The Potential Impact of Guatemala’s Election and the Fight Against Corruption

Bernardo Arevalo, a 64-year-old sociologist and anti-corruption campaigner, has defied expectations by securing a top spot in the first round of Guatemala’s presidential election. Arevalo, the son of former President Juan Jose Arevalo, came in second place with just under 12% of the vote, a significant achievement in a race where no candidate won more than 16% of votes. His success can be attributed to the exclusion of several popular candidates who posed a challenge to the status quo, as well as public discontent with the other candidates, as evidenced by the high number of blank ballots.

However, there are now doubts being cast over the election results, with some denying the legitimacy of the outcome. Even the U.S. government has expressed concerns about possible interference in Guatemala’s presidential election. The election in this small Central American nation, with its close ties to the United States and its role in securing the southern border, could have far-reaching implications.

The Biden administration may find itself facing a familiar situation, as it has already dealt with a surge in migration triggered by the fallout of the presidential elections in neighboring Nicaragua. President Daniel Ortega locked up political opponents ahead of the elections in 2021, leading to a significant increase in Nicaraguans seeking refuge in the United States. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection encountered Nicaraguan migrants nearly 165,000 times in fiscal year 2022.

Arevalo’s appeal lies in his sincerity and academic background, which resonated with young voters. Despite lacking the populist appeal of other candidates, Arevalo’s straightforward approach and focus on his anti-corruption platform struck a chord with the electorate. In contrast, one of the excluded candidates, conservative businessman Carlos Pineda, gained early popularity through his use of TikTok videos.

The vote count in Guatemala has been delayed due to allegations of counting irregularities raised by several parties. Guatemala’s top court has frozen the formal certification of the first-round results and ordered a review of contested vote tallies. This intervention is seen as a delaying tactic by the establishment factions in Guatemala, who are seeking to cast doubt on the integrity of the vote. They are buying time to coordinate in case Arevalo, who has promised sweeping anti-corruption reforms, emerges as the winner in the second round.

The outcome of the election will determine whether Guatemala experiences continuity or change. Sandra Torres, a veteran political operator who has faced corruption allegations, represents continuity, while Arevalo symbolizes change. Arevalo’s father was president before being overthrown in a CIA-backed coup in 1954, which led to a civil war and decades of corruption.

The election results in Guatemala have implications for emigration flows and U.S. border policy. More than 220,000 Guatemalans crossed into the U.S. via the Mexico border in 2022. In an effort to manage irregular migration, the U.S. and Guatemala announced a pilot program in June. However, if the first-round results are undermined, it could pose a grave threat to democracy and potentially lead to an increase in migration.

Guatemala, like other Central American nations, lacks institutional mechanisms to fight corruption, which robs people of their future and drives them to seek opportunities elsewhere. Arevalo’s popularity among young voters reflects their dissatisfaction

What potential consequences could arise from the doubts surrounding the transparency and fairness of the election process in Guatemala, particularly in relation to migration challenges and the United States’ strategic interests

Some of his competitors, his track record as an anti-corruption campaigner and his commitment to promoting social justice have garnered support from those who want real change in Guatemala. This comes at a time when corruption scandals have rocked the country and eroded public trust in the government.

However, the doubts surrounding the election results have raised concerns about the transparency and fairness of the process. Critics argue that the exclusion of popular candidates and possible interference could undermine the legitimacy of the outcome. This is particularly troubling given Guatemala’s strategic importance to the United States, especially in relation to border security.

The Biden administration is no stranger to dealing with migration challenges sparked by political instability in the region. The fallout from Nicaragua’s presidential elections in 2021 led to a surge in migration, with many Nicaraguans seeking refuge in the United States. If the situation in Guatemala becomes further destabilized due to doubts over the election results, the Biden administration could face another wave of migration from the region.

Bernardo Arevalo’s unexpected success can be attributed to his sincere approach, academic background, and commitment to fighting corruption and promoting social justice. These qualities have resonated with young voters who are eager for genuine change. While he may not possess the same populist appeal as some of his competitors, many believe that his integrity and dedication make him a compelling choice for Guatemala’s future.

It remains to be seen how the election controversy will unfold and what impact it will have on Guatemala’s political landscape. However, one thing is clear – the outcome of this election has far-reaching implications, both for the people of Guatemala and for the relationships between Guatemala and the United States.