Baiba Zukula, Director of the Social Statistics Department of the CSB, points out that the decrease in the population during the last year is comparable to the current population of Salaspils, and is related to a negative natural increase, with mortality significantly exceeding birth rate and no longer migration.
The number of population decreased faster last year – by 0.92% compared to 0.76% a year earlier, including a decrease of 0.91% due to negative natural growth and 0.01% due to migration. Along with the increase in the number of Ukrainian citizens who have applied for temporary protection of the Latvian state, it is expected that the positive dynamics of migration could continue.
Over the last five years, negative natural growth has far outweighed the gap between negative migration flows. This trend increased last year during the Covid-19 pandemic, with rising mortality, especially in January and autumn.
Last year, 17,400 children were born in Latvia – 132 children or 0.8% less than in 2020, which is the lowest figure in the last hundred years, but 34,600 people died – 5,746 or 19.9% more. During the last 100 years (excluding the war years), such a high mortality rate was observed only in the 1990s.
Last year, the mortality rate was twice as high as the birth rate – 17,200 more people died than were born (11,300 in 2020), and this is the highest rate of negative natural growth since 1995. On the other hand, as a result of long-term international migration, the population decreased by only 286 people, which is the lowest figure since regaining independence.
With the end of the pandemic, immigration has risen sharply, even to pre-pandemic levels. Compared to 2020, the number of immigrants has increased by 43.5%, but the number of emigrants – only by 8.2%. 12,700 inhabitants came to Latvia from abroad (by 3,800 more than in 2020), but almost 13,000 – 1,000 more.
3,700 or 29.1% of immigrants came from European Union countries. 2,500 people or 19.7% of the total number of immigrants came from Great Britain (2,000 in 2020). The number of immigrants from the CIS countries has more than doubled – 3,100 immigrants, which is 1,200 or 60.5% more than in 2020, including 1,600 immigrants from Russia and 700 from Belarus in 2021. Last year, 1,400 immigrants arrived from Ukraine.
In 2021, almost 7,000 or 54.8% of immigrants were remigrants – citizens and non-citizens of Latvia, as well as residents whose nationality is different, but whose country of birth is Latvia (4,700 or 53% in 2020). The remaining part consists of immigrants who have no legal obligations with Latvia so far.
Last year, almost 13,000 people left Latvia. In 2021, 8,300 emigrated to the European Union, which was 4.3% more than a year earlier. Emigration to Great Britain increased by 35.5% in 2021 – 2,500 emigrated (1,900 in 2020). 2,500 people left for Germany, or 10.9% more than in 2020. Emigration to the CIS countries decreased significantly – by 40.1%. 71.4% of emigrants were Latvian citizens (68.9% in 2020).
The small increase in the birth rate in 2013-2016 contributed to the increase in the number of children and young people, but since 2017 the birth rate has been decreasing, and in 2021, 4,500 fewer children were born than in 2016. The number of children under the age of 14 decreased by 2,986 last year, but their share is 16% of the total population for the third year in a row.
The population aged 15-64 continued to decline by 12,400 or 1%. Unlike in previous years, when the trend of senior growth was observed, last year the number of population over 65 also slightly decreased – in 2021 by 2100 or 0.5%, however, their share in the total population increased from 20.8% to 20.9 %. The average age of the population in Latvia is 42.9 years. In the regions it ranges from 40.7 years in Pieriga to 45.1 years in Latgale.
At the beginning of 2022, 49.2% of adult men (widows – 3.4%) and 41.4% of women were married (widows – 16.1%), while 35.1% of men and 24.6% of women were unmarried. Of the unmarried adult population of the respective sex, 70.4% were men and 64% were women under 39 years of age.
Last year, the country was home to 1.282 million or 68% of the urban population and 593,000 or 32% of the rural population.
More than half or 53% of the country’s population lives in Riga and Pieriga. In recent years, there has been a tendency for residents of the capital to often move to Pieriga.
