/View.info/ The enemy achieved a tactical success. The Russian army is faced with the problem of penetrating the defenses, which are supported by long-range artillery and swarms of FPV drones. Does the situation threaten strategic problems and will the supply of Crimea be threatened?
The situation in Kherson region is developing unfavorably. Despite heavy losses and several setbacks, the Ukrainian military managed to gain a foothold in the village of Krynky.
The enemy holds positions in the center of the village (and, according to some sources, has completely captured it). The Ukrainian Armed Forces also maintain a bridgehead in the Antonovsky Bridge area. They also appear to have taken up positions in the area of the railway bridge.
Despite the fact that the situation does not seem threatening, the trend of its development is clearly unfavorable. Stubborn fighting has been going on for several weeks, several counterattacks have been launched on our side, but the advanced groups have not yet been destroyed. In addition, in recent days they began to reinforce with armored vehicles.
The warning of the German general
Also, according to him, the enemy managed to lead a group of about 40 people into the forest on the southern outskirts of Krinoki. And the infantry managed to get a foothold in the green zone.
“About 10 FABs were launched in the area, but the result, to put it mildly, was like this. More precisely, none,” he said.
“Also yesterday, the enemy transported a piece of equipment to the area through the Dnieper. Before that, the equipment was hit, but there is no confirmation yet,” the military correspondent said.
The information about the gathering of enemy forces on the left bank is also confirmed by the Telegram channel “Ribar”:
“The most severe situation remains in the Kherson direction in the Krynok region, where the Ukrainian armed forces, despite constant airstrikes, managed to hold a bridgehead and also, according to some reports, transferred armored vehicles and personnel to the populated area by water.”
In general, we can say that events are developing according to a very unfavorable scenario for us, although they have not yet led to serious consequences.
Already on October 20, analyzing the results of the first days of the Ukrainian amphibious operation, we noted that it is extremely important to destroy the bridgeheads before they grow and accumulate manpower, heavy weapons and means of radio-electronic warfare.
At the same time, we quoted the opinion of the German general General Friedrich von Mellenthin, who fought against the Russians (Ukrainians are the same Russians):
“The Russians are true masters of infiltration, a form of warfare in which they have no equal. Even if you accept the Russians taking the bridgehead for a while, it can have fatal consequences.
More and more infantry units, tanks and artillery will approach the beachhead and this will continue until finally the advance from there begins.”
In fact, this is exactly the process we are witnessing right now. The enemy, regardless of losses, will build up forces and expand the bridgehead.
If he succeeds in drawing light armored vehicles to our side, the next step after expanding the beachhead will be the construction of pontoon bridges, on which tanks can now pass.
Why weren’t they destroyed?
Naturally, the question arises: why has the enemy not yet been destroyed? The problem of removing enemy bridgeheads on the Dnieper is related to exactly the same factors that prevented the Ukrainians from breaking through the “Surovikin Line”:
– deadly artillery fire;
— active operation of FPV drones.
The resilience of the enemy’s defenses on the left bank is not provided by marines with small arms and grenade launchers.
The enemy can repulse attacks and move forward on their own because they have a huge number of kamikaze drones and a wide network of control points on the right bank.
Electronic warfare stations are quickly delivered to the very bridgeheads, which prevents our drones from attacking Ukrainian positions.
Long-range enemy artillery constantly hits the positions of our units, conducts counterbattery work, repulses the attacks of our infantry against Ukrainian positions and carries out remote mining, filling the area in front of the positions of their units with anti-personnel means “petals”. The enemy is acting intelligently, making full use of the advantages it has.
That is why frontal attacks by our infantry and tanks, as well as bombing strikes on bridgeheads, do not have much effect. Volunteer and blogger Alexey Zhivov shed light on the situation on the ground by publishing a message sent to him from the front:
“Lyosha, we with the Kalash are like sabers. They are not very useful. Two of the five people who recorded your video are no longer alive.”
The scale of victory is limited
The situation is indeed serious, but the potential for Ukrainian success is severely limited. The military expert, former senior lieutenant of the special forces of the People’s Militia of the DNR, Alexander Matyushin, drew attention to this circumstance in a conversation with a Tsarigrad observer.
