The emergency of the covid-19 pandemic is over, but the virus continues to circulate. And it won’t stop doing so in the near future. Therefore, increases in infections such as those seen in Spain and parts of the world in recent months were expected. The measurement is no longer as exhaustive as in the first two years and, since the summer of 2022, after the seventh wave, the up and down oscillations of the transmission were no longer enumerated. This new rise that began at the end of June has already exceeded the incidence of December, when there was another peak, but nothing indicates that it is more serious than the previous ones.
How do we know cases are increasing?
In March 2022, cases were no longer measured in the general population and follow-up was restricted to those over 60 years of age. And since July 2023, when the Government ended the health emergency (two months later than the WHO), it stopped publishing reports on all cases detected to focus on the same method that has been used for the flu for years. It is calculated with an estimate made with data reported by health centers and hospitals. Is he Acute Respiratory Infection Surveillance System (SiVIRA) published every week by the Carlos III Health Institute. The last one shows an incidence of 137.3 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, slightly above the peak of last December. The highest rates are observed in the groups of children under four years of age and adults over 64. Furthermore, the number of tests sold in pharmacies has been multiplying week after week during the summer, although their results are not officially recorded. nor are they made public.
What is known about the new variants?
The predominant variants in Spain continue to be those of the XBB family, which have been circulating in the country for almost a year. The mutations of the virus that thrive do so because they are more transmissible than their predecessors, but none of the new ones have been shown to be more severe than the previous ones. The mixture of natural immunity and that generated by vaccines that the vast majority of the population has means that it is normal to pass the infection with mild symptoms (little more than a fever) or even without them. In Spain, the EG.5, known as Eris (also from the Nor have these been shown to generate greater severity or more escape from vaccines.
How should you act and protect yourself in case of infection?
Since March 2022, it is no longer mandatory to isolate when someone becomes infected. The recommended action is the same as with another respiratory infection: go to the doctor if the symptoms worsen and, if necessary, sign a sick leave from work. Experts, however, recommend teleworking as much as possible if you test positive, as well as wearing a mask to reduce the risk to others. This is especially critical when dealing with vulnerable people: elderly (especially over 80) or with illnesses that make them more susceptible to becoming seriously ill. These population groups should also be more careful when interacting now that cases are increasing, because they are the ones who are at real risk of being admitted to a hospital due to Covid.
How are the hospitals?
Although the virus is not more aggressive, an increase in infections always translates into an increase in hospital admissions. They are no longer measured in detail, but SiVIRA shows that there are 3 per 100,000 inhabitants, compared to 0.5 in June, when they began to rise. However, they are very low levels, if compared to those of the first years of the pandemic. And, as Antoni Trilla, professor of epidemiology at the University of Barcelona, recalls, the criteria for entry are now much more lax than then, since the capacity to care for patients is greater. “An older person with certain symptoms may be told to stay in the hospital for observation just in case,” he says. Data from the ICUs are not published, but the doctors consulted explain that they have not noticed these increases in them. Alejandro Rodríguez, from the Spanish Society of Critical Intensive Medicine and Coronary Units (SEMICyUC), summarizes it: “We are not seeing patients with covid in the ICU. Some enter, but for another pathology. What we are seeing is that Covid now behaves like the flu, it sensitizes the lung to bacterial infections, which is why they are admitted.”
How and when will the new vaccination campaign be?
The new vaccination campaign is scheduled for October. Those over 60 years of age are called to it, with special emphasis on the relevance of those over 80, institutionalized people (in residences, disability centers, prisons…), health and socio-health workers, as well as health services. essential public (police, firefighters…) and those who have comorbidities (obesity, diabetes, coronary or kidney ailments, among others) or immunodeficiencies. For the rest of the population, the vaccine is not recommended. Regarding what the drug will be, the European Medicines Agency has already approved the one from Pfizer, adapted to the variants of the
How is it expected to perform this fall-winter?
Covid has not shown clear seasonal patterns since the pandemic began in 2020. Since 2021 there have been peaks in summer, but they have also been frequent in the autumn-winter season and spikes have also been recorded in spring. Being a relatively new virus that is fought with massively injected vaccines, it does not have cycles as clear as others, such as the flu, which is much more regular (almost always in the coldest of winter). No one has a clear answer to how the virus will behave in the coming months: neither its expansion nor its severity. It will depend on their mutations and what the response is to the vaccination campaign of the vulnerable population.
2023-09-12 03:30:00
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