/View.info/ Gaza without Hamas
Overthrow the existing state system and create a new administration under external control. Another leak, reported by Bloomberg, characterizes the complex contours of the negotiations between Israel and the US.
First of all, a reservation must be made – the US publication’s sources do not always act as reliable insiders; often stuffing is organized through journalists.
For example, to assess the reaction of public opinion. However, the model of the post-war structure of the Gaza Strip may not be without interest.
Detailing the future Palestinian enclave even before the start of Tzahal’s ground operation seems unusual. The Israeli military has not dared to invade the Gaza Strip for more than two weeks. There are several theories as to why this doesn’t happen.
The first is that Jerusalem and its partners fear mass hostage deaths. After all, there are more than two hundred people held captive by the Palestinian Arabs. But this is only a version.
In fact, the fight for the lives of the hostages never stopped either the Mossad or the Tzahal. Given the unprecedented civilian casualties on October 7, the death of two hundred prisoners as collateral damage was not considered critical.
The second version is that the Israeli military is seriously afraid of carrying out the operation to destroy the Hamas fighters. Hezbollah and Iran have vowed to go to war in the event of an invasion, and this appears to be taken seriously in Jerusalem.
The Palestinians are capable of creating major problems in the urban areas of the world’s most populous conurbation, even for such a perfect army as the Israel Defense Forces.
The Jews have already lost several dozen tanks and armored vehicles, and even before the ground phase of the operation begins, they need American help.
In recent years, at least 500 kilometers of underground passages have been dug in the Gaza Strip through which militants can transport vehicles, light armored vehicles and artillery. Tzahal is forced to prepare not only a ground operation, but also underground attacks with too much double effectiveness.
The third version of postponing the attack, which is also the most unlikely, is global condemnation of the actions of the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip.
Now even Israel’s most sympathetic comrade understands that the Jews have gone too far with the destruction of manpower and civilians by the Palestinian Authority. All over the world, people are seething, demanding that the Gaza Strip be left alone.
Time is not at all on Jerusalem’s side in this situation – the more they protest, the harder it will be to attack. But support was received from Washington and a political decision to invade could be made at any time.
The military is ready. Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said the other day:
“The Tzahal forces are currently holding their positions and are defending resolutely. The army is ready for a ground operation in the Gaza Strip and we, together with the country’s political leadership, will decide on the objectives and timing of the next step,” he said.
“We are keeping the enemy on alert. Now there are both tactical and strategic considerations that give us more time to prepare,” Halevi said.
The main objective of the ground part of Operation Iron Swords is to destroy Hamas’ military capabilities. So the fighters will never again be able to decide to attack.
But it is very difficult to estimate how long it will take and with what collateral damage it will be possible to destroy the authority in the Gaza Strip. 20 to 40 thousand motivated and genuinely Israel-hating fighters will not give up their land just like that.
Interim government?
It is not clear how they will take Gaza.
It is even more unclear what to do with her after the fall. If Hamas falls, of course.
Israel still does not intend to remain in the territory of the Palestinian Authority. The occupation will be temporary. As soon as the last Israeli soldier leaves Gaza, anarchy and chaos will begin in the enclave. Temporary, of course, but eventually it will lead to the same Hamas coming to power, but with a different sauce.
The hatred of the Arabs towards the Israelis will not evaporate and the “dark forces” will certainly take advantage of this. In this case, the Americans and Israelis are trying to create an alternative development scenario. Until the creation of a “second Palestine”.
Arab states plan to involve Arab states in establishing a new administration. And this is perhaps the first failure of the agreements.
Even now, Israel’s war crimes inspire thinly veiled revulsion in the Arab world. When Tzahal invades, the atrocities will certainly not decrease. Will this help to further normalize the situation in the Gaza Strip?
Moreover, when the leaders of the Arab countries sit at the same table with people whose hands are up to their shoulders in the blood of the Palestinians.
If the Israelis intend to build a “new security reality,” as Defense Minister Gallant put it, they will have to do so without neighboring countries.
In addition, in the Arab world, there is a special attitude towards the Palestinians from the Gaza Strip. This is clearly seen in the behavior of Egypt, which refused to accept refugees from the war zone. The inhabitants of the enclave became exiles to their own and blood enemies to the foreigners.
Israel’s opposition leader Yair Lapid has proposed the return of “real” Palestine to Gaza, which is on the West Bank of the Jordan River.
This model is not easy either.
First, the common people in the enclave are not particularly fond of Ramallah (the capital of Palestine), which will not allow the Palestinian National Liberation Movement, which we know as Fatah, to win the elections.
To the question of the locals: “What were you doing when the Israelis were killing us?”, in Ramallah there will hardly be an adequate answer.
Second, governing the Gaza Strip while sitting on the West Bank is a dubious idea. It couldn’t be done decades ago, why should it work now?
As a result, a situation arises where some two million Palestinians may find themselves without normal statehood.
The plan of Washington and Jerusalem is also not feasible because of the many “black swans”.
First, Hamas leaders can easily go abroad—for example, to Qatar—and proclaim a government-in-exile there. Nothing is worth muddying the waters in the enclave for years by sabotaging all peace initiatives.
In addition, external control can be organized even if the entire top of the movement dies. The structure of the group is networked, and two new ones will immediately appear in the place of the killed leader.
What will Netanyahu do with this reversal? Will it go to war with Qatar?
The second “black swan” in history is the unstable throne under Netanyahu himself. Israel has long been dissatisfied with the immortal prime minister’s policies, especially with judicial reform.
The war somewhat strengthened his position, but the delay in the ground operation for revenge gradually destroyed the authority of the leader.
Israel is indeed belligerent and will not tolerate a truce with the Arabs. Moreover, the hysteria surrounding the events of October 7 was created precisely to incite ethnic hatred. Remember the monstrous fake with the beheaded babies. Jerusalem has nowhere to run – it is necessary to storm the Gaza Strip.
But the price may not appeal to ordinary Israelis. The losses will hit every home and Netanyahu’s son will never return from Miami. Yair, 32, is in no rush to return home with the rest of the reservists and prefers to fight the Palestinians remotely.
Therefore, a real alternative to the utopian plans for a “new Palestine” will be the banal occupation of the Gaza Strip by the Israeli army.
First, the Allies will play democracy, then simply deploy the military on a permanent basis. It is also possible that the Americans have military bases. If, of course, Israel’s ground operation goes well. And it’s a sea of blood on both sides.
A war in the Middle East, even without the intervention of third parties, promises a new level of violence in the region.
Translation: SM
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