The mathematician Prof. Nikolay Vitanov gave brief information about the operational situation for the pandemic on April 8, 2022. However, he made an important clarification: “In just one sentence – this is not a place for casting feelings, but for analysis. be removed “.
“Now for the pandemic. What’s happening
1. New members of the Moriarty Club – none. There are no new members of the Harry Seldon Club. The conditions for membership and candidate membership are clear to you. Take action.
2. The basic reproductive number – today is 0.92. It is below 1, so the scope of the infection continues to shrink. The health system continues to unload. The Harry Serdon script is stable. And there are practically no measures. Which means the sled is well reinforced down the slope.
You see, once you’ve done your billing, you can undo the measures before the predicted thresholds are reached. All you have to do is calculate that the sledge is well reinforced in the right direction. And his calculations to come out correct.
2. No superfire. There is no. Diffuse spread has died out. As expected. This is good. The new version of Omicron, if it wants to swirl, must set it on fire. I do not wish him success, on the contrary, you see that the system is moving in such a trajectory that this can be avoided.
Which is not easy, as you have practically no measures. That is why it is important to support Harry Seldon by following the recommended measures until April 20. The deal is this – you keep him stable, he finally deals with Omicron. The expectation was that a large enough percentage of the people would abide by the deal. That’s what happens.
3. No overcrowded hospitals. There are no overcrowded hospitals.
There is no. The number of cows employed to treat Kovid is declining.
This was to be expected. Beds that are being transferred to other needs continue to be vacated. There is no chaos, because there is already a good idea of how to reduce the number of beds. And things work the way you see them.
In Bulgaria, too, things may work. It’s simple – you have to take the trajectory of the social system out of the realm of bats and chaos and take it to the realm of trajectories where things work. This can be done for any social sphere. But not everyone can do it. Some do, and others, as you can see, envy.
4. No total lockdown. There is no. There won’t be. “Harry Seldon” did great here as well. This was announced in November last year, right?
6 months ago. Very long-term forecast. And true – right.
5. Mortality – is slowly declining. The number of days in which the deceased will be a single digit will increase.
That’s what Harry Seldon said. The average weekly mortality rate will drop to 10 per day, but slowly
7. And so – even today the social system is still moving on the pre-determined trajectory of the “Harry Seldon” script you announced months ago.. Things are under control. Is that correct? That’s right. Harry Seldon did the job. And it remains stable. Even when the measures are already only recommended.
It’s boring, I know. No action. Well, no. The social system is the right area of the huge social phase space and care is taken not to go out of this area. We are talking about the fight against the pandemic, in other areas the social system is not in the right area at all.
8. The cards today. There are no special changes. It is calm on the Greek border. The new version of Omicron is gone, in the sense that the effect of it is not visible. He may have appeared here and there, but you know our tactics – we turned off the diffuse spread, to ignite it, if possible.
The maps show you that there is still danger. The sleigh is reinforced in the right direction, but follow the deal with the “Harry Seldon” script – you keep it stable, it eliminates Omicron. The credit goes to those of you who keep Harry Seldon stable. As always, part of the Bulgarian people benefits from your efforts without contributing.
I am writing this to you because someone may ask why in many social spheres the social system is in the realm of problems and problems. So when I take the answer, do not miss this factor – it is very important.
Now for the war.
1. We agreed that this is not a place for casting feelings. Attempts at analysis have emerged, but their authors are so pro-Ukrainian that they take what they want for granted. Abe guys, the situation is like this – the Ukrainian army is storming bunkers and making sandwiches in apartment blocks in cities to use the civilian population as a human shield.
You know what it is sandwich – tanks and artillery lined up next to the block, inside the block – civilian floor, soldiers floor. The war is on Ukrainian territory. The Ukrainian state is falling apart.
Here are tons of problems to solve before Zelenski accepts the victory parade on Red Square. Take off your pink glasses and look at things realistically.
2. Just to remind you – my expectations were and are for long war, with many casualties from the Russian side. Right. A long, long time ago I wrote to you that the Russian group does not have the numbers to effectively encircle Kyiv or keep the whole of Ukraine occupied.
I wrote to you that Fr.talks and hostilities in western Ukraine are for parliamentthat the outcome of the war in eastern Ukraine will be decided at Kramatorsk. I just remind you what I wrote. IN
I see that other analysts are now trying to come up. Okay, you just have to prove yourself. And it happens with good forecasts, not by squatting against Vitanov and writing reviews, as he does not understand anything. It doesn’t happen that way. Vitanov showed some of the publications with mathematical analyzes of military actions.
