On Sunday, after the day of the armies, the night of the partisans will come, and if everything is fair one of the candidates should win with a 4% difference, the mathematician is firm
Sofia, Bulgaria03 Nov. 2023, 20:00 10303 read 6 comments
“Friday has always been an interesting day. Especially after 5:00 p.m. What fun will happen will happen today after lunch and tomorrow. But let’s drive in order” – with these words the mathematician Prof. Nikolay Vitanov began his daily analysis, in which he what is happening in Bulgarian political life and on the fronts in Ukraine and Israel.
“We start with Grandpa Henry
Henry Kissinger (day number 14)
……..The conventional army loses if it does not win. The partisan wins if he doesn’t lose…………
Grandpa Henry explains to you in one sentence the goals of both sides in the Gaza war.
As well as what is happening on the battlefields around Ukraine. Conventional armies. Few partisans. But that’s why, below.
Let’s first apply Grandpa Henry to the current Bulgarian situation. So we have elections, especially a runoff in Sofia, and conventional armies and partisans are fighting in them. Politics is a continuation of war by other means.
A There are as many as two wars here. Between the armies of the candidates for the run-off and their partisans and between the armies of the parties in the assembly and their partisans. We turn off feelings, look at interests and think.
As I wrote to you yesterday, the two candidates in the runoff in Sofia have a different coefficient of increase in the number of votes. There are still two days until Sunday – today and tomorrow, as it is important what the armies and guerrillas will do on Sunday. I will not write to you on Saturday and Sunday, so today – a little more detailed what is expected in the next 3 days.
Today. Vanya Grigorova’s advance is expected to continue and for most of the day her army is expected to maintain the 15 percent increase in the number of votes needed for victory. Vasil Terziev’s army did the right thing by escaping the debate and saved himself from a defeat that could have decided the outcome of the war.
This with the armies. Guerrillas on both sides will become very active today after noon. Let’s see what kind of propaganda bombs the two sides have put out.
Tomorrow is a day of reflection, however, is a very important day for the armies and for the partisans. Armies must mobilize voters for Sunday. Because officially he can’t, it goes with shushu-mushu.
It is important for Vanya Grigorova’s army to maintain the 15 percent increase in votes here as well. It is important for Vsil Terziev’s army to mobilize the core of voters. The partisans will have to prepare the election commissions.
Sunday is coming. Armies of voters are thrown into battle. The partisans are waiting for the elections to be over and the counting to begin. Why so. What does the Great Specialist say?
…Voters don’t decide anything. Those who count the votes decide…..
Who is the Great Specialist? Not to be confused with
…It doesn’t matter who votes how. It matters who counts the votes…
As you can see, various specialists tell you the same thing.
And so, on Sunday, after the day of the armies, the night of the partisans will come. Let’s not forget – paper ballot guerilla, machine guerilla, and, yes, bending vectors. If they weren’t there wouldn’t be these three effects, one of the candidates should win by a 4% margin. So you can judge the effect of guerillas and hillbillies by how different from 4% the difference will be.
You’re probably wondering who is expected to get the most votes? Ask Boyko Borisov – he is what the Germans call a Koenigsmacher. But enough about that.
We’re going for a standard version, in the next 72 hours you’ll find out where the political scientist and sociologist are, and I’ll meekly drink my beer and be dumbfounded. You know – if everything is fair – 4% difference. A difference of 4% – there were many partisan actions.
Long live Grandpa Henry. The beer will not be Duff, although such can be found in our parts now.
Onward to the wars.
The war in Israel and Palestine. Everything is going according to the forecast.
1. Israel launched the invasion of Gaza. You know that the battalion tactical groups of the Israeli army have sufficient combat readiness to conduct limited operations in Gaza. At the brigade level, combat readiness will appear on and around November 15, and then more massive ground operations towards Gaza City itself are expected.
Let’s not forget, however, that the Israeli army has quite a few non-reserve brigades. They may be dropped on Gaza before November 15.