In 2021, the population increased only in Pieriga – by 1.3% or 4700, while the largest decrease was in Latgale – by 2.2% (5500), Vidzeme – by 1.4% (2600), Kurzeme – by 1, 2% (2800), in Zemgale – by 1.1% (2500). The population of Riga decreased by 1.4% or 8,800.
Riga has a population of less than 606,000, which is 32% of the country’s population and 47% of the city’s population.
Last year, the population also decreased in nine out of ten cities, except for Jurmala, where there was an increase of 0.6% or 313 people. The population decreased the most in Daugavpils – by 1.9% (1507 people), in Riga – by 1.4% (8816), in Rēzekne and Ventspils – by 1.3% (respectively 358 and 417), in Jelgava – by 1.2% (642), in Jēkabpils – by 1% (211), in Liepāja and Valmiera – by 0.9% (604 and 214, respectively), but the least in Ogre – by 0.5% (106). In all these cities, the number of deaths exceeded the number of births. There was a positive migration balance in Jurmala, Jekabpils and Ogre.
In 2021, the population increased in eight counties out of 36. The increase in the population was observed only in Pieriga counties – Ādaži, Ķekava, Mārupe, Olaine, Ropaži, Salaspils, Saulkrasti, Sigulda municipalities. There was a positive migration balance in all these counties, but only in Mārupe, Ķekava and Ropaži counties. The largest increase in the population was in Mārupe municipality – 4.9% or 1607 people.
In terms of population, the largest are Ogre – 57,600 – and Valmiera – 50,800 – municipalities, the smallest – Valka municipality with 7,500 inhabitants and Varakļāni municipality with only 2,900 inhabitants.
The number of children under 14 in 2021 increased only in the Pieriga region – by 1.6% or 1100, but decreased the most in Latgale (by 2.6% or 900) and Riga (by 2.2% or 2100). The largest share of children and adolescents (0-14 years) was in Pieriga – 18.8% of the total population of the region, the smallest – in Latgale – 13.6%. The proportion of children in national cities ranged from 18.4% in Jelgava to 14.6% in Daugavpils. The youngest was Mārupe municipality – 27.3% of the total population were children under the age of 14, but in Krāslava and Augšdaugava municipalities – only 11.3 and 11.8%, respectively.
The proportion of the population aged 15-64 varies from 62.3% in Kurzeme to 63.6% in Latgale. The working age population increased only in Pieriga – by 2800, decreased the most in Riga – by 5600 and in Latgale – by 3600. The share of working age population in the national cities varies from 63.3% in Riga to 60.6% in Valmiera. The smallest population at this age was in Valka municipality (59.9%), but the largest in Rēzekne municipality (66.6%).
In all regions, except Pieriga, more than a fifth of the population is over 65 years of age (most in Latgale – 22.8%, least in Pieriga – 18.1%). In the national cities, the largest share of the population over the age of 65 is in Ventspils (23.8%), but the smallest share in Jelgava – 19.5%. The oldest are Valka and Krāslava municipalities – 25.3% and 24.7% of the population are over the age of 65, respectively, the smallest is in Mārupe municipality – 10.1%.
Estonia has seen a slight increase in population over the last seven years, while Lithuania has seen a slight decrease. At the beginning of 2022, the population in Estonia was 1.332 million, but in Lithuania – 2.795 million according to preliminary estimates.
Both countries show a negative natural increase, while the migration balance has been positive in Estonia for the seventh year in a row (returning to pre-pandemic levels) and in Lithuania for the third time. In Estonia, the natural increase was negative – minus 5,300 people, but the migration balance was positive – 7,000 people. In Lithuania, the natural increase was negative – minus 24,400 inhabitants, and the net migration was positive – 19,700 people.
The annual population estimate has been prepared using data from the Register of Natural Persons and other administrative sources of the Office of Citizenship and Migration Affairs.
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