The Obstructive Dilemma: Political Impasse in the Lebanese Presidential Elections

Researcher and political analyst Bishara Khairallah believes that “the Shiite duo’s team will not be able to deliver the head of the Marada Movement, Suleiman Franjieh, to Baabda Palace, and it will not allow the former minister, Jihad Azour, to be brought to the presidential chair,” considering that “the obstructive team in Lebanon is Hezbollah’s team, and it is not There is any confrontation between Franjieh and Azour, but rather there is the dual ability to disrupt.

In an interview with the “Lebanon Debate”, Khairallah expects that the president of the republic will not come out in the near future, because “the scenario of the upcoming obstruction is a black scenario, and in practice today the team that is able to call for a session holds the council’s key in its hand and can also stop the session at any time it wants by flying The quorum and precedents are witnesses.”

He believes that “today, if Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri calls for a session to elect a president, the deputies must not leave the session except with a president of the republic. Unfortunately, despite the invitation to a session, this “maestro” can obstruct from the first time because the balances will not allow neither Azour nor Franjieh. That they get more than 50 or 55 votes from the first round, and then in the second round in which Azour’s chances are higher, the quorum of the session will be blown, so I say we are in a dilemma that disrupts the constitution by an active act and extends the term of the presidential vacancy.

He regrets the reflection of this obstruction, which he describes as “the most dangerous”, especially since “there is a complete Christian alignment to reject the president imposed by the Shiite duo, and this is what puts us before a dangerous stage through which unrest infiltrates.”

And about the chances of the army commander, General Joseph Aoun, Khairallah says: “The chances of the army commander from the first day are the highest despite the fact that General Joseph Aoun did not act as a potential candidate, but there is a team so far that is hiding behind the issue of constitutional amendment, and if there is a possibility to elect the army commander.” The council that can elect it by consensus is able at the same time to carry out this constitutional amendment if there is a need for amendment, because in practice when the entire council is present and the army commander is elected, the need for amendment is removed when the overwhelming majority of more than two-thirds agrees. The constitution can also be amended in the same session if there is An intention to elect the army commander, and if the intention is available to elect the army commander by the two parties, then it is illogical and acceptable to obstruct it further.

And he adds: “Every day there is more obstruction, and remaining on the presidential vacancy is costly economically and may be costly in terms of security, and at that time we will be facing a great danger and there is great fear of street chaos, especially since we are in a presidential vacuum, an ineffective government, and dysfunctional institutions, which means that we are going to more disintegration, and he regrets that There is no glimmer of hope that the obstructing party will go to peaceful solutions, because it is looking for solutions after wars, and this is a great danger that Lebanon is experiencing.

And about the presidential candidate closest to Baabda Palace? He says, “Frankly and through an objective reading of reality, the closest to assuming the first presidency is the candidate who did not announce himself as a candidate, and he is the army commander, General Joseph Aoun.”

According to political analyst Bishara Khairallah, “The Shiite duo team Mazum and Speaker Berri called for a session to elect a president for the republic next Wednesday because he found himself sandwiched between two strong candidates and could only call for a session, but at the same time he could invite and disrupt the quorum from within.” Because the first round will not produce a president for the republic, but the second round will enable Azour to obtain a higher percentage that will make him president.