In this way, the exit rate of the brand-new bonds was slightly above the projection of 10% made a couple of weeks ago at the time of closing the agreement with the creditors.
The analysts consulted by Télam estimated that the rates will gradually adjust towards this theoretical value of return in the short term, within a range of between 9% and 10%.
After yesterday’s holiday in the United States, today was the first trading day of the new Argentine securities under foreign law.
In the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, the securities operated with little liquidity and with transactions carried out in pesos.
The volume traded in bonds in the local market was less than a figure equivalent to 2,000 million dollars, in a context in which three-quarters of the operations were concentrated in the brand-new 2030 Bond, in a context of great caution, to waiting for greater economic definitions.
This last title traded at 6,320 pesos, with a rise of 0.8% in the local market compared to the day before.
In New York, meanwhile, the global 2030 had a yield of 11.5%, while the 2038 was 12%, and the 2046 title, 12.5%.
For its part, the 2035 bond had a yield of 11.6%.
Thus, the yield curves look quite normalized or are “quasi normal”, as they say in financial jargon when the drawing marks a positive line with a bow in the middle and long section of it.
The shape of these curves indicates what the market estimates for the country: that Argnetina will not have problems for 5 years with regard to its commitments and that the doubt is long-term, the specialists said.
Not least data is that the positive position of the country’s yield curve had not occurred since mid-2018, when the market turned around and the risk of default began to become more and more real.
The curious thing about the day was that the bonds in dollars under local law operated with lower yields than those issued under foreign law, since they moved with rates between 10.5% and 11.5%, showing a lower risk than the international bonds.
“Until the bonds in dollars under local law do not operate against dollars, we will not know exactly how much they yield due to the distortions that exist with the exchange rate calculation, due to the 5-day parking imposed by the CNV,” they said from Delphos Investment.
Although with little impact, Argentine bonds opened the day with the new rating from Standard & Poors, which yesterday raised the country’s rating one notch to “CCC +” from “selective default”, while Moodýs takes time to modify its rating “Caa-“, although he announced that he will do so in the coming weeks.
Likewise, the JP Morgan bank notified that it will modify this week the composition of the Embi plus index through which it measures Argentine country risk, after the debt swap.
The financial entity will retouch the indicator with the incorporation of the new bonds, in which the Global 2035 would be the one with the greatest weight, judging by the liquidity it will have.
Indeed, the 2035 bond turned out to be the largest issue, for $ 20,501 million; followed by the 2030 bond, with 16.09 billion dollars.
Meanwhile, in the 2038 bond, the issuance was for 11,405 million dollars: in 2041, for 10,482 million dollars, and the 2029 bond, for 2,662 million dollars.
Last on the list is the 2046 bond, with the smallest issue, for $ 2,091 million.
The JP Morgan modification will cause a drop in the country risk that analysts estimate will be around 1050 points, which in turn would cause a rebalancing in the fund’s securities portfolio, which could eventually take on more Argentine debt.
Thus, the country risk will fall practically by half, from the 2,150 basis points where it was located today.
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