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The miscalculation of the West and the most important lesson of Russia’s war against Ukraine

During the summit of NATO defense ministers and the meeting of the Ramstein Group, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that “one of the lessons we have already learned from the war in Ukraine is the importance of timely support for partners”.

It was about how NATO can help the Republic of Moldova and Georgia, whose sovereignty and stability is also under threat because of Russia’s aggressive plans for revenge not only in Ukraine, but throughout the entire post-Soviet space. That is why the words of the NATO Secretary General, I am sure, are indeed an important conclusion from the situation that has developed in the post-Soviet space, writes Vitaly Portnikov for Crimean realities.

On January 26 last year, a few weeks before Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the same Jens Stoltenberg read out NATO’s proposals on security in the region, which were a response to a well-known Russian document demanding NATO to abandon expansion and accept the former Soviet republics as the main “guarantee security” of Russia. NATO’s response was to withdraw Russian troops from the territory of the former Soviet republics.


Russia must refrain from positioning power, aggressive rhetoric and malicious activities directed against allies and other countries. Russia must also withdraw its troops from Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, where they are stationed without the consent of these countries.and all parties must participate constructively in efforts to resolve conflicts,” the document said.

The Kremlin’s response to these, I believe, constructive proposals was an attack on Ukraine. Now we know that a coup d’etat in Moldova was probably also being prepared.

It seems that not only has Russia not abandoned its efforts to destabilize neighboring countries, it has intensified them many times over. I think she turned the war not even into a continuation of politics, but into a substitution of politics.

However, something else needs to be acknowledged. For a long time, conflicts in the post-Soviet space were perceived by the West as conflicts in the post-Soviet “backyard”. They even talked about what was happening in Transnistria or Abkhazia with some relief: the Soviet Union could explode, turn into a “huge Yugoslavia” and that would be a real disaster. And you can get used to small local conflicts, this is more a problem for Russia than the West. Even when Russia not only occupied, but annexed Crimea, that is, it simply trampled on post-war international law, the position of the international community did not undergo obvious changes.

In words, although, of course, sanctions were even imposed against Russia, strengthened after the occupation of Donbass. But in reality the conflict continued to be post-Soviet. And he remained the same even after the Russian attack on Ukraine on February 24 last year. Even after the appearance of that very “big Yugoslavia”, which everyone was so afraid of in the 90s of the last century. “Greater Yugoslavia” already exists, and the conclusion is the same – the conflict must not go beyond the boundaries of the post-Soviet space, the transformation of the NATO countries into the side of the conflict must not be allowed.

And this, perhaps, is what unites both the most zealous supporters of Ukraine in the alliance and those who are trying to stay away from the war. I think it is this perception of even a major war as a post-Soviet conflict that really unites the West.

Meanwhile, I’m sure it’s always been a value conflict. It was a battle for the right of states to sovereignty, territorial integrity and the ability to independently determine their future. And in this sense, the law of Ukraine or Moldova is absolutely no different from the law of Germany or Poland.

If the civilized world does not learn this – perhaps the most important – lesson of Russia’s war against Ukraine, then sooner or later, I am sure, the war will spread to other territories. Yes, I fully admit that the war will not directly affect the NATO countries. But the West can simply deplete its resources under the weight of constant conflicts, influx of new refugees, economic and social problems. The conclusion, I think, is very simple: Putin must be stopped while there are still opportunities for the survival and development of the civilized world. Copyright © 2020 RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with permission from Krym.Realii (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty).

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