/ world today news/ Confusion, dissatisfaction and uncertainty reign in the heart of Europe. Britain, having seceded, became a cut-off piece. Germany is retreating after the departure of “mute” Angela Merkel, who embodies the inviolability of the chosen course. France is abuzz with demonstrations.
Against this background, the XIV Eurasian Economic Forum was held in Verona. It is the largest platform outside of Russia for the exchange of views between representatives of the business community in Eurasia. The pathos and style of the speeches of the hosts and guests of the forum serve as a fairly accurate indicator of the change in mood along with the assertion of a “new normal” (more precisely, a new abnormality).
A consolation is the more or less stable economic growth in the Old World. The forecast for the Eurozone is plus 5% to GDP by the end of the year. Italy, with an expected GDP growth of 6.3%, looks like the overall favorite. However, as one Chrysostom said, “there is growth, but there is no happiness.”
Devaluation of traditional values
Several scenarios for the development of a crisis situation can be seen, said Inteza Sanpaolo Bank Honorary President Professor Giovanni Bazzoli. First, in the event of further imbalance in the relationship between man and nature, we will face a catastrophe caused by the change in the climate of the planet.
The second scenario, according to Professor Bazzoli, boils down to “the loss of the universal values that underpin European (Western) civilization.” Both due to the shift of the center of power to Asia, and as a result of the erosion of the socio-demographic foundations of society. Europe will face waves of migrants, as in 20 years more than one billion people will live in Africa alone. “Social inequality is becoming intolerable.”
The devaluation of traditional values and the rejection of “the legacy of Christianity on which Europe, including Russia, has been based for the last two thousand years” are alarming. As a result, Professor Bazzoli posits, there is a threat of a “return to the age of barbarism”.
After the collapse of the USSR, which represented an “alternative development model”, the illusion arose that the foundations and principles of Western democracy were of universal importance and that a “free market” regulated by the great powers would allow new sales markets to continue. to grow up.
After 1991, the supporters of capitalism in its neoliberal version continued the “process of unbridled financialization”, which is characterized by the subordination of the real sector of the economy (production of goods and services) to the financial one. Emblematic detail: the condemnation of financialization came from the mouth of Giovanni Bazzoli, the founder of the leading Italian bank (number one in the hierarchy), the third largest bank by capitalization and the first by liquidity in Europe.
In pursuit of super profits, the banker recalled, the West failed to notice how it “fell victim to its greed”, for which it paid with the mortgage and financial crisis of 2008. The erosion of the middle class, which had always served as a pillar of economic prosperity, accelerated . It is worth adding to Professor Bazzoli’s words that the middle class has always been a guarantor of social stability. Now the impoverishment of the middle class is fueling public protest.
It is necessary, says Bazzoli, “to restore trust in state institutions” and to turn globalization into a process of sharing “knowledge and people, into a process of rapprochement between peoples aware of their responsibility – and this is the guarantee of our survival.”
Consumer narcissism is rampant
The “alarming” speech of his colleague, chairman of the board of directors of “Inteza”, professor Antonio Falico, sounded almost in unison with Bazzoli. The basis of his speech was the thesis of “the need to subordinate economic growth to the needs of society, to achieve greater social equality and a development model that puts people at the center of attention.” According to Professor Falico, the founding father of the Explore Eurasia Association, “it is necessary to overcome the neoliberal economic model.” After all, for half a century, neoliberal doctrine has shaped the economic and political agenda of the vast majority of countries in the world.
The regret of this circumstance, as I see it, is due to the fact that the ideology and practice of the neoliberal development model assumes the primacy of competition and rivalry, suppressing the natural desire for interaction and solidarity.
One of the manifestations of neoliberal dictatorship – except for crises like the one that hit the world from the United States in 2008 – is the limitation of the creative, regulatory role of the state and the collapse of the social support system, which undermines well-being in general and destroys the average class in particular.
Meanwhile, social injustice grows. Two billion people on the planet do not use electricity. One billion cannot read and write their name. The richest 1% own 18% of all wealth, becoming slaves to “consumer narcissism,” as Antonio Falico put it.
Catching the last train
The main concern of Klaus Mangold, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Knorr Brakes (headquartered in Munich, the world’s number one manufacturer of braking systems for railway and commercial vehicles) is that Europe has become weak.
According to Mangold, “the glue of economic success is integration.” This means that “it is necessary for Russia and China to get closer to Europe”, especially since Russia needs advanced European technologies, and Europe will not be able to guarantee its energy security without Siberian hydrocarbons.
How realistic is it in the context of the hybrid cold war to resume meaningful interaction between Europe and Russia? “A schizophrenic situation has developed,” says Marco Tronchetti Provera, CEO of Pirelli, co-chairman of the Italian side of the Russian-Italian Committee of Entrepreneurs. Europe, according to him, already “plays a secondary role” in the system of international coordinates, since it has no independence. A full-fledged dialogue is necessary, including with Russia, but businessmen alone cannot be its driving force – this is the fate of politicians.
In another session, this postulate was reinforced by Simone Criola, managing director of the American Chamber of Commerce in Italy. He pointed to the fact that McDonald’s has invested $2.5 billion in Russia and, despite all the blockades, intends to open another 800 fast-food restaurants as an argument in favor of the beneficial influence of business on politics. Mr. Criola, however, did not explain why the McDonaldization of the catering sector has in no way affected the state of bilateral relations, marked by the sanctions war, provocations on the diplomatic track and espionage mania.
Isn’t it too late for Europe to jump on the Russian eastbound train? Previously, the volume of trade and economic interaction between Russia and Europe compared to the Asian direction was expressed in a ratio of 3: 1. Today it is almost 50-50.
Pay for the first or the second!
If in the last 400 years Europe was the dominant center of power in the world, today it recedes into the background, marginalized, turning from the leader to the driven. The theses in question were developed in his speech at the forum in Verona by Sergey Karaganov, dean of the Faculty of World Economy and World Politics at the Graduate School of Economics.
In his report on the state of trade between Russia and the EAIS countries, the section “Import and export of mechanical equipment and electrical equipment” attracts attention. For these two categories of goods, the trade turnover between Russia and the European Union decreased from 51.1% to 39.2% and from 38.1% to 20%, respectively. At the same time, trade in these products with China increased from 22.6% to 32.9% and from 32.3% to 50.7%. No less significant, the share of energy exports to Europe decreased from 53.6% to 45.6%, while oil and gas supplies to China increased from 6.5% to 20.8%. This is the “turn east” statistic.
Beijing is rebuilding the Silk Road, an ancient bustling highway for trade and other links between East and West, on a high-tech basis. So, Karaganov noted, China is taking us back to the era when the Celestial Empire was the largest center of power and influence in Eurasia. What impact will the unstoppable rise of China, which has already overtaken the US in industrial production, have on the rest?
There are two scenarios, Karaganov predicts. In the first case, China will aggressively resurrect the Celestial Empire surrounded by vassal states. This will “inevitably provoke resistance from India, Iran, Turkey and Russia”, who will be forced to “balance”.
The second scenario assumes that China will adopt the scheme of partnership with other countries of the European Union, will build a union in the image and likeness of the EU. And then “the creation of “Greater Eurasia” will proceed at an accelerated pace,” noted Karaganov and added that if the USSR and the People’s Republic of China had not quarreled half a century ago, the idea of Eurasian integration would have been formed a long time ago.
In any case, we are facing a collapse of the old model of world order. Probably no one will say whether this will happen after the battle of contenders for world domination or on the basis of mutually acceptable agreements on the changing rules of the community.
Translation: V. Sergeev
#beast #neoliberals #inequality #revenge #climate