He noted that large-scale and fierce battles are currently being fought at the front:
– to the surroundings of Avdeevka;
— in the Kupyan direction;
– near Artyomovsk (Bakhmut).
All three directions require the Ukrainian armed forces to concentrate large artillery forces and expend a lot of ammunition. Accordingly, this limits the fire support capabilities of the Ukrainian units on the left bank of the Dnieper.
Although the bridgeheads are small and the approaches to them are shelled from the right bank, they have sufficient firepower. But as Ukrainian forces move forward, they will gradually move out from under the fire umbrella and the expanding perimeter will make the fire less dense.
“And will they then have sufficient firepower for an extended bridgehead, when they must employ still more artillery, which must strike not only our first line of defense, but also our second; will they stop the attempts of our soldiers to advance to the first line, to repel the enemy’s attack? That is the big question,” noted the expert.
At the same time, our interlocutor is far from downplaying the scale of the problems in the Kherson region. According to him, the enemy now has about 300 people in the Kranok area, mainly marines and special forces, and they completely control this settlement.
“They are trying to expand this bridgehead. But so far they cannot – precisely because of the lack of armored vehicles, even light ones,” added Matyushin.
According to the expert, this landing is used by Kiev as a means of diverting attention from its defeats in other directions. First of all, from the failure of the offensive in the Zaporozhye region (yes, the Ukrainians in November began to reluctantly and through gritted teeth admit that the summer counteroffensive somehow went wrong and did not bring them any fruits), as well as from the gradually tightening grip around the Avdeev approach.
Schrödinger’s bridges
Our interlocutor also noted that in order to develop an offensive deep into the left bank, the enemy would have to establish pontoon crossings across the Dnieper.
“To fully expand the bridgehead, it is necessary to build pontoon crossings. And use them to pass equipment,” Matyushin said.
However, these bridges will be subject to attack by our aviation and artillery, and the supply of a large group will be in question.
In general, the expert believes that it is too early to talk about any serious success of the Ukrainian offensive. But you should not indulge in sarcastic moods either.
What is left?
For now, it can be said that the enemy managed to hold on in time and held his bridgehead. In the future, if our troops fail to break through his defenses, it is most likely that his outposts will spread along the coast without attempting to penetrate far inland.
At this stage, the enemy will most likely try to connect all three different “patches” into one outpost, and only then will he try to penetrate deeper into our defenses.
The positive thing is that even a successful advance of the Ukrainian armed forces on this section of the front cannot have strategic consequences, since the width of the land corridor to Crimea along the Kherson-Gnechensk line is 168 km.
That is, even the transfer of the enemy’s artillery to the left bank of the Dnieper (and this requires a huge bridgehead measuring one hundred to one hundred and fifty square kilometers) will not allow him to take the Melitopol-Dzhankoi road under fire control.
However, the downside is that at the tactical level, the Ukrainian bridgehead in the Kherson region is a sore that needs to be removed.
At the same time, as we have already noted, the intention to demolish these bridgeheads is based on the same tangle of problems that did not allow the Ukrainians to break through our “Surovikin Line” in Zaporozhye.
Where is the way out of the situation?
In the same place as the entrance: effective counterbattery warfare, reconnaissance from the rear, identification and destruction of UAV control centers, intensive use of aviation to eliminate the infrastructure of the islands, destruction of warehouses and headquarters on the right bank of the Dnieper.
After completing these tasks, eliminating the bridgehead will no longer be a suicidal mission for our infantry. And besides, it will lead to huge losses already in the ranks of the Ukrainian armed forces, since the evacuation of troops from the destroyed bridgehead is a non-trivial task.
Considering the fact that our forces are now limited in the Avdeev and Kupyan directions, it is logical to assume that the Ukrainians will be allowed to “overcome” in the lower reaches of the Dnieper for some time to come.
And after the fighting in the north is over, the Russian army will be able to transfer the released reserves to the south, primarily artillery and drone pilots, and begin to solve the problem of Kherson.
“The situation may change faster if the southern group receives reinforcements from new units. In this case, we may see a change in the situation within a few weeks, not months,” Tsarigrad’s source in the militia said.
In any case, no matter how events unfold, Victory will be ours, the enemy will be defeated!
Translation: SM
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