Preparations for the elections in Turkey, scheduled for June 2023, have started ahead of schedule. A demonstration was held in Istanbul on Thursday in support of the mayor of the city, Ekrem Imamoglu, sentenced the day before to two years and seven months in prison. The court’s verdict also includes a five-year ban from political activity. Imamoglu was supposed to challenge the current president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in the elections. However, it is possible that, taking into account the appeal, the verdict will not have time to enter into force, and the politician will still be able to run. So, according to Kommersant’s interlocutors, the actions of the authorities will only help his opponents. If earlier there were disagreements within the opposition about who to nominate as the sole candidate, now the issue has resolved itself.
A large-scale demonstration was held in Istanbul on Thursday with the participation of all the main opposition forces of the country – in the Turkish press they are called the “table of six”, by the number of political parties. The reason was the verdict handed down on Wednesday evening to the mayor of the city, Ekrem Imamoglu. He has been accused of insulting government officials. “Those who canceled the election results are idiots,” the politician said in 2019, soon after the country’s Central Election Commission decided to schedule a repeat vote in Istanbul. Imamoglu was opposed by the country’s former prime minister, Binali Yildirim, but he also won in the second ballot. At the time, many pundits argued that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s reign was heading towards decline, and that it would be people like Ekrem Imamoglu who would deal him a major blow in the years to come.
And now, six months before the presidential and parliamentary elections, the Istanbul court has sentenced the mayor of the Turkish capital to two years and seven months in prison. A further punishment was a five-year ban on political activity.
However, Mr. Imamoglu did not end up in a pre-trial detention center and went straight from the courtroom to a rally by his supporters. For the verdict to take effect, it must be confirmed by a higher court. “Turkey is a rule of law, the process is ongoing, no one has the right to give instructions to representatives of the judicial branch of government,” Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag said on Thursday. Wednesday is not definitive, the way is open for an appeal”.
Turkish political analysts will not discount Ekrem Imamoglu’s candidacy. “Practice shows that the courts in such cases last for several years,” columnist and political scientist Hakan Aksai told Kommersant, “Definitely Erdogan will try to speed up the process this time, because he is really afraid of competition with Imamoglu. Erdogan can be seen in this policy: he was also the mayor of Istanbul, he was also persecuted and finally gained popularity on this wave (the Turkish people are very fond of the offended.) But over the years of power Erdogan has lost touch with reality, and it is difficult oppose him. Whatever compromising evidence he provides, they are unlikely to believe it.
It should be noted that in Turkey in recent months there has been a discussion about who exactly the opposition should nominate as the sole presidential candidate. The task is difficult: the candidate must simultaneously satisfy the demands of secular circles and those Islamists who oppose the current authorities, as well as Turkish nationalists and Kurds.
It is believed that Ekrem Imamoglu became mayor of Istanbul precisely because he showed the electorate his versatility: he posed for a photo with his wife dressed in European style and with his mother, who wears a traditional headscarf.
And although Mr Imamoglu has openly collaborated with the political right, a Kommersant correspondent who watched the election overheard a woman in the Kurdish district of Istanbul say: “I think he is as honest as Selahattin Demirtas.” Recall that Mr. Demirtas is the head of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party, which is in custody.
Other potential candidates are Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas and Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. But each of them has its drawbacks: Mansur Yavas is known for his nationalist views, which will clearly alienate part of the electorate, and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is a senior politician (73 years old) who has been opposing Recep Tayyip Erdogan for many years, but without success.
Now, Ekrem Imamoglu has gained an even bigger lead and his supporters in the opposition camp are doing their best to back him up. For example, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu even cut short his trip to Germany to be next to the mayor of Istanbul for a rally on Thursday.
“Before, there were disputes in the opposition, but now Ekrem Imamoglu is perceived as the undisputed leader. Kılıçdaroğlu, who wanted to become a candidate, will apparently give up his ambitions and Mansur Yavash will simply fade into the background. I liked the wording that Erdogan himself chose his opponent, ”Yashar Niyazbayev, the author of the Turkish Agenda Telegram channel, told Kommersant.
However, a Kommersant source close to Ekrem Imamoglu noted that there is still no complete certainty with the nomination of just one opposition candidate, precisely because of Kemal Kilychdaroglu’s ambitions.
For example, in an interview with the Yeni Safak newspaper, he said that he “wants to run”, but “the important thing is the future of the country”, the decision will not be made by him, but by all six leaders of the opposition forces .
“Ekrem İmamoğlu has really come forward, but maybe the senior CHP leader hasn’t fully realized it yet. Kılıçdaroglu talks a lot about what he will do after taking power, although this is not yet guaranteed. Polite but firm statements are being exchanged between him and the mayor of Istanbul, which indicate the ambitions of the politicians,” Kommersant’s source said. For example, Mr. Kılıçdaroglu tweeted that the mayor is supported by all of Istanbul, 16 million people. And his rival literally a few minutes later replied that he was fighting for the future of 86 million Turkey.
