I have heard a word frequently in recent times – general environment. The general context is that the current environment is not very good.
In the latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for global economic growth.The global economic growth rate in 2023 is expected to be3.0%，2024 is 2.9%are much lower than3.8%historical average.
Some foreign media are speculating that the global economic environment is not good, and the Chinese economy, which is deeply integrated with the world economy, will naturally collapse. If the Chinese economy is not good, it will continue to worsen the global economy.
What is the real situation? China has used actions to answer the question of how we should view the general environment.
When talking about the economy, we must first judge and grasp the situation:
Economic recovery is a process of wave-like development and twists and turns. Our country’s economy has huge development resilience and potential, and its long-term positive fundamentals have not changed.
The waves and twists and turns correspond to the internal and external environments we face – sluggish world economic recovery, weakening external demand, constant geopolitical conflicts, increasing adverse effects from changes in the international environment, and hidden risks in some areas are gradually emerging.
Against this background, China has maintained security and achieved development beyond security. Stabilizing the economy in this year’s complex environment will not be easy.
Master Tan learned that 80% of China’s more than 100 major economic indicators have rebounded to three years ago, or even greatly exceeded previous levels.
In the first three quarters of this year, China’s GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year. In the third quarter, China’s GDP grew by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, surpassing many other major economies in the world – in the third quarter, Germany’s GDP fell by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, and France grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter.
In the face of the rare opportunity for China’s economic recovery to improve and its contribution to about one-third of global economic growth, some foreign media have portrayed China as a “destructive factor” in the world economy.
Since the beginning of this year, when foreign media have paid attention to the Chinese economy, a typical feature has been the connection between the Chinese economy and the general environment.Zhu Tan used big data tools to conduct statistics and found that from January to September, foreign media used the words “world”, “global” and “international”. frequencyis gradually increasing.
Of course we are interacting with the international environment, but the interaction constructed by foreign media is a vicious cycle of logic:Global demand weakenswhich will “drag” China’s exports; as the engine of the world economy, China’s economic growth will slow down, which in turn will “Drag” the general environment“drag” other countries.
But in fact, we are using our actions to block this vicious cycle and turn it into benign interaction and feedback.
｜｜In 2022, the container throughput of Shanghai Port will exceed 47.3 million TEUs, ranking first in the world for 13 consecutive years
Looking further ahead, from January to October this year, China’s export dataSame period in 2019compared to:
｜｜For the EU, year-on-year growth39.3%
｜｜For ASEAN, year-on-year growth49.7%
｜｜For the U.S., year-over-year growth19.1%
｜｜For India, year-on-year growth57.1%
｜｜For South Korea, year-on-year growth35.6%
｜｜For Japan, year-on-year growth11.3%
Different from the pessimism of foreign media, almost all of China’s connections with major economies in the world areencryption。
A set of data that can really correspond to the “drag” environment is:
American research instituteproposed a“Global Trade Barriers Index”.In 2023, non-tariff barriers, namely VariousImport and export control measures、discriminatory government policiesplanCountries with higher levels are developed countries such as the United States, and this level is rising compared to 2019.
｜｜Huawei 5G Innovation Experience Center in London, UK
In fact, the worse the general environment is, the more we must pay attention to our core competitiveness. How China develops in such an environment can start with India, a country with significant year-on-year export growth.
The main products exported from China to India arefirstIt is an electromechanical product.Among them, the products with the highest growth rates, such as liquid crystal display modules, microprocessors, and integrated circuits, have one thing in common: they are all located in the industrial chain. midstream。
This characteristic corresponds to a phenomenon discovered by the China-India-Vietnam Electronics Association during its inspection in Southeast Asia this year:
Although some low-end manufacturing in China hasspilloverbut most of them are mainly assembled, which is in line with the situation of Southeast Asian countries.development stage needs. The mechanical and electrical products that China mainly exports have certain technological content, and the high-tech companies or unicorns that produce these products basically stay in the country.
｜｜Chinese company’s largest power generation project in Cambodia with total installed capacity completed and put into operation
Taking the industrial chain as a central perspective, looking back at China’s domestic industrial construction in recent years, we will find that as early as 2020, we have begun to systematically pay attention to the future long-term changes in the global industrial chain and supply chain, and continue to emphasize “Replenish the chain, strengthen the chain, extend the chain”concept.
｜｜A high-tech enterprise in Shanghai
China’s market competitiveness is becoming more and more certain, which can also be confirmed from a detail.
From 2019 to now, a large part of China’s export growth comes from China’sPrivate Enterprise.Compared with 2019, the proportion of private enterprises in total export value has increased from 51.3%promoted to62.9%。
It is against the backdrop of significant enhancement of its own endogenous power and reliability that China has encryptedaccess to the outside,The level of international circulation continues to improve.
