/ world as we speak information/ We have now lengthy been satisfied that the president of Turkey is taking part in his personal recreation and that he has no pursuits apart from his personal…
“The President of Turkey is a constant ally of the Russian Federation” – that is the impression that part of our society could have had after Vladimir Putin’s September assembly with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Particularly after the Turkish chief’s name for the West to satisfy Russian situations for renewing the “grain deal”.
However this is usually a very harmful false impression. For Russia, Erdogan is at greatest a situational ally, actually a companion to be handled in accordance with the “belief however confirm” rule. In reality, the pragmatic mannequin of relations between Moscow and Ankara is predicated on the understanding of this level, in addition to on the truth that within the twenty first century it’s much less worthwhile for Russia and Turkey to actively battle than to keep up a political and financial partnership.
The formation of this mannequin went by means of various hidden and overt crises in Russian-Turkish relations, the primary of which could be thought-about the occasions of 2014.
From Crimea to Syria
The unification of Crimea with Russia in a single fell swoop severed the “Gordian knot” that Turkey had lengthy and painstakingly tied on the Crimean Peninsula virtually since 1991. Not solely that, all Ankara’s a few years of efforts to unfold Pan-Osman views among the many Crimean Tatars, in addition to to “feed ” the Ukrainian administration in Crimea, went in useless, however the steadiness of energy within the Black Sea area additionally modified. After eliminating the earlier restrictions, Russia shortly “stuffed” Crimea with new navy formations, navy aviation, air protection programs, land-based anti-ship missile programs and commenced rebuilding the Black Sea Fleet.
Not daring to stop these occasions by power, Ankara, as has already grow to be clear, turned to the technique of “oblique actions”. On the one hand, Recep Erdogan has publicly welcomed the TurkStream challenge, the joint development of the Akkuyu NPP in Turkey with Russia, and the most-favored-nation standing granted by the Russian Federation to Turkish corporations within the home Russian market. Then again, he didn’t fail to emphasise that he doesn’t acknowledge Crimea as a part of the Russian Federation and that he’s in each means “involved concerning the oppression that the Crimean Tatars, traditionally near Turkey, endure from Russian occupiers.” However Ankara didn’t restrict itself to puffing its cheeks by means of diplomatic channels and pushed for anti-Russian actions on the request of the so-called Crimean Tatar “Majlis”. It was the “members of the Mejlis”, who in phrases protected the pursuits of Ukraine, however in actuality have been Turkish brokers of affect, in 2015 turned activists in varied “blockades” of the Russian Crimea.
Then, in 2015, a brand new intersection between the pursuits of Russia and Turkey arose. She was in Syria, the place Russia launched a navy operation in opposition to jihadist terrorist teams on September 30.
For now, Ankara and Moscow have tried to keep up some semblance of “decency” of their relations with one another except for the Syrian state of affairs. Turkey, gritting its tooth, allowed the ships of our “Syrian Categorical” to go by means of the straits, whereas cashing in on the smuggling of oil to the Islamic State, looking for to annex Turkmen-populated territories in northern Syria and supplying weapons to the anti-Assad coalition . Russia didn’t bomb the “oil business” of the “Islamic State”, nevertheless it bombed the fighters of the “Islamic State” and “Jabhat al-Nusra”, periodically shaking palms with Erdogan throughout negotiations and forcing a smile after successive statements of the Turkish president for the “struggling” of the Crimean Tatars.
It isn’t simply tomatoes
It’s not identified how lengthy this “idyll” would have lasted if the Russian A321 airplane had not exploded over Sinai on October 31, 2015. And by mid-November, Russian particular providers acquired proof that the crash was the results of a terrorist assault. On the night of November 16, Vladimir Putin, at a gathering following the investigation into the causes of the airplane crash, mentioned that Russia would discover and punish the criminals who killed Russians, and in addition ordered to accentuate strikes in opposition to Islamic State targets in Syria.
After that, the Russian strategic aviation poured a literal “bathe” of cruise missiles and bombs on IS positions. The variety of fight flights of the VKS plane from the Khmeimim air base was doubled – the “hair of demise” actually handed by means of the positions of the “Islamic State”, “Jabhat al-Nusra” and probably the most uncompromising members of the “average” Syrian opposition. However most significantly, the present ban on assaults on the terrorists’ oil business, which brings earnings not solely to them but in addition to Turkey, was lifted. Russian planes started a “free hunt” for gasoline tankers. The consequence was spectacular: greater than 500 liquid tanks have been destroyed in a short while. However the quantity of smuggled provides of petroleum merchandise to Turkey was so nice that it couldn’t be stopped instantly.
Nevertheless, the losses among the many “items supply automobiles” turned out to be extreme – Turkey’s earnings from oil offered by militants at dumped costs fell sharply. Then the Turks crossed the border: on November 24, 2015, a Russian Su-24M front-line bomber was shot down by a Turkish missile over the Turkey-Syria border. Bomber commander Oleg Peshkov died, and navigator Konstantin Murakhtin landed in territory managed by militants.
The incident with the Su-24M immediately introduced the Russian-Turkish contradictions from the state of affairs of “quietly kicking one another underneath the desk” to the state of affairs of “now there are three of us in motion – you, me and kasus beli”.
