According to the most recent poll by Maurice de Hond, CDA, VVD, and D66 would jointly lose seven seats compared to the March 17 elections if elections were held today. This is, the pillar writes in an explanation, because “the patience of the voter is starting to wane” after the many scandals of recent times, especially about the Supplement affair and what has become known as OmtzigtGate.
In the elections, the VVD took 34 seats. D66 got 24. And the CDA had to settle for 15 seats, which for that party was a loss of 4 seats. The VVD and D66, on the other hand, had a (small, in the case of the VVD) profit.
The wisdom of The Hague assumed and assumed that these parties form the core of a new cabinet to be formed. But if the formation breaks down, which can no longer be ruled out, it is quite possible that this core is further than ever from the required 75 seats and they will not need the help of one party to get a majority. , but from two or even three parties.
Because, says De Hond, if there were elections today, the CDA would have 12 seats. D66 would lose two and get 22 seats. And the VVD would have 32 seats, which is also a loss of two seats. This ‘coalition core’ would then amount to 64 seats, nowhere near enough for a strong government coalition.
The loss of those three old parties mainly goes to the new parties that have been established in recent years. The only older party that benefits is the PVV: from 17 to 18 seats. Forum for Democracy would come back with 9 seats in the Chamber if there were now elections, according to De Hond. The Party for the Animals and the BoerBurgerBeweging also increase one seat, to 7 and 2 seats respectively.
Below that, the even newer parties strike. FVD split-off JA21 is now virtually at 6 seats, which is a gain of +3 compared to the elections. The “pan-European party” Volt is also increasing: from 3 to 5 virtual seats. BIJ1 remains at 1 seat, but 50Plus loses one seat and would disappear completely from the House of Representatives in new elections. The ChristenUnie and the SGP are stable at resp. 5 and 3 seats.
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As a result of the “affairs” of recent times, support for the three core parties is therefore declining. On the other hand, it is mainly the new parties who are closer to the voter who benefit from this. Conservative right (PVV, FVD, JA21 and SGP) is now at 36 seats. The traditional socialist left (PvdA, SP, GroenLinks) are a lot lower with 25 seats.
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