｜｜An electronic components factory in Sihong Economic Development Zone, Jiangsu Province According to the “Talent, Innovation and Industrial Chain Resilience Report (2023)”, China’sRanked second among the world’s major countries in terms of industrial chain resilience。
The ranking represents China’s core position in the global industrial chain. This position also echoes China’s global contribution: China isThe world’s largest goods trading country,yes Major trading partners in more than 140 countries and regions。
Even though there were stormy waves, we still withstood the wind and waves and remained stable.
We cannot avoid the influence of the objective environment, and it is not easy to be changed. Against this background, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its growth forecast for China’s economy this month. It is expected that China’s economy will grow by 5.4% in 2023, which is 5.4% higher than this year’s. The forecast for October was revised upward by 0.4 percentage points.
Since the general environment is not good, what has China done?
In the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, when talking about promoting high-quality development, a word was mentioned:“TFP”and the prefix changed from “improve” in the report of the 19th National Congress to “improve” in the report of the 20th National Congress “Strive to improve”. Its importance is evident.
Total factor productivity refers to the ability of all input factors to contribute to output growth.
Generally speaking, there are two major ways to improve total factor productivity. One isskill improved,two isImproved resource allocation efficiency. Among them, technological progress has made a relatively large improvement.
｜｜China Import and Export Fair, regarded as the vane of China’s foreign trade
However, one problem is that after completing industrialization, Western countries have led a new round of technological innovation with information technology as the core, but why have the technological innovations in the United States and the West not translated into improvements in total factor productivity, thereby driving Western countries to A new round of growth?
Robert Gordon, a well-known macroeconomist at Northwestern University, gave an explanation:
Existing scientific and technological innovation in the United Stateshard to accomplishMechanization and economies of scale, that is, they did not help the United States “re-industrialize” – which is what we now widely observe as the crux of the American economy. consistentof.
World Bank data shows that in 2021, the added value of manufacturing in high-income countries will account for an average of 13% of GDP, with the United States accounting for 11%, Germany 19%, and Japan 20%.
The proportion of China’s manufacturing added value in GDP is27.4%. Many of these come from the growth of traditional industries:
Chemical products, non-metallic mineral products, metal products, etc.traditional industriesThe proportion of added value in the total manufacturing industry increased from 23.5% in 2010 to 28.8% in 2020.
In the understanding of many people, traditional industries basically have little room for growth, and some even equate them with “backward industries.” How is this kind of growth different from the past?
Jinjiang, Fujian, is an observation sample.
In the past few days, the China Listed Company Development Forum was held in Jinjiang. As a county-level city, Jinjiang has more than 90,000 private enterprises and 51 listed companies.
A large part of Jinjiang’s success relies on “stupid methods” – facing the temptation to “make quick money” by turning from reality to fiction, Jinjiang’s companies persevere in the traditional manufacturing field, which is the most competitive market.
In fact, it is not that traditional industries cannot grow, but they must have enough time, sufficient technology accumulation, and achieve the ultimate in many subdivisions before they can produce “qualitative” changes and leaps. Jinjiang’s persistence has completed such a transformation – many companies have achieved “black light factories” and “fully intelligent operations” through digital transformation.
｜｜In April this year, Jinjiang City established an industrial digital service collaboration alliance.
Such persistence has also created Jinjiang’s core competitiveness. Behind this lies the potential for China’s economic development:
The core of so-called traditional industries has changed. And when traditional industries are no longer traditional, they will burst out with a steady stream of momentum.
Just in the past few days, some foreign media have conducted in-depth investigations into the Chinese market and found thatDevelopment of green and high-tech industriesis creating new demand for commodities such as non-ferrous metals, which in the past was mainly concentrated in traditional industries such as real estate.
｜｜Transport vehicle for transporting power battery system The continuous development of the manufacturing industry will create room for the growth of total factor productivity. It happens that these development spaces in China are discovered in the process of technological progress.
In the past year, no matter what difficulties we encountered, one characteristic of China’s economic data is that it hasInvestment in high-tech industriesIt always maintains growth and is always significantly higher than the growth rate of all fixed asset investment.
｜｜Comer, the world’s largest supplier of agricultural machinery transmission systems
Generally speaking, in manufacturing-related fields, energy, communications and travel areDecisive factors that define stages of development and shape of civilizationjust like the use of fossil energy, wireless communications and modern transportation distinguishes agricultural civilization from industrial civilization.
Manufacturing, energy, communications and travel, when these words are put together, the first thing that comes to mind isnew energy vehicles。
｜｜New energy smart vehicle industry chain exhibition area
You know, new energy vehicles have gone from being an unpopular industry toChina’s most competitive emerging industriesThe transformation has only happened in the past few years.
｜｜BMW Brilliance Shenyang Tiexi Plant
What many people know is that China’s new energy vehicle production and sales have becomeWorld number onebut some people may not know that global investment in key technologies for new energy vehicles in 2022 Over $100 billionChina accounts for 10% ofone thirdabout.