2. Hamas puts up stubborn resistance and Israeli casualties mount. That was expected. None of the three buttons to shut down parts of the Hamas network appear to have been pressed. Therefore, stubborn resistance will continue. You know Grandpa Henry. No loss is a victory for the partisan.
3. The Israeli military will stop at no sacrifices to try to eliminate Hamas for a long time. They may give 20,000 bits, but they will not stop. Gaza will be totally destroyed, there will be a sea of blood and tens of thousands killed.
4. You wonder how it will all end. I won’t lie to you it won’t end well. The idea of a forced exodus of Palestinians from Gaza is being floated. Let’s discuss it while it spins around various heads. Where to relocate the Palestinian population? In the Sinai Peninsula. At first in tent camps that grew into more permanent cities.
Something in that direction is going on – an evacuation is going on to the southern part of Gaza. However, the Egyptians are not simple, they have closed the border. Not a state. To forgive, the Israeli army will storm Gaza from north to south to push the Palestinians out with no hope of return. I wrote to you, tens of thousands killed, everything razed to the ground. Even then, Egypt is not expected to accept millions of Palestinians any easier, so they will push it – politics is a continuation of the war by other means.
Bayat Palestinians will try to be resettled in Cyprus, Greece, Spain and …., alou-woo-woo, the Bulgarian state institutions and services, do you feel where I am going. Take it and feel it, after all, the mathematical theory of migration channels was made by Vitanov.
Now General de Gaulle and Marshal Jurdek von Schadravan spread their mighty wings and take out publications to crush the unfortunate Vitanov on the question of migration? Wh-oh-oh? Didn’t they have anything? Well, listen then Vitanov. Will they come? Sha dOdat, sha dOdat, do the math if you can, de.
The complete ethnic cleansing of Gaza is unlikely to happen. Hamas is a tough organization, but let’s assume Israel manages to shut it out. However, Israel is unlikely to be able to effectively occupy Gaza for long without ethnic cleansing.
And in the place of Hamas, the relatively unpopular Fatah may not appear, but an even more radical Islamic group may emerge. A Palestinian state in Gaza? This is what Israel least wants. Because the next step is a demand for a corridor connecting Gaza to the West Bank.
So blood, destruction and migration await us.
The war in Ukraine.
Let’s not comment on it today. More about her on Monday.
Let’s see in the end what’s up with the corona virus predictions.
Forecast – there will be no overcrowding of hospitals. Validity – already 465 days.
15 months is 457 days. More than 15 months validity here means. Not bad. It’s not bad at all.
Prediction – there will be no diffuse spread of the virus. Validity – already 567 days. 19 months is 578 days. The counters are spinning.
When the next epidemics come, then you will pull the numbers from these records and compare. And so you will know who is worth how much.
Over 565 days of valid forecast. 18 months, going on month number 19. Damn prediction – still valid.
Well, whoever can, can. Those who can’t – put their beak in the mud and begin to bubble it amateurishly.
The current wave is developing as expected. As you can see, there are still no 5 consecutive days with over 500 registered cases. And it’s already November 3rd. What are the expectations?
1. The wool should continue to lie. Who else predicted this to you?
2. You continue to perform well by following basic self-defense measures and this allows the health system to resist and hold back the surge. You see – the cases cannot rise steadily above 500. And time is running out.
3. You know what needs to be done – keep it up until the middle of November, then the wave will not be able to rise until the end of the year and we will have a good Christmas holiday. It’s up to you – you determine the spread rate of the virus. So far you are doing great and the result is there – we have the low tide
4. It is elementary – do not rush where there are many people, away from coughing people if possible. This is if you want the wave to go away and no problems on the New Year holidays. Does basic caution bother you? No. And you go about your business calmly.
5. It is important that by the middle of November the wave has gone steadily down, so that a secondary peak cannot form until the end of the year and you can spend the Christmas and New Year holidays without worries. You are doing great so far. The primary peak has passed, a decline begins. Just be more careful like before. Your attention keeps the propagation factor low and the wave cannot rise.
Yes, it is.
I wish you health and success and may viruses and war stay away from you,” Prof. Vitanov wrote on his personal Facebook profile.
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2023-11-03 17:59:39
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