/ world today news/ Russia declares readiness to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. After all, the US has already taken a similar step in Europe. However, our decision led to hysteria in Kiev, as well as to the preparation of a new wave of mobilization in Ukraine. Waiting for a counteroffensive?
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the approach of Russian missiles with nuclear warheads directly to the borders of the Eurozone.
In an interview with the author of the program “Moscow. Kremlin. Putin” Pavel Zarubin, he said that his colleague Alexander Lukashenko has long raised the issue of the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus.
“We have already helped our Belarusian colleagues to re-equip their aircraft, aircraft of the Air Force of Belarus. Ten aircraft are ready to use this type of weapon,” he stated.
“We have already handed over to Belarus our well-known and very effective Iskander complex. It can also be a carrier. On April 3, we start training crews. And on July 1, we finish the construction of a special storage for tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus.” , – said Vladimir Vladimirovich.
Alexander Lukashenko hinted that such a decision is being prepared after information from Great Britain about the supply of depleted uranium projectiles to Ukraine.
“Russia will supply us with real uranium ammunition,” he said.
Poland responded to Vladimir Putin’s interview. The press secretary of the Republic’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Lukasz Jasina, said the decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons further increased tensions.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry called for the immediate convening of an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. And their citizens – to be drafted into the ranks of the armed forces of Ukraine. The head of the Servant of the People faction, David Arahamiya, said in an interview with Sky News that the army will need new forces.
“If they are really serious about this decision, then we are facing the opening of a second front with a length of more than a thousand kilometers. We will need eight new brigades to control this line,” stressed Arahamia.
Apart from the Poles and Ukrainians, practically all the diplomatic offices of the European Union rose from the decision of Russia and Belarus.
The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons was condemned by France. Germany called it another attempt at nuclear intimidation. And the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, exploded with a post on Twitter that the EU would respond with sanctions.
The Kremlin’s position on all statements was expressed by the president’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov: “The reaction of the West cannot affect Russia’s plans.”
As noted by Yury Pronko, the host of “Russian First”, all this is happening against the background of an article about an alleged impending Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Wall Street Journal.
The authors of the material believe that it will begin in the coming weeks and will remain “an equation with a large number of unknowns.”
The publication reports that after several months of arms deliveries, Ukraine is preparing to launch a counterattack “in the coming weeks”, and this is “a very risky campaign that will determine the course of the next battles and possible peace talks”.
To succeed, Ukraine will need a combination of skill and luck to find and exploit Russia’s weaknesses, the authors of the publication believe.
The presenter discussed this topic with military experts Konstantin Sivkov and Stanislav Krapivnik on the air of the program “Tsarigrad. Main”.
The West is out of touch with political realities
Commenting on the statements, Konstantin Sivkov, vice president of the Russian Academy of Missile and Artillery Sciences, said the West’s reaction was quite predictable. But, according to him, this absolutely does not correspond to the state of affairs from the point of view of political realities.
“Germany, Italy, Denmark, the Netherlands have the ability to use American tactical nuclear weapons. Although these countries are not nuclear powers. The United States has nuclear weapons on the territory of other countries,” he said.
“There are about 90 warheads in Turkey. On the territory of European countries, in particular Germany, in the area of Ramstein, there is a whole storage of nuclear bombs B-61M of modification 12,” the expert said.
“Therefore, our response is a symmetrical response with the creation of weapons that are called hybrid. When the nuclear weapon carrier belongs to one country and the warhead belongs to another country. This is our normal reaction to these actions,” said Sivkov.
He added that it is now important to resolve the issue of locating the warehouse. The enemy will seek to destroy it “at all costs” and “this will be the loss of a large number of nuclear warheads” even before the start of the war.
“We can take measures of a diplomatic, legal nature and announce that an attack on this warehouse, the coordinates of which will, of course, be well known, will be considered an attack on the Russian nuclear forces, and in response – a full-fledged nuclear a blow to those countries who dare to strike this nuclear depot. This is a kind of deterrent,” said the Tsarigrad military expert.
Sivkov pointed out that the West does not have missiles like the Russian Iskanders. That is, those that are guaranteed to overcome anti-missile and anti-aircraft defense systems at a distance of up to 500 km and carry nuclear weapons.
“Their nuclear weapons aircraft carriers are the main means of delivery. This means that they become vulnerable elements and we can repel such a strike with air defense forces,” he said.
“But they will not be able to repel our strike with Iskanderi if we are talking about the nuclear option. Which is very painful for them,” Sivkov also said.
According to him, the statement of the head of the “Servant of the People” faction, David Arahamia, is only an occasion to announce a new mobilization in the country. The first one, as you know, was a complete failure. This is how they want to recruit people again and send them to slaughter, the expert said.
“But this has absolutely nothing to do with the creation and appearance of nuclear weapons in Belarus,” said the interlocutor of Constantinople.
The Poles are preparing to strike
Stanislav Krapyvnik, a former US Army officer and author of the Stas There and Back Telegram channel, also opined on the decision of Russia and Belarus to deploy nuclear weapons.
According to him, this does not play a special role for Americans. “Both powers have either deployed their weapons on foreign territory and continue to do so. But for the theater of war in Europe – yes, absolutely.”
