The new parliament: GERB – 66 seats, PP – 44, BSP – 42, ITN – 32, MRF – 29, DB – 27

According to the average data of 5 sociological agencies GERB – 22.9-24.1%, PP – 14.8-16.5%, BSP – 12.1-16.7%

6 parties in the 47th National Assembly, need a quadruple coalition, if it is without GERB

The most probable run-off Radev – Gerdjikov

The 47th Bulgarian Parliament will be a six-party system, with just over a quarter of GERB deputies in it.

The presidential elections will end with a runoff between Rumen Radev and Prof. Anastas Gerdjikov. This is shown by the data from the latest surveys of 5 sociological agencies – Trend, Gallup, Alpha Research, Market Links and Sova Harris.

GERB is first in results with support between 22.9 and 24.1%, and at a distance of 7-8 points from the BSP and “We continue the change” arguing for the second place. The former ruling party has managed to recover from the summer’s electoral losses, sociologists say.

According to the average data from the latest surveys of the 5 agencies, GERB leads with 23.5% and is very likely to take 66 seats in the 47th parliament, calculated the mathematician Prof. Mikhail Konstantinov.

Tenths of a percent to 1 point divide the contenders for silver. BSP collects between 12.1 and 16.7% of the vote, a “We continue the change” between 14.8 and 16.5%. Only according to “Market Links” PP outstrips the centenarian by as much as 3.8%.

Sociologists are adamant that there can be no government without “Continuing Change.” Trend comments that it is fatally important who will win the second place – BSP or the party of Petkov and Vassilev.

According to calculations, the PP can take 44 seats and is in second place in the average forecast of the 5 polls, and the BSP is third with 42 seats. However, this predominance is quite light. It can be changed by situational factors, according to sociologists from Alpha Research. For example, complicating the situation with the coronavirus could turn away the vote of the older BSP voters, while in front of “We continue the change” this problem is not so strong.

They get similar results “There is such a people” – between 9.7 and 13.4%, and MRF – between 9.7% and 11.3%, show more data.

The forecasts are that Slavi’s party will rank fourth, followed by a 1% distance from the MRF, according to the summarized data. “There are such people” will probably have 32 deputies, and the MRF – with 29. Sociologists comment that ITN has suffered the greatest losses and erosion.

Support for “Democratic Bulgaria” is in the range of 9.1-10.5%. This party is fourth in the Alpha Research survey, fifth in the Market Links survey and sixth in the Trend and Gallup polls. The forecast is for 27 seats.

Chance for “Stand up BG! We are coming!” only the sociologists from Sova-Harris and Market Links can see to jump the barrier. Otherwise, support for the protest formation varies between 3.3 and 4.1%.

The summarized data confirm it with 3.7%.

Vazrazhdane also remains below the barrier. Peak result for this party – 3.8%, registered “Alpha Research”. In general, however, Vazrazhdane remains with 3.3% in the summarized data from all surveys.

According to sociologists, there is little hope for the IMRO, whose voters vary between 1.1 and 2.2%.

Trend researchers claim that turnout in the parliamentary elections will be about 55% and about 2% higher than in the presidential elections.

However, Alpha Research predicts that about 47-48% of Bulgarians will stand in front of the ballot boxes on Sunday. Sociologists registered increased mobilization a few days before the vote and also greater interest in the parliamentary vote. According to them, although the current president Rumen Radev undoubtedly has a big advantage – almost 2: 1 over his rival Prof. Anastas Gerdjikov, there is a crack in the periphery, which is important for the runoff between the two.

The result of Rumen Radev ranges between 46.4 and 56.2%, and support for Prof. Anastas Gerdjikov varies between 23.5% and 28.3%.

According to average data, Rumen Radev won 48.8%, and Prof. Gerdjikov – 24.9%.

Support for the MRF candidate Mustafa Karadayi ranges between 7.1 and 10.3% and is very close to his party’s electoral result.

The fourth position is for the candidate of “Democratic Bulgaria”Lozan Panov, for whom the ballot would be between 5.2 and 6.9%.

Kostadin Kostadinov from “Vazrazhdane” is last in the top five with support within 2-3.2%.

About a percent show the data of sociologists for the folk singer Luna and Milen Mihov.

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