By Carlos A. Moreno |
Rio de Janeiro (EFE).- The polarization that divides Brazil between the current president, the progressive Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and his predecessor, the far-right leader Jair Bolsonaro, was the great defeat in the municipal elections on Sunday, in the that the center and the center-right were the big winners.
Lula and Bolsonaro have recorded several losses, some important that jeopardize their projects for the 2026 presidential elections, and the center emerged as an alternative in a country that was experiencing high polarization, according to analysts consulted by EFE.
“The great winner in the municipal elections was the rational center-right, the one that participates in the democratic game and rejects radicalism. Polarization has been reduced and I hope it continues that way,” said political scientist José Luiz Niemeyer, professor at the Ibmec Institute.
For Marco Antonio Carvalho Teixeira, coordinator of master’s degrees in public policies at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), the main conclusions were that the polarization that was anticipated for the 2026 elections did not occur; that alternatives to both leaders emerged and that any electoral project for 2026 has to take the center into account.
Victories and defeats
The forces that won the most mayoralties were the Social Democratic Party (PSD), with 887; the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), with 854; the Progressive Party (PP), with 747, and Unión Brasil, with 584.
They are four center and center-right forces that are totally pragmatic and that, due to the positions offered, support Lula’s Government as well as supported Bolsonaro’s management.
The Liberal Party (PL), led by Bolsonaro, was the fifth with the most mayoralties, with 517, and the Workers’ Party, the party founded by Lula, had to resign itself to ninth place, with 252.
Combo of photographs of the mayor of São Paulo, Ricardo Nunes (2i), with the former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro (1i) (2019-2022) and the deputy Guilherme Boulos (2d), candidate supported by the Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (1d). EFE/ Sebastiao Moreira
Lula’s main defeat was in the dispute for the Mayor of São Paulo, the largest city in the country, in which he opted for deputy Guilherme Boulos, whom he wanted to turn into an alternative leader for the left.
But Boulos was defeated by the current mayor of São Paulo, Ricardo Nunes, a member of the MDB with little political weight and charisma who obtained close to 60% of the votes.
Although he had a timid support from Bolsonaro, Nunes attributed his victory to the public and massive support he received from the governor of São Paulo, Tarcisio de Freitas, a minister in the government of the far-right leader and who emerges as a presidential alternative for the more moderate right.
Bolsonaro and Lula
Although Bolsonaro’s party was the one that won the most mayoralties among the 103 cities with more than 200,000 inhabitants in Brazil, with 16 municipal governments, the far-right leader lost in the disputes on which he focused the most and that interested him the most.
“Bolsonaro’s candidate in Goiania was defeated by another right-wing candidate, which showed a schism between Bolsonaro supporters that could have national consequences,” according to Teixeira.
The dispute in Goiania placed Bolsonaro and the governor of the state of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado, on opposite sides, who has questioned the former president’s leadership and does not deny his intention to aspire to the presidency as a right-wing candidate.
Although Bolsonaro hopes to reverse the political disqualification that prevents him from contesting the 2026 presidential elections, two governors from a less radical right who compete for prominence with the ultra leader came out stronger in the municipal elections: Tarcisio de Freitas and Ronaldo Caiado.
Bolsonaro also ceased to be unanimous among the most radical after the emergence of Pablo Marçal, a businessman who gained national notoriety as the third most voted candidate in the dispute for mayor of São Paulo.
On the left side, the only candidate with national projection continues to be Lula, but it is still not clear if he will try for re-election in 2026, when he will be 81 years old, or if he will support a PT candidate such as the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad. , which is not even unanimity in his party, says Niemeyer.