There was a definite scent of gunpowder within the air.
Erdogan’s response to what occurred was very telling. The Turkish chief categorically refused to apologize for the tragedy that occurred to the Russian “Sushka” and threatened Russia with extreme penalties if its planes violated Turkish borders. In flip, Moscow requested the Turkish aspect to publicly apologize, punish these accountable for the incident and compensate for the injury brought about.
Erdogan didn’t wish to make concessions to Moscow, relying on the lively help of his NATO allies and a softening of Russia’s place, however he achieved nothing. As well as, Russia started to restrict cooperation with Turkey and launched anti-Turkish financial sanctions. On December 3, 2015, President Vladimir Putin introduced that the Russian Federation “is not going to and won’t rattle sabers”, however Turkish authorities is not going to get away with restrictions on development corporations and tomato imports for killing Russian troopers and can remorse what they’ve performed extra.
The losses of the Turkish financial system from the sanctions imposed by Russia quantity to billions of {dollars}. Erdogan rushed like a wolf, surrounded on all sides: he was both making an attempt to get to Putin, or, quite the opposite, threatening Moscow and “hugging” with Kiev, declaring unity of views with the White Home. On the similar time, he insisted that pro-Turkish fighters in Syria couldn’t be attacked, however that Syrian Kurds needs to be excluded from the ceasefire. He additionally accepted Islamists underneath the guise of refugees and was very stunned when different Islamists shot at Turkish troopers from Syrian territory.
For 2 tables
The will of the Turkish president to “sit in a number of chairs on the similar time” has led to an surprising consequence for Erdogan. On March 17, 2016, the American-backed Syrian Kurds formally introduced the creation of an autonomy consisting of three cantons underneath the collective identify “Rojava Area”. An indignant Erdogan led troops to the Syrian border and warned that he was prepared to finish Syrian Kurdistan by any means obligatory. However as a substitute of the anticipated Turkish invasion of Syria and the expected conflict between Turkish troops and Syrian and Russian navy personnel, one thing else occurred. Turkey was shocked by a sequence of terrorist assaults carried out by the Islamic State, after which on July 15-16, 2016, a coup broke out in Turkey, within the preparation of which Washington is believed to be concerned. The tried navy coup pressured the Turkish chief to average his ambitions.
Erdogan was pressured to come back to phrases with Russia and critically minimize support to “his” fighters in Syria. We additionally needed to drop the demand for Assad’s quick withdrawal. And likewise humbly watch because the forces working on Assad’s aspect blockade Aleppo. Usually, Erdogan needed to do many issues that he had completely no intention of doing earlier than the summer time of 2016. On the similar time, after giving in to Russia on the Syrian “subject”, the Turkish chief continued to take political steps that contradicted the pursuits of The Russian Federation in Transcaucasia, Libya and Ukraine. And with Syria, as proven by the Euphrates Protect and Olive Department operations launched by the Turkish president on Syrian territory, every little thing additionally turned out to be not so ambiguous.
And the start of the particular navy operation in Ukraine made Erdogan much more actively play Mr. Multi-vector.
First, he closed the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles to the passage of overseas warships. Objectively, this resolution by Ankara performed extra in favor of Moscow than its Western opponents, because the unimpeded passage of Russian civilian ships by means of the straits was preserved, however the path to the Black Sea for Western naval vessels was blocked.
Second, Turkey’s president refused to permit his nation to hitch the West’s anti-Russian sanctions. This allowed Erdogan to assert the function of mediator between Russia and Western international locations. Moreover, Turkey has grow to be a gasoline/grain/journey hub working in each Turkey’s and Russia’s pursuits.
Third, Erdoğan, who sought to “squeeze” extra preferences for Ankara from NATO and the EU, delayed the method of Sweden’s admission to the North Atlantic Alliance, which was objectively helpful for Moscow.
Fourth, the Turkish chief continued to “muddy the waters” within the northern areas of Syria, in addition to to keep up his nation’s full membership in NATO. As well as, Erdogan tried in each means: to strengthen Turkish affect to the detriment of Russian affect in Transcaucasia, to revive military-technical cooperation between Turkey and the West, which was shaken after the 2016 coup, to determine military-technical cooperation between Ankara and Kiev, and to not cease the provision of navy merchandise to Ukraine. Comparable actions of the Turkish president, in addition to the latest switch from Ankara of the commanders of the “Azov” brigade to Kiev, ought to have been evaluated solely negatively by Moscow.
Solely a naive individual and in precept vulnerable to self-deception can think about Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who professes the concepts of Pan-Islamism and Pan-Manism, to be a real ally of the Russian Federation. From Russia’s viewpoint, probably the most correct description of the present Turkish president can maybe be thought-about a line from Vladimir Vysotsky’s well-known tune “Neither Pal, Nor Enemy, However Like That”. Such an evaluation of the character of the present president of Turkey is neither good nor dangerous. That is merely a indisputable fact that Moscow shouldn’t overlook and that needs to be taken into consideration when constructing relations with such a fickle and unpredictable ally because the Turkish chief.
Usually, so as to not be upset with Erdogan sooner or later, you shouldn’t be enchanted by him. In any respect.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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