JAKARTA, SENAYANPOST.com – Data gathered from NASA spacecraft visits to asteroid Bennu reveal that future generations will have to keep an eye on the massive space rock as it passes Earth in the 22nd century.
The researchers used information from the Osiris-Rex mission, which spent more than two years orbiting, studying and even sampling Bennu to get a better idea of its future path through the inner solar system.
They found the probability that the 1,700-foot (518-meter) rock will impact our planet in the future is actually slightly higher than previously thought.
“The possibility of an impact remains small,” said Davide Farnocchia of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (Cneos) as quoted by Tempo from CNET, Wednesday (11/8).
That probability is about 1 in 1,750, or 0.06 percent, between now and 2300, and we can rule out a possible impact between today and 2135. That is the year Bennu will be closer to Earth than the moon in September.
Farnocchia explained there was no threat of a collision during the close, but prior to Osiris-Rex, there was some significant uncertainty about how some effects, such as our planet’s gravity, could alter Bennu’s path, which might make further impacts more likely.
The research team used the Osiris-Rex data to look at everything from the possible influence of the spacecraft itself (the model says it didn’t change the asteroid’s path), to the tiny force that the sun’s heat can exert on small objects, called the Yarkovsky effect.
“The effect on Bennu is equivalent to the weight of three grapes constantly working on the asteroid,” said Steve Chesley, senior research scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “Small, yes, but significant when determining Bennu’s likely future impact over the decades and centuries to come.”
Farnocchia, Chesley and several other colleagues wrote a study on Bennu’s future travels which was published in the latest issue of the journal Icarus.
Basically, the new research allowed humanity to continue to dispel Bennu’s anxiety even further. We can now say with confidence that there is nothing to worry about until 2135, and probably nothing to worry about until at least 2300, but you can bet that researchers in the coming years will be closely watching the asteroid’s itinerary for September. 2182.
Specifically, September 24, 2182, is the single most significant date in Bennu’s itinerary as it has a 0.04 percent chance of impacting Earth on that day.
Another way of looking at it, of course, is that there’s a 99.96 chance it won’t hit us.
“We shouldn’t worry too much about it,” Farnocchia repeated. “We have time to keep track of the asteroid.”
– .
