The Open Causes of Former President Trump: A Potential Turning Point in the 2024 Presidential Election

In 2024, the United States will elect its next president. The Democratic Party has embraced the nomination of the president, Joe Bidenexcept surprise, He has a clear path to the presidential elections. Faced with Biden’s, today, there are only two alternative Democratic candidacies. On the Republican side, on the other hand, the list only grows. The five already confirmed candidates could be joined in the coming days by former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Vice President Mike Pence. And the roster of Republicans could continue to grow; six more conservatives could end up running in the primaries. In 2008, eight candidates competed for the Republican nomination. In 2016 there were 12, and, If all the forecasts come true, in 2024, there will be 14.

This increase originates from a decision of the Supreme Court of the United States of the year 2010 in the framework of the lawsuit Citizens United v. United States. The Federal Election Commission. Then, a conservative organization —Citizens United—, denounced the regulation of campaign financing before the highest court in the United States. Its sentence, the result of a conservative majority of five votes to four, enabled unlimited spending by organizations and interest groups on electoral campaigns. The court understood that spending on electoral campaigns was a manifestation of freedom of expression, constitutionally protected.

The decision of the Supreme Court, supposed the change of a century-old legislation and propitiated the creation of the Super PACs, independent organizations of support to the candidates, that can spend without limit during the campaigns. The appearance of these organizations, he supposed, in fact, an extension of the electoral field. Before the change, a candidate’s chances depended on the support of the party leadership. Then, unlimited private funding could carry the campaign of a candidate with little acceptance among the elites (such as Donald Trump in 2016) until the end of the primary calendar.

Looking ahead to 2024, the large number of candidacies cannot be understood without analyzing the situation of the main candidate, Donald Trump. Previously, it was rare for parties to promote candidacies that threatened the campaign of an outgoing president. The chances of success of a candidate for re-election are much greater than those of a first-time candidate, and this tipped the competition in favor of the former.

Electoral landscape change

The candidacy of Trump, halfway between that of a candidate who does not hold any office and that of a president who is running for re-election, is weaker than that of a candidate who has not yet lost. In addition, Trump’s open causes could radically change the electoral landscape. The cases he faces in Georgia (for election interference), and in Washington (for keeping classified documents on leaving the White House and for his role in the Capitol storming) could throw the millionaire out of the running. The trial of the assault on the Capitol, to settle with charges of insurrection, even could lead to the prohibition of holding elected office for the millionaire.

Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 was possible thanks to the combined effect of both factors. On the one hand, it allowed the millionaire to be competitive despite being an underdog, and on the other, it saved him from having to fight for the nomination against an outgoing president. Today, the same factors that helped him in 2016 exert a knock-on effect on his rivals.