/View.info/ The Institute for Market Economy publishes information1 on the latest version of the National Plan for Recovery and Sustainability. From the shared information and the draft plan (version 1.4) on the MF2 page, the following questions arise and the following conclusions can be drawn:
It is not clear how this plan will solve the goals set in the title – resilience and recovery, namely:
domestic product (GDP) by 21.7% and GDP per capita to reach 62% of the EU average, after:
only 4.2%, about 2 times lower than the EU countries;
-2021 has increased by 66.19% and for the period 2018-2020 the increase is from 51% to 55%. Its real expression is more important, because for the population what is left in the individual’s pocket after paying taxes, lighting, heating, medicine, etc. is important. Will he be able to buy at least one per book and attend at least one cultural event per month;
the difference between rich and poor. By this indicator, we are once again in first place in Europe. In Europe it is 5.5 times, and in Bulgaria over 8 times. The population in Bulgaria at risk of poverty is 33.6% compared to 21.9% for the European Union. 3 Without an answer to this question, Europe is unlikely to approve the plan, because a shrinking middle class increases the danger of worsening social peace, growing dissatisfaction with governance and creating additional problems for the state of the entire European Union;
-
In the period 2017-2021, unemployment is relatively low, 5.1-5.3%,
which means that almost the entire work potential of Bulgaria was included and it is inexplicable how with a reduction of unemployment by 0.7% (to 3.5%) a growth of 21.7% of GDP will be achieved?;
within the framework of about 6 billion euros, Bulgaria’s exports rose by only 0.9%, and GDP by 9.6%. 4 2022 will clearly be a “zero” year in terms of the plan and in terms of operational programs, and until 2025, when this plan must be implemented, only 3 years remain;
access to raw materials (metals, chemical products, basic technological equipment, specific technologies for food, healthcare, etc.) and their replacement with Bulgarian ones based on new technologies and maximum use of national resources;
foreign trade balance (– 4 billion BGN for 2016 to – 8.5 billion BGN for 2021),
which is the main source for paying off the ever-increasing national debt. And it is growing steadily from 7.13 billion euros in 2009 to 41.4 billion euros in 2021.
activities and development of a pilot project for the combined production of heat and electricity from geothermal sources (H3)”5 raises a reasonable suspicion of hidden interests in terms of wording and content because:
-
The amount was increased 3.5 times, without arguments;
-
In 2001, the BAS (in the person of the Geological and Geophysical Institute) was
issued a geothermal catalog of Bulgaria (based on studies in the period 1967-1980), from which it can be seen in general for Bulgaria that:
boreholes at a depth of 4,500 m reach up to 1,400C. Above 1000 m, extracting water is problematic in terms of technology and cost. The economic effect of this project is doubtful and unproven, and 350 million BGN to be spent on a pilot project for 4 sites (understand experiment) is a rather expensive pleasure.
Geothermal water sources are located in different geostructural zones from 1 to 7 (such as morphology, material composition, flow rate), which gives rise to requirements and additional investments for purification, treatment of extracted water, etc.
of use and how their pumping will affect the geological structure in the borehole area.
Map of geothermal fields and sources/6
(H2)7, worth 1,026 billion euros, of which from Europe – 342 million euros (33%) and private financing (67%);
agreeing the conditions – profit, return on investment period, etc. There is a doubt that this private investor has already been selected or the conditions have already been agreed with him;
which is also suspicious of being speculated upon;
their use, life (7-15 years) and at whose expense it will be, etc. etc.
Extracts:
-
The plan has been improved only with respect to the two projects (H2 and H3). Strongly suspicion of consideration of private interests.
-
Nothing has changed in terms of creating a sustainable national (notdependent on foreign capital and interests) production base of Bulgaria (industrial profile of the country by sectors and regions), towards which education, science and innovation should be oriented. There is apparently a reliance on order in chaos, which very rarely leads to the right decision;
-
There is no vision of the energy balance regarding the business participation of speciesenergy – nuclear, renewable energy sources, hydroelectric power plants, thermal power plants. It is betting on the H3 project for the production of electricity and heat from geothermal waters, which is very controversial in terms of efficiency from the information available so far.
Energy can also be obtained from reducing the pressure of natural gas supplied to consumers, in which more than 300 MW of electricity can be produced – 100% ecological. Roughly from 30,000 m3/hour of transported natural gas and reduction from 45 to 10-15 bar can produce 1 MW/hour, and the investment costs for 1 MW are around 500 euros/kW;
4. GDP growth, GDP per head of
population and unemployment which give no idea how much welfare/standard of living will increase. This casts great doubt on the effect of the implementation of this plan. Digitization and digitization of the various sectors in the economy and the priority of transport do not have a direct impact on achieving the set goals.
Conclusion: The plan looks more like a spell, few arguments, more promises, no performance criteria, changes in the international situation are not taken into account, which creates the danger of not achieving the set goals and of abusing European and national financial resources. In this plan, there is a “fair”, “green”, “digital”, but not a “rich” and “prosperous” Bulgaria.
The administration of the state should not be used for the realization of ambitions and enslavement to complexes, but to listen and respond to the suffering of the people and show constant concern for their well-being.
Sources of information:
1. The recovery plan – another postponement and new changes,
2. The National Recovery and Resilience Plan,
B0%20%D1%83%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%B9%D1%87%D0%B8%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82-15102021%20(1).pdf (1).pdf)
3. Together with Romania, we remain the poorest in the EU, 34% of Bulgarians live in poverty,
4. Assessment of the macroeconomic effects of the implementation of the programs,
co-financed with EU funds, file:///D:/Ikonomika%2022/Fondove_EC_sept2021.pdf
5. The updated projects in the National Plan for Recovery and Sustainability, of Geothermal Energy Utilization in Bulgaria for electricity and head generation (Н3), have been published.
6. Hristov V, Stoyanov N, Valtchev S, Kole S, Benderev A, Utilization of low enthalpy
geothermal energy in Bulgaria,
7. Supporting scheme for the deployment of a minimum of 1.4GW RES with storage in
Bulgaria (Н2),
URGENT AND IMPORTANT FOR THE READERS OF Glance.INFO!!!!!
JOIN OUR TELEGRAM AND YOUTUBE CHANNELS BECAUSE THERE IS A DANGER OF BLOCKING OUR FACEBOOK PAGE FOR PUBLISHING INCONVENIENT BUT OBJECTIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EVENTS!
Subscribe to Pogled Info:
YouTube channel:
Invite your friends to join them by copying and distributing this text!?
#National #Recovery #Resilience #Plan #trap #gullible