Show yours so we can see how much you cost. Otherwise you are relieved a lot. Make predictions that are correct. Otherwise you lighten up even more.
3. The Russians do not use their heavy conventional weapons. Nor weapons of mass destruction. It is clear why – because there are no big battles in open spaces. Why the Ukrainian army is so afraid of attacks with chemical weapons.
It’s simple – they are packed in bunkers a few meters below the ground, and bunkers are quickly cleaned with gas. That’s why it’s all roaring and I’m seriously looking forward to a propaganda production but white helmets and chemical weapons attacks. The fact is that the Russians do not.
4. Mariupol falls. Ukrainian losses there are not small.
What is going on there now is called cleansing. We stopped counting the Ukrainian losses, didn’t we? Why? The losses at Mariupol are by no means small. This is not a surprise.
When you take a city, the enemy group goes there. It’s simple. The city is destroyed. And this is no surprise.
You remember sandwich tactics of the Ukrainian army – civilian floor, military floor in the apartment building. Is it forbidden? It is forbidden. And since it is forbidden, has it not been repealed? Is not.
Conclusion – there will be more destroyed cities and many more civilian casualties. It’s just that the tactics of fighting are like that.
Sandwich tactics do an ideal job for propaganda purposes – see them, shoot at civilians, destroy cities. The civilian population, fuck it, is already Russian-speaking in eastern Ukraine. And the Russians cannot use their super-heavy weapons.
Nice, huh? Whoever thinks that in war there are only angels on one side and only devils on the other, is cruelly mistaken. War is a much dirtier thing than you can imagine. Especially those who have not been to the barracks, you can not imagine anything.
5. The Kramatorsk arc. The battle began. So far, it is not very intensive, because the Ukrainian army has concreted in fortifications and is sitting in them.
They have correctly estimated their chances in an open battle. Otherwise, this same group should have attacked Donetsk and Luhansk now. I wonder what would happen to the civilian population there. But now in the bunker is better.
6. Technical refraction – That’s what we agreed to talk about in mid-April. We watch what happens.
We have arms supplies for the Ukrainian army. That’s good.
This will stabilize its ground forces. There is no fleet, practically no aviation. And, yes, tanks spring from the ground.
Refineries – no. Repair plants – no. What is left are parts of the ground forces. The Russians? Their losses are smaller than expected, they do not care much, they rotate parts of the group in Ukraine. They bring in fresh energy. Where will this lead? Answer yourself as he pleases.
7. Mental refraction.
We have already agreed on Bucha. It is not for Srebrenica. Another, more massive thing needs to be done. But these things are not organized that way. First-class directors are needed. And no. And time goes by. The opportunity to propagate genocide was wasted. But you know I grabbed my head from the amateurism of propaganda in this war.
I did not expect that the Americans would leave Ukrainians untrained on how to do it. You can’t try to create an angelic image of your army and demonize the other. They will immediately show you a video of an angelic Ukrainian soldier shooting a paid Russian one and going to the movies.
So, remember from me – war is a very dirty thing, do not be hooked on any propaganda.
I also wrote you that the more Ukraine sinks into ruins, the more aggressive Ukrainian propaganda will become.
Where is the problem here? Well, this propaganda is left to flow freely in our country. This will start to have an impact. And it will lead to problems when it becomes clear what those from Azov and others like in Donbass did. So let me write – be careful with propaganda. You know that in time I will remind you that I wrote this.
I wrote to the Russians that the situation is calmer in terms of propaganda. On their territory, Russian propaganda is working without interruption so far. The problem is in the long war – no matter how successful the propaganda is, the long war requires changes in it. But don’t bother – you’ll see what’s going on there. Here is another quote (correct from Sun Tzu) that describes the problem
…. Also, if the war drags on, the resources of the state will not be enough to withstand the pressure. Therefore, when the weapons are blunted, the flames extinguished, the forces exhausted, and the treasury emptied, other chiefs will suddenly appear to take advantage of your hopeless situation. And then no man, no matter how wise, will be able to prevent the consequences that will inevitably occur ….
8. On the fronts. There are no changes in essence. The battle near Kramatorsk is going on. I wrote to you – if they want to take Donbass, the Russians must eliminate this group. And they will try. Ukrainians are sitting in bunkers. And rightly so. Whoever shows up outside, nothing good awaits him. However, it is clear that this cannot go on forever.
Come on, enough for today. We are waiting to see what will happen.
And while we wait and watch, we remember Bismarck. Deto did not know how to return the bear to the lair and that the war was one of the three most lied events.
I wish you health and success and let the virus surround you. And let the war surround you “, wrote Prof. Vitanov in his personal Facebook profile.
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