/View.info/ The operation in Gaza is doomed. Israel did not take into account the main nuance. Even if Tzahal succeeds in eliminating Hamas, the key threat will not disappear. The prospects for the Tel Aviv land campaign were assessed by Alexander Kargin and Mikhail Yakushev.
On October 27, the Israel Defense Forces expanded its military operations in the Gaza Strip, but there is still no talk of a full-fledged ground operation. The main fighting is concentrated in the northern part of the Palestinian enclave.
According to a Times of Israel source, the IDF is now acting in accordance with the White House’s recommendations. Earlier, interlocutors of The Washington Post reported that the US leadership tried to convince Tel Aviv to be satisfied with targeted airstrikes and raids by special forces and not to move to a large-scale campaign.
Sources tell Bloomberg that the Israeli operation could take anywhere from six weeks to six months. According to their information, Tel Aviv intends to eliminate Hamas and provide a buffer zone on the border to prevent new attacks from the Palestinian side.
Israel and the Middle East expert Alexander Kargin and general director of the Katekhon analytical center Mikhail Yakushev assessed the prospects of the IS campaign in the program “Tsarigrad.Glavnoto”.
“It’s almost impossible”
The first of the Russian interlocutors recalled that in October, as a result of the escalation of the conflict in Israel, more than 1,300 civilians were killed:
“To understand how the Israelis see this, you have to look at the symmetry of the population. 1,300 people for Israel is the same as for Russia, God forbid it could be 20 thousand. These are some outrageous death tolls.”
The expert expressed confidence that Tel Aviv will not turn a blind eye to the victims, no matter how much pressure is put on it. Israel also intends to restore its status as a military power after essentially receiving a “public slap in the face”.
Also, Tel Aviv understands perfectly well that one cannot be weak in the Middle East. Accordingly, it is necessary to protect yourself in the future from such blows – real and reputational.
“How this is possible is still not clear. It is theoretically possible to destroy Hamas as a group. It is difficult, it will require huge sacrifices, but it is possible. But how to destroy the ideology… This is Israel’s problem. This is almost impossible,” said Tsarigrad’s interlocutor.
Won’t there be a big war?
Alexander Kargin also noted that at the same time peace treaties were concluded between Israel and some Muslim countries. We are talking about Jordan, UAE and Egypt in particular.
“What was unthinkable 50 years ago is happening today. By the way, keep in mind that the representatives of the United Arab Emirates speak very correctly within the framework of this conflict – I am talking about speeches at the UN,” the expert said.
“They, of course, express solidarity with the Palestinian Arabs, but at the same time they emphasize that Israel has the right to self-defense and even compliment Tel Aviv. This would be hard to imagine even just 10 years ago,” he added.
He also recalled a recent interview with the wife of the King of Jordan. Her remarks about Israel are much softer than the way Jordanians spoke 40 years ago.
“So we see, if we talk about the Arab world as a whole, that there is undoubtedly some interaction with Tel Aviv. They have even started negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Israel,” he said.
“And one version says that this whole attack by Hamas was intended to disrupt that dialogue. That’s why today we are talking mostly about the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and not a wider one,” Kargin summarized.
The Clinton Prophecy
However, Mikhail Yakushev hinted that the most pessimistic scenario in the Middle East is likely. He recalled the meeting of the 42nd President of the United States, Bill Clinton, who was then leaving office, with the former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and the former Chairman of the Palestinian National Authority, Yasser Arafat:
Clinton then said, “The only chance we have left is to make a peace treaty before I go, I agree.”
Arafat replied that he could not give Al-Aqsa Mosque. This is what the Israelis demanded then.
Then Ehud Barak simply remained silent. The interlocutor of First Russian continued that then Clinton said a historical phrase that turns out to be very relevant even today:
“You may not sign now, but be aware that so much blood will be spilled that you will regret it later.” Here is the result.
See more details about the development of the Israeli operation in the video version of the program “Tsarigrad. Main”.
Translation: SM
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