The general environment is not good, and we have experiencedTransformation、Industrial upgradingThe pain of suffering from the use of the United States and Western countries Suppression of unfair trade practicesbut China just came over.
｜｜Tesla booth at the Chain Expo
In this process, there is a special “construction team” worth noting. This year, macro policies have continued to exert their efforts:
｜｜At the beginning of this year, government departments continued to optimize a number of phased macro policies, including tax concessions for small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, and an increase in the super deduction ratio for R&D expenses of some enterprises. ｜｜In the first half of the year, a number of new targeted measures were launched, focusing on the development of advanced manufacturing clusters, new energy vehicles and other fields.
｜｜In the third quarter, we planned to implement a number of reserve policies to serve the real economy.
Under the guidance of a series of “combination punches”, the real economy has increasingly become the capital of my country’s development. Green, intelligent, and digital development are making our “capital” heavier.
No economy can escape the general environment, but what we can do is change ourselves and find endogenous motivation through higher-quality development.
In the process of positive changes in China’s economy, some subtle changes are taking place. China’s positive changes are also gradually changing the overall environment of international development.
The reality we see is that although there are various problems in the general environment, China has not been changed by the general environment, but firstMastered the situation.
Facing the future, look at demand in the short term and supply in the long term.
How can China continue to provide the world with high-quality and stable Chinese supplies?The first chain expoA detail above provides us with a window to observe this problem:
At the welcome dinner of the Chain Expo, Mr. Tan met business representatives or government representatives from 55 countries and regions including the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany. Among them, American and European companies accounted for 10% of the international exhibitors. 36%，U.S. companies have the largest number of exhibitors。
｜｜The first China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo
Why didn’t they listen to the so-called “decoupling and disconnection”, didn’t choose “reshoring”, and didn’t implement the so-called “near-shoring”?
Master Tan talked about this topic with the American companies that came to China to participate in the exhibition. Their answer was that they have not tried it in the past few years.Supply chain localizationbut the cost of localization makes them still Back to China。
｜｜The President of the American Chamber of Commerce in China talked with representatives of Cargill in the United States at the dinner of the Chain Expo
On the surface, what foreign-funded enterprises care about is cost. Ultimately, it is the technological and talent advantages behind China’s supply capacity.
More foreign companies, chooseInvest in the future in China。
｜｜first sessionThe theme of the Expo – “Link the world, create the future together”
From January to September this year, foreign investors invested in and established new foreign-funded enterprises in China.37814home, year-on-year growth32.4%among which high-tech manufacturing grew 12.8%medical equipment and instrumentation manufacturing, electronics and communication equipment manufacturing, investment increased by as much as37.1%and 21.5%。
Among them, manyDeveloped economies’ investment in ChinaEspecially in enlargement.
From January to September, investment in China from France, the United Kingdom, Canada, Switzerland, and the Netherlands grew rapidly, with growth rates of121.7%、 116.9%、109.2%、76.9%、 32.6%。
｜｜Airbus Tianjin final assembly line
China, precisely inThe most cutting-edge technology fieldscreating a common increment for the world and providing the possibility to jointly control the general trend of the world.
China’s strong supply and insistence on opening up complement each other and answer some questions about development and security in the era of economic globalization——interdependencenot a risk, but an opportunity.
Among the foreign capital flowing into China, one region’s investment in China is particularly eye-catching.
Data shows that Middle East sovereign wealth funds are alreadyMore than 40 companiesTop ten shareholders of tradable shares of China’s A-share listed companies. The funds from these Middle Eastern countries are concentrated in China’s smart electric vehicles, new energy technology, Internet, energy, high-end equipment manufacturing and other fields.
｜｜A groundbreaking ceremony was held for a large-scale chemical project jointly invested by China and Saudi Arabia
This reflects another aspect of the problem. China is creating more opportunities for developing countries.Potential scenarios that leverage your own endowments。
In this sense, in the process of controlling its own situation, China is also working hard to improve the world’s general environment.
China has created, participated in, and promoted a series of mechanisms and platforms for economic globalization, which have also become global public goods that maintain the development security of most countries and promote the development of more developing countries. Fully participate in global value chains and unleash your potential。
｜｜Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway in Indonesia
If Globalization 1.0 is the colonial era and Globalization 2.0 is the era driven by capital, then Global 3.0 promoted by China isAn era of common development。
In this era, no country should become a vassal of the development of other countries. What China has done is precisely to makeevery placeAll have the basis and possibility for development, giving every areaCultivate the foundation of the market.
The “big environment” is objective reality, but reality itself is not without the possibility of being shaped.
The environment is never static.But inDynamic changesIn order to control the “big environment”, we need to go beyond the perspective of one moment and one thing and see the real general trend.
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责编：丁玉冰 ]
2023-11-30 03:11:00
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