A kind of perfect storm is taking shape that stalks the electrical system, which could lead to energy rationing between January and March 2025, which could be anticipated as the Comptroller has reiterated in his recent statement. Its warning is clear: “if the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Mines and Energy, as well as the other competent entities such as the Superintendence of Public Services, do not take the pertinent measures and decisions, the financial situation of the providers may generate an imminent cessation in the provision of energy service, harming users.”
He basically referred to the pressing financial situation to which the companies providing energy services were exposed due to the burden caused by the suspension of the collection of the debt contracted by users for the tariff option, which is around $5 billion. , because despite the announcement by the President of the Republic, Gustavo Petro, and his Minister of Mines and Energy, Andrés Camacho, in the sense that the National Government would assume said debt, although only that corresponding to strata 1, 2 and 3 , which amounts to $2.8 billion, to date is still under discussion.
And, to aggravate the situation, the National Government owes the companies that provide energy services the sum of $1.7 billion for the consumption subsidy of strata 1, 2 and 3, which have been discounted in their invoices and the National Government nothing to reimburse them. Minister Camacho limits himself to saying that his office has already settled them and that he is waiting for the Ministry of Finance to issue them. The serious thing is that the liquidation does not give liquidity to the companies but rather the transfer, which is not made effective.
And on top of that, to the debt is added that the National Government has not budgeted the $1.2 billion corresponding to the last four months of this year, which is why it is unable to transfer it during this period and it will be up to Companies will wait to do so next year. There is no other. The request by Air-e to be intervened by the Superintendency, alleging its insolvency and lack of cash flow, was both the trigger and the iceberg of this announced crisis.
And more recently, the firm 2024) energy demand will be higher than the firm energy supply (OEF) of the reliability charge, which will barely reach 85,803 GWH/year. In such a way that if an El Niño occurs, which is just around the corner, “there would be discharges of up to 47% during the next summer season, a value higher than that presented in the latest El Niño phenomena. With this, “we would have minimum reservoir values at the end of the summer season, close to 25.3%, a level never seen in the operation during the last 30 years.” We are, then, facing a high-risk situation.
For this reason, generation at risk. This has forced a greater participation in generation to meet the demand of the thermal generation park. For this reason, it is even more worrying that, as announced by the president of Grupo Energía Bogotá (GEB), Juan Ricardo Ortega, we will soon go from the shortage of natural gas demanded by thermal plants to a supply deficit for the month of December, anticipating the Naturgas forecast, which projected it for 2025.
In fact, there are already reasons for concern, given that water contributions for September are 36% below the historical average and the aggregate level of the reservoirs, below 50%, is 24% lower than the historical average. This is because, against all forecasts, La Niña that was announced since June, in addition to being weak, has not consolidated and this phenomenon is entering a phase of dangerous neutrality. And the most worrying thing is the proximity of the months of December and January of next year, in which the predicted rainfall will be even lower than what is currently recorded.
Of great concern is the contrast between the proactivity of the Ministries of Environment and Housing, as well as the mayor of Bogotá, Carlos Fernando Galán, concerned about the low level of the reservoirs that serve the aqueducts, establishing savings measures and rational use of water by part of the users, with the passivity of the Ministry of Mines with respect to what is being recorded in relation to the reservoirs that serve the hydroelectric plants, especially the El Peñol, which serves the Guatapé hydroelectric plant, the only one with capacity regulation of more than one year (the others barely exceed four months), which has reached a critical level of only 45.48%!
As the president of Acolgen, Natalia Gutiérrez, points out, “the solution to the critical energy situation facing the country cannot wait any longer. The electricity shortage is just around the corner, so time is up to make decisions that eradicate, once and for all, the risk of a blackout.” Especially after the warning from analysis”, this is 2025 and 2026. It is time for Minister Camacho to abandon his denialism of the looming energy crisis to face it, before it is too late to act.
