’s sake, go!
The question now is whether enough of Johnson’s own supporters Davis, and believes the prime minister must go.
– The statement from Davis was quite shocking, but despite it, I still think there is the greatest chance that Johnson will survive. His performance today was robust. He showed self-confidence, says Travers to VG after question time.
–Thus, he does not think that there will be as many as 54 conservatives who ask for Johnson’s resignation. He still does not dare to be oblique when VG talks to him at 3 p.m.
– We do not know enough about the effect of question time yet, but towards the end of the day we will probably have a clearer picture, says the professor.
– Very humiliating
In any case, Travers believes Johnson made a far better performance on Wednesday than during a TV interview with Sky News on Tuesday.
– Then it seemed as if he had given up. It was a very sad performance. During question time, he did not appear as someone who wished it was over, says the expert.
Several thought Johnson on Tuesday appeared to be a broken man. according to Daily Telegraph MPs who attended a meeting with Johnson yesterday have said that he was in tears when he tried to beg them to continue to give him confidence.
Also last week, Johnson had to answer for the party accusations in question time:
If he receives 54 or more letters of no confidence against him, and there is a vote where he must get at least half of his party colleagues’ votes to continue, then Travers does not think he will survive as prime minister.
But it is not a given that there will actually be a vote even if at least 54 letters are sent.
– I think it is more likely that he then withdraws before they will vote. It is very humiliating with such a vote, Travers points out, and says the situation reminds him of when confidence in Margaret Thatcher disappeared like sand in an hourglass in 1990.
Professor Travers also points out that it does not have to be such a big downturn for Boris Johnson to leave politics.
– His unique personality is not optimal for gaining great trust in the population, but he is a person who can have a great career – and earn much more money – elsewhere.
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