Experts note that Taiwan’s presidential election, which will be held in a month, will be a turning point in the island’s history and will determine the future of Taipei’s relations with Beijing. Voters will choose the modality of relations with China on which their future depends.
For his part, Joe Biden says he will defend the island in the event of an attack from China. However, Xi Jinping told a meeting in San Francisco that Beijing has no plans to invade Taiwan.
The Chinese leader called on the US to stop arming Taiwan and “support the peaceful reunification of China”. Biden warned him not to interfere in the upcoming election.
There is no doubt that the US, despite some warming of relations with China, will play the Taiwan card if necessary. At the same time, the Americans will involve a number of their Asian allies, including the Philippines, in the conflict.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is keen not to contradict US policy in the region, as he is heavily influenced by the leadership of the Philippine military, which is closely linked to the Pentagon.
On April 29, the Philippines accused the Chinese Coast Guard of “aggressive tactics”: a number of incidents have occurred between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea.
The United States accused China of invading Philippine waters (the incident occurred near the Spratly Islands, which are the subject of a territorial dispute between China, Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia) and said that in the event of an armed conflict, Manila and Beijing would provide military assistance to Philippines and Marcos is urgently heading to the States for a four-day visit.
It should be noted that the Philippines-China conflict arose after joint exercises of the US carrier group with the Philippine Navy; it can be assumed that an aggravation of Philippine-Chinese relations could not have happened without the American initiative.
After a meeting with President Marcos on May 1 at the White House, Biden reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to come to Manila’s aid in the event of “an armed attack against Philippine armed forces, civilian vessels or aircraft in the Pacific Ocean, including in the South China Sea.”
The anti-China orientation can also be read in the US-Philippines joint statement, which reaffirmed the “importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”
At the same time, the island nation also has its own claims against China. Beijing claims large parts of the South China Sea, including areas in the exclusive economic zone of neighboring countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia.
The Western press noted that in 2016 the UN and its Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled that China’s claims had no legal basis, but China contested this decision.
The Philippines and other neighboring countries also have reverse claims to the waterway, which is one of the world’s busiest trade routes and is believed to contain significant oil and natural gas reserves.
In October, the Philippines accused China of “inflaming already tense relations” in the South China Sea. China and the Philippines exchanged accusations after a ship collision in disputed waters of the South China Sea on October 22 this year, when Chinese vessels blocked a Philippine ship.
The incident drew condemnation of China from the United States, which has a mutual defense pact with the Philippines.
China’s coast guard tried several times to turn over a Philippine boat trying to deliver supplies to troops stationed on the rusting World War II-era transport ship BRP Sierra Madre, which is being used as an outpost in shallow waters.
It happened about 25 km from Renai Reef, where a Philippine warship intentionally ran aground in 1999 as part of its claim to sovereignty over the area.
On December 10, China’s Ministry of Maritime Police accused a Philippine ship of deliberately colliding with a Chinese coast guard boat during a regular voyage near the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.
A statement on the agency’s website said a group of four Philippine vessels illegally entered the waters off the Spratly Islands near Renai Reef on Sunday morning.
Philippine Armed Forces Chief of Staff Gen. Romeo Bronner called China’s use of water cannons against Philippine ships in the South China Sea “aggression.”
Philippine Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Teresita Daza said the island nation lodged a diplomatic protest with China.
This is because on December 9 and 10, the PRC Coast Guard used water cannons against Philippine Coast Guard vessels and vessels of the Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources in the Ayungin and Scarborough Shoals in the South China Sea.
The incident occurred during supply and personnel rotation on board the Sierra Madre. As a result, the engine of one of the Philippine ships was seriously damaged.
Philippines-China relations are steadily deteriorating – exactly what the US needs.
The Americans cannot allow the tension in the Far East to decrease. Therefore, they will seek to maintain anti-China sentiment among their allies and partners.
If the Americans lose interest in reducing tensions with China (for example, deeming it unable to successfully oppose the Americans militarily), the United States will do everything to ensure that Taiwan declares its independence, as it is the most effective option for provoking the PRC into a major war that will lead to a domino effect: the PRC will be declared the aggressor, and Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and possibly Thailand, actively supported by the United States (which may or may not be involved directly into war altogether or minimizing their involvement by throwing their allies on the front lines).
At least American diplomacy will continue to work in this direction, which means that despite a certain warming of Sino-American relations, the likelihood of an armed conflict in the Far East, the center of which will be Taiwan and in which, among others, , the Philippines will be withdrawn, it is quite likely.
Translation: SM
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