The News! IHSG fell 3% in Session II

The trading value of index in session II today has reached about IDR 7.7 trillion with a trading volume of 15 billion shares and it was done 774,539 times..

The JCI is getting worse even though the Indonesian economy in the second quarter of 2024 is still growing above 5%. The Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) reported today that Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2024 grew by 5.05% annually.year after year/ yoy), lower than the first quarter of 2024 which reached 5.11%.

At the same time, each season (quarter to quarter/ qtq), the country’s GDP in the second quarter of 2024 grew 3.79%, better than the first quarter of 2024 which grew negative 0.83%.

Economic growth this quarter was driven by public spending and investment.

“The component that achieved positive growth was the contribution of household consumption to GDP with a contribution of 54.53%,” said Moh. Edy Mahmud, Deputy Head of Balance Sheets and Statistical Analysis, in a BPS announcement, Monday (28/8/2024).

In the second quarter of 2024, consumption grew by 4.93%. This is still a strong demand and purchasing power of people. At the same time, the expenditure component that grew the most was government agency spending (LNPRT) which grew by 9.98%.

In addition, spending is also driven by the holidays, Eid and Eid al-Adha.

Even though it is the largest source of the economy, housing consumption has been below 5% for the last three quarters.

High household consumption in April-June 2024 was supported by long weekend in May and June. BPS saw an increase in community movement during the holiday period.

“This can be seen from improvements in transport and communication as well as restaurants and hotels,” explained Edy.

The JCI continues to suffer as the market worries about the possibility of a recession in the United States (US) and the impact of an increase in the benchmark interest rate by the Japanese central bank (Bank of Japan/BoJ).

The potential for a US recession emerged after the release of labor market data in Uncle Sam’s country that went very slowly and several US economic data that tended to disappoint.

Last week, Uncle Sam’s country released a lot of important data such as interest rate announcements, the labor market which includes unemployment claims, Non-Farm Payments (NFP) or registered employment data outside agriculture, and the unemployment rate.

Labor market data slowed sharply. Starts from unemployment claims rose sharply to 249,000, beating expectations that they would only increase by 1,000 to 236,000 claims.

A day later, sluggish labor market conditions were further confirmed by non-agricultural employment data recorded (non-farm payments/NFP) which only increased by 114,000, far from market estimates which predicted a labor increase of 179,000 to 175,000 jobs. The US unemployment rate in July 2024 also jumped to 4.3% from 4.1% in June 2024.

This has led market players to conclude that the risk of a recession is increasing in the US, which then raises concerns that it will happen. hard landing because the US central bank (Federal Reserve / The Fed) is considered slow to do so quantitative easing as happened during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Meanwhile from Japan, the impact of the BoJ’s hike in interest rates caused Japan’s Nikkei 225 index to fall sharply today. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was seen to have fallen badly, that is up to 12.4%.

Stock markets in Japan suffered their worst one-day fall since 2016, amid concerns about the impact of the yen’s rise on Japanese companies after the BoJ’s surprise interest rate hike early last week.

CNBC INDONESIA RESEARCH

(chd/chd)