The Nation: Ukraine could collapse ᐉ News from Fakti.bg – World

Whoever wins the US elections, the beginning of the new administration should be an opportunity for a major reassessment of US policy towards the war in Ukraine, writes the American magazine The Nation.

Because it is very clear that the current course is not sustainable and, if continued in this way, may sooner or later lead to the breakup of Ukraine or to an all-out war between NATO and the Russia.

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The news from the Ukrainian front line is grim. It is much higher than the Ukrainian forces, as well as in artillery and ammunition. There are growing signs of agitation, discouragement, abandonment and evasion of service by both elite and common people. Russia’s success is based on the fact that Russia has far greater resources than Ukraine in terms of industry and manpower.

Ukrainians and Western hawks argue that more Western weapons will make a big difference. And indeed, if some of them had been given in 2022, when the Russian armed forces were in serious disarray, they could have led to much greater success in Ukraine. Now, however, Russia’s advantage is so great that Western supplies cannot do much.

Western industry cannot produce anything like the number of artillery shells needed in Ukraine. The US cannot provide enough air defense systems to Israel and Ukraine and keep enough for a possible war with China. And above all, NATO cannot make troops for Ukraine.

Unfortunately, Ukraine and the West often criticize the possibility of negotiated peace and insist that Ukraine will have complete victory. They continue to argue that if Putin is allowed to hold southeast Ukraine, he will then attack NATO. This is nonsense.

A more persuasive argument, for example by Ivan Krastev in the Financial Times, is that Putin has no incentive to seek peace with the Russian military on board.

We cannot know which Russian terms are absolute and negotiable until we enter into negotiations with Russia. And starting negotiations does not mean accepting the original Russian conditions.

Members of the Russian establishment have suggested that Russia give up more territorial ambitions in exchange for a neutrality treaty without NATO membership (Ukraine).

Empower neutral powers like India and Brazil to make similar peace offers to the Russians. Given the efforts made by the Russian government to court these countries and the “global majority”, it will be very difficult for Putin to reject a peace initiative from them.

Western aid to Ukraine must continue throughout the negotiations until the Ukrainian forces inflict heavy casualties on the enemy, thus encouraging the Russians to accept a compromise. However, we must not be under the illusion that either our support will last indefinitely, or that it will help Ukraine regain the territory it lost.

If the next US administration does not adopt this course, there is a great danger that, like the armies of World War II after years of trench warfare, the Ukrainian military will eventually disintegrate.

Washington will have a choice between accepting heavy losses in Ukraine or engaging directly and risking nuclear war with Russia.