Again according to the interim estimates of the international body, Germany will score -5.4% in 2020 and + 4.6% in 2021; as for France, a -9.5% is expected in 2020 and + 5.8% in 2021.
On a global level, however, the expected drop in GDP caused by the coronavirus pandemic eases to -4.5% compared to the previous forecast of -6%. On 2021, however, the OECD expects a rebound of 5%, which compared to June has been revised downwards by 0.2 points. The Parisian body, according to which in the absence of the massive stimulus measures e
support for the economy, the collapse would have been even more dramatic, but warns that “considerable uncertainty” persists on the prospects for recovery and that they will also depend on the evolution of the pandemic (so much so that the projections are made by estimating the launch of the mass vaccine only at the end of 2021). And he points out that the rebound observed following the easing of lockdown measures and the restart of business activities “lost momentum in the summer months”.
However, the body notes that “if the coronavirus threat vanishes faster than expected, greater confidence could significantly increase global activity in 2021”. However, a “stronger resurgence of the virus or tougher containment measures could cut global growth by 2-3 percentage points in 2021, with rising unemployment and a prolonged period of weak investment.”
For this reason, the OECD continues, “support for fiscal, monetary and structural policy must be maintained to preserve confidence and limit uncertainty”. In this context, “enhanced global cooperation to keep borders open” and “free movement of trade, investment and medical equipment are needed to mitigate and suppress the virus in all parts of the world and accelerate economic recovery”.
Visco: “Heavy crisis, uncertain consequences” The governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco, also spoke of the economic situation, according to whom “the consequences of this global crisis are very serious and difficult to assess”. The prospects for recovery are therefore “uncertain, and this negatively affects household and business spending”. For this reason, the Recovery fund represents “an important opportunity, not to be missed. The benefits that Italy can derive from it will depend on the ability to propose targeted interventions consistent with the objectives and requirements of the program and to implement them quickly and without waste. In this way it will also be possible to set the conditions for achieving a progressive and continuous rebalancing of the public accounts, avoiding that the increased indebtedness ends up aggravating the country’s problems “.
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