The New York Times reports: This is the time left for Iran to build a nuclear bomb

The first question in the US vice presidential debate last Tuesday was whether the candidates would support or oppose a pre-emptive strike on Iran by Israel.

The issue was presented to Governor Tim Walz and Senator JD Vance as an urgent matter for consideration because, according to what was discussed in the debate, Tehran had “severely underestimated the time it would take to arm to develop nuclear power”; Which reduced the time to get it to “a couple of weeks.”

But nuclear experts told The New York Times on Wednesday that it would not take Iran weeks to build a nuclear weapon, but months and possibly up to a year.

Centrifuges at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran – New York Times

Nuclear fuel

Houston Gee said. “I don’t think there is any danger that Iran will start detonating a nuclear weapon this year,” said Wood, professor emeritus of mechanical and aeronautical engineering at the University of Virginia.

Dr. Wood, an expert on nuclear centrifuges, estimated that it would take a full year to develop a weapon if Iran had enough nuclear fuel.

“It will probably take several months, not weeks,” said Siegfried Hecker, former director of the Los Alamos Weapons Laboratory in New Mexico.

Enriched Uranium

Experts pointed out that Tehran still needs more time to produce a sufficient level of highly purified uranium, and then turn it into a weapon.

After enough uranium metal has been extracted, it must be carefully shaped into the core of an atomic bomb, and then assembled with other parts, including the nuclear warhead. mounted in front of the missile.

“This requires advanced metallurgy and engineering,” said Dr. Hecker. He said this process is more difficult than some might expect. For example, nuclear workers face health risks because small radioactive particles created during nuclear fission can collect in their lungs; Which could lead to the growth of cancer if they are not careful.

An Iranian technician operates machines in the Natanz nuclear reactor during the inauguration of nuclear projects by Iran’s President (Anatolia Group)

What are the steps required for Iran to make a nuclear bomb?

According to the New York Times, the widespread misunderstanding about the state of Iran’s nuclear capabilities is the result of several recent public reports that provided detailed timelines for Iran’s production of fuel for a nuclear bomb. But these reports do not provide enough details about the other steps that Iran must complete in order to build a nuclear weapon, including nuclear purification, engineering, manufacturing and test execution.

Public reports focus on what military experts call “nuclear breakout,” which is the time it takes for a country seeking nuclear capability to obtain enough fuel to make a bomb.

According to the newspaper, Tehran must face a series of other critical steps before creating a deliverable nuclear warhead. Among these measures is the development of an electronic ignition system to detonate a group of conventional explosives that stress a nuclear core. Which starts a chain reaction that releases explosions of atomic energy.

In addition, the warhead must be rigorously tested to ensure that it can withstand the extreme heat and vibrations of re-entry.

This lengthy process also usually ends with an underground bomb test, to ensure that the warhead explodes as expected in war, nuclear energy experts say.

A sign marking the Natanz nuclear reactor in Iran (Getty)

How many nuclear bombs does Iran need to make?

On the other hand, an investigation indicated, according to the newspaper, that reports sent by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations agency that monitors Iran’s nuclear progress, suggest that there is no Tehran still has a nuclear design or suitable explosives. system.”

Dr. Wood, a professor at the University of Virginia, said that there are many additional factors that affect the assessment of the real threat that Iran’s nuclear program could pose to Israel.

He said, “You don’t want to launch one weapon and then run out of weapons. Iran may want to have an arsenal of 6 or more nuclear bombs before it tests one underground or that he might burst another in war.”