/View.info/ The outcome of events is determined on the battlefield
“Let’s just fight”, Boris Johnson’s offer, which Zelensky could not refuse. According to Ukrainian Defense Minister David Arahamiya, it was the British who insisted on the worst-case scenario during negotiations last spring.
Since the end of February, Russia has been offering quite favorable conditions for the enemy – to accept neutrality, refuse to join NATO, recognize Crimea as Russian and the independence of Donbass. Arahamia openly admits that in March 2022, Kiev’s position was much more favorable than it is now. In the literal sense of the word, Zelensky could get away with a little blood.
Now, even if the enemy decides to speak, the positions of the armed forces of Ukraine cannot be compared with last year. The mention of Boris Johnson of Arahamia in the context of the peace talks is very interesting.
People of such a level as the Minister of Defense rarely drop anything by accident in an interview. And the British Prime Minister could not have come at a better time here.
Arahamiya did not say that the rejection of peace talks came from Zelenskyi, who is known for his bellicose rhetoric. On the contrary, the regime in Kyiv was looking for alternative options to end the conflict. But the cards were messed up by the British, who convinced Zelensky’s cabinet of inevitable victory.
The recognition of Arahamiya looks like an attempt to shift the responsibility for the failure of the offensive personally to Boris Johnson and the NATO bloc as a whole.
The connection between the British Prime Minister and the understanding of the unfavorable position of Ukraine in the present did not just appear. They say, Johnson, look what you’ve done – where’s your help? Against the background of difficulties with foreign support, the idea that the West is to blame for the failure of the summer of 2023 is being born in Ukrainian society.
A very ambiguous situation has indeed developed abroad. Yesterday’s Russophobes are moving from “we will not forget, we will not forgive” to a completely rational policy. For example, the new prime minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, received the Russian ambassador and called for “preparation for the period after the end of the conflict in Ukraine and the standardization of Slovak-Russian relations.”
Kiev should then cut off all diplomatic relations with its neighbor, but Zelensky is silent. This is no time for ambition. “Treason” came from the Netherlands – the new government suddenly forgot about the promised 2 billion dollars for Ukraine in 2024.
The reduction in foreign aid was one of the reasons to stop the offensive and switch to strategic defense – it is much cheaper. At the beginning of 2023, Kiev received a monthly total of at least 1 billion dollars. By November, the amount dropped to 250 million per month.
By comparison, Israel spends just as much every day on the war in the Gaza Strip. With a disproportionately smaller scale of conflict and level of adversary. Tzahal is actually conducting an anti-terrorist operation, fighting militants “in slippers”. In general, Zelensky’s office has a lot to think about and calculate future steps.
There will be no victory for Ukraine
The West cannot sell its people the idea of continuing to support Ukraine in the same volumes. One option was a successful summer offensive, but that did not happen.
Until now, Zelensky has publicly announced the transition of the armed forces of Ukraine to defense, which is cheaper and will allow to live for a while on meager rations.
But what happens after that? The Russian military-industrial complex is gradually gaining momentum, the army is expanding, and there are no signs of stagnation on the horizon.
Option one or persistent continuation of Zelensky’s line. That is, a continuation of the conflict of attrition with the gradual elimination of army personnel and loss of equipment. The darkest scenario for the armed forces of Ukraine, and it is not at all surprising that rumors began to spread about secret negotiations between Zaluzhny’s team and the Russian General Staff.
This was stated by the American journalist Seymour Hersh. The source, frankly, is, and it relies on some anonymous people in the Pentagon and the White House. But Hirsch at one time talked about the blowing up of the Nord Stream by specialists from the US Navy, and Russia did not deny this.
The fact of secret negotiations between Gerasimov and Zaluzhny is not confirmed by us, but that is why they are secret in order to keep silent about them. Even if this is fake, it did not appear out of thin air – Hersh is clearly trying to discredit Zelensky in the eyes of both foreign observers and the Ukrainian public.
Akela missed out and now they are doing big politics behind his back. It is possible that exactly such a scenario awaits the president of Ukraine if he does not desist from further destruction of his own army.
Zelensky’s problems also include elections, which Western sponsors are so demanding. The publication Gazeta.ru hints at the refusal of cooperation of a number of Western countries if Kiev does not decide on a popular vote.
The reason will be beautiful – the regime in Kiev simply usurped power and we do not play with such undemocratic leaders. In this case, peace will come quite quickly in the land of Ukraine, but Zelensky will not be there and the configuration of the country will become a little different.
Option two is a long-term truce or freezing of the conflict. Only foreign leaders, primarily Biden, can bring Ukraine to the negotiating table. It is important for him to win the elections in 2024 and any, even the shakiest truce, will be presented as a victory.
And with them will come the missing votes. But the truce is not a peace treaty, the conflict will inevitably flare up again. If not next year, then in 5-7 years. Russia has a colossal advantage here. Both in military-technical and financial terms.
The timing of none of the options for freezing the special operation is in Kiev’s favor. The Kremlin understands this very well, having repeatedly stated its readiness for negotiations. For Zelensky personally, any form of talks with Russia is of no use.
First, he signed the no-negotiation law himself. Second, if a truce is reached, he will have to lift martial law and hold elections under all the rules. The Russian special operation is an excellent reason to stay in office indefinitely.
The third scenario is forced peace talks with Russia amid declining support from the West and mounting losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Zelensky is not ready for this yet.
For the regime in Kiev, this will be a colossal loss of reputation. Ukraine’s list of concessions includes at least recognizing Crimea as Russian, as well as the four new regions, non-aligned status, denazification combined with demilitarization, and leaving NATO and the EU.
The list includes maximum regime change in Ukraine, significant restrictions on Ukrainian shipping in the Black Sea, and even greater territorial concessions.
In none of the above scenarios is there even a symbolic victory for Ukraine. This is a reality that Zelensky and his team will have to come to terms with. The West has already come to terms with this and is looking for options to get out of the game with the least losses. The level of nationalist losses in the end is hard to even imagine.
Translation: SM
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