“Poland is massing troops against Belarus. And it may try to advance or start a ‘color revolution’ to enter Belarus. And this [решение] creates a big brake. It is clear why President Lukashenko wanted this weapon,” said Krapyvnik.
Can the mobilization in Ukraine somehow affect this situation in the border area? Krapivnik thinks not. Because there are not enough qualified military personnel.
“The mobilization in Ukraine has been going on continuously for many years, wave after wave. And eight brigades on the front of a thousand kilometers is a joke. That’s 8-10 thousand soldiers, 10 soldiers per kilometer,” he says.
“Even if these combat groups are at different points. It doesn’t matter! If Belarus enters this war or our troops cross from the north, from the Belarusian border, then eight brigades and “teroboronists” will not stop them. It will be a lying policeman. But this slows down Polish ambitions,” noted the military expert.
What is Kyiv looking for?
“With its counteroffensive, the enemy wants to deal a moral blow to our society and people,” said Konstantin Sivkov.
And also to hit the authority and rating of President Vladimir Putin and the Russian Armed Forces.
“Even a small success of the armed forces of Ukraine in this counteroffensive, similar to the Kherson or Kharkiv retreat of our troops, even if they are withdrawn by decision of our military command to avoid losses, will be presented as a victory for the Ukrainian army Sivkov said.
“And in any case, this will be a very serious moral and psychological blow to our society, which will contribute to a serious destabilization of the socio-political situation in our country,” explained the expert.
According to Sivkov, in this case they receive additional armament. And the West is a pretext for claims of a “great victory”.
But the real state of affairs is such that in terms of the balance of forces, the amount of combat equipment, the training of personnel, the availability of aviation, the availability of artillery, Russia is superior to the enemy.
“We can prevent them from striking. Even if they decide and start advancing in those areas, where it is most likely, then we have a well-prepared defense… From a military strategic point of view, this offensive has no chance of success,” noted Sivkov.
“Kiev relies on Western Leopard tanks, hoping that they will help Ukraine’s armed forces defeat the Russians in battle. But what is the justification for them? Nothing. They will not be fought, they will simply be destroyed by aviation and anti-tank weapons,” the military expert said.
“We saw the results of using one of these anti-tank systems in Lebanon in 2006. The Russian Kornet helped our fighters destroy more protected tanks than the Leopards. So it’s not a problem,” added Sivkov.
“The only thing that confuses me is that, as in the case of Kharkiv and Kherson, here a political decision can be made to leave some territories,” the expert noted.
“From a tactical and operational point of view, this local retreat will allow the enemy to penetrate a certain area, in the form of a narrow “gut”. And then they will simply be physically destroyed in this “bag of fire”. As happened under Sukha Stavka, when the Ukrainians were advancing,” Sivkov recalls.
“Then they suffered huge losses. Three brigades were completely destroyed,” he recalled.
“And recently, the deputy head of the Zaporozhye region, Vladimir Rogov, said that the armed forces of Ukraine are preparing an attack on our positions. They were destroyed in these areas by air and artillery strikes. We can use the same to interrupt this offensive,” he said Sivkov.
He added that in the case of serious losses of Ukrainians in technology, their owners may wonder if the game is worth it? And Kyiv will most likely not have a second chance.
Stanislav Krapivnik agrees with his colleague’s opinion. In particular, with the fact that the situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is quite complicated. They are now armed with about 40 Leopard tanks out of the 200 promised. That’s enough to supply a battalion. But not enough for a serious counteroffensive.
“And if it was a division, on a front section 80 km wide, they would only pose a threat to one section, no more,” he says.
“You can, of course, divide the division into different brigades and threaten in three different places. But these will be very narrow sectors, they are easy enough to cut off,” explained the former American officer.
Among other things, there are also serious questions about the quality of the equipment with which the Ukrainians are fighting. According to Krapivnik, the US-made Bradley fighting vehicle is completely unsuitable for actual combat operations. Without tank support it is easy to destroy.
“The Stryker is an armored personnel carrier that was built for the Iraq war against insurgents. It’s a pretty light vehicle on wheels. You can’t really drive through the mud and it has little armor,” says Krapyvnik.
“And the rebels are one thing, and heavy artillery, tanks, ATGMs and aircraft are another. They are not adapted to this. And it is physically impossible to count on any major victory in this situation,” the expert said.
The VSU is in danger of serious damage as soon as it tries to break through the first line of defense. Not to mention reaching the third line. We know this from the experience of the Ardennes operation conducted in 1944-1945.
“Then Adolf Hitler’s troops tried to break through to Antwerp in order to split the Western Allies in two and somehow defeat them. All the actions in the direction of Mariupol are something like that. Even if they break through and have two flanks to take the attacks of our troops.”
“Anyway, the situation is very uncomfortable. As a political and as a tactical victory, yes, it will work. Because as soon as the offensive begins, the whole West will say that it is a ‘defeat for Russia’. It is so accepted. It doesn’t matter what we do, it doesn’t matter what kind of victory… Even if we enter Kiev, they will say it’s a defeat for Russia,” concluded Krapyvnik.
Translation: SM
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