The twelve-month Euribor, the indicator most used in the State to calculate the installments of variable mortgages, is on track to close November with an average rate of around 4.028%, which will mark its second drop of the year. Despite this foreseeable decrease in the Euribor in November, the installments of variable mortgages that have to be reviewed annually and with this month’s data will become more expensive again, since a year ago, in November 2022, the Euribor was at 2.828%.
Thus, for an average variable mortgage of 150,000 euros, with a term of 25 years and with an interest rate of Euribor plus 1%, the installments will go from 777 to 880 euros. After falling to 4.073% in August, which was the first decrease in just over a year and a half, the Euribor rose again in September (4.149%), and in October (4.160%). With five sessions left until the end of the month, the indicator provisionally remains in November at around 4.028%, a new drop after two consecutive months of increases.
And this, after the European Central Bank (ECB) decided at the end of last month to stop interest rate increases, although it warned that they will remain high for “a sufficiently long period.” In this sense, Kelisto experts already explained that the current time is a time of uncertainty with regard to the ECB’s policies and, consequently, in the evolution of the mortgage reference indicator. Also from Asufin they explained that the uncertainty of the moment causes a “sawtooth” behavior of the Euribor, which will continue until the rates are lowered, foreseeably at the end of the year or the beginning of the first quarter of 2024. In this context, Most analysts expect the indicator to remain around the current figures, and the forecast is that it will close the year between 3.8% and 4.1%.
BCE
During the month of November, the Euribor reached a maximum rate of 4.064% on the 14th. The minimum was 3.991% on the 17th, which was its first drop below 4% in rate. daily since June. The Euribor stood at 0.009 percentage points above the September level in October, when it stood at 4.149%. In addition, it rose 1,531 points compared to October 2022, when it was at 2,629%.
Experts highlight the importance of the next meeting of the European Central Bank, scheduled for December 14, and believe that “little by little” the index seems to begin to stagnate, in the heat of the ECB’s pause in interest rate increases . However, it is not ruled out that there will be a new increase in the Governing Council on that date. “The battle is not over and we are certainly not claiming victory,” said the president of the ECB, the Frenchwoman Christine Lagarde, last week at a colloquium organized by the Bundesbank in Frankfurt, although she highlighted that the slowdown in the inflation rate, which has dropped to 2.9% in October, compared to 10.6% a year before, “it is progress.” “We are going to win the battle of inflation,” summarized the top leader of the ECB.
2023-11-27 08:38:52
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