Until a few days ago, the United Kingdom had a different strategy to fight the new coronavirus. At a time when several countries were beginning to close schools and public places, from museums and other enclosed spaces to public parks, the UK government made a decision to delay these measures.

However, Boris Johnson’s statements on Monday indicate a clear change of course. “The time has come for all of us to stop reducing social contacts and stop making unnecessary trips,” warned the British Prime Minister on Wednesday. “From now on, we have to go deeper”, told the country, which has registered for now 1,543 cases, of which 55 died.

But, after all, what has changed for the UK government to change its mind?

The short answer is this: the numbers startled.

According to the BBC, the change of course of the British government came after a group of scientists from Imperial College London published a study this Monday where three strategies were evaluated to deal with the new coronavirus:

• Suppression, in which it seeks to break the chains of transmission, promoting policies of isolation and disruption of ordinary life even for those without symptoms, as China did;
• Mitigation, a phase that consists of trying to contain the outbreak through the care provided to those infected with more severe symptoms, accepting that there will be people infected with mild symptoms, leading to a desired post-infectious immunity. This had been the UK’s strategy now;
• Do nothing, allowing the virus to install itself in the population.

What the scientists at Imperial College London was that, if nothing was done, 81% of the population would be infected and 510,000 people would die by August – an option that was not considered by the British government. However, the option of mitigation, which has been practiced until now, presented worrying numbers: about 250 thousand deaths, both by the new coronavirus and by other diseases that would not be met in the face of overwhelming pressure from the public health system.

That is why, Imperial College London scientists defended the suppression model – recommending it both to the United Kingdom and “to countries that manage to maintain it”. And according to the BBC and The Guardian, it was the fact that the findings of this study reached the British government that prompted Boris Johnson and his ministers to take more restrictive measures to combat the new coronavirus.

The path of suppression, however, can have negative consequences, underlines the study by Imperial College London.

“Suppression, while successful in China and South Korea to date, carries with it enormous social and economic costs that can in turn have a significant impact on health and well-being [da população] in the short and long term ”, warn the study authors. At this point, however, with the prospect of 250,000 people dying as a result of this crisis, this it is a risk that Boris Johnson prefers to take.