Those who fed – freuds! – hopes that things in the economy will go better and they will “have received” it is good to “land” them in the hard and relentless reality.
smooth okay? Because “bumpy landing” can even cause… mental trauma! And this is no time for such….
The medium term
The cabinet is meeting today to approve the medium-term fiscal adjustment program. And who else is the rapporteur?
The Minister of National Economy and Finance Mr. Kostis Hatzidakis – the… “beloved” of the “10+1” as the “11” MPs of the New Democracy have become!
Prosperity in numbers
So, I learn that the program in question will be the “road map” of the economic policy until 2028. According to what is predicted, the GDP in 2028 will be 280 billion euros and the debt will fall to 130%.
It predicts consistently high growth rates of 2% per year – for this year the economic staff has finally accepted the European Commission’s conservative estimate of 2.2% growth, despite its initially optimistic forecasts.
The primary surplus will be 2.4% annually. And unemployment will drop to 8.5% – with the minimum wage at €950 and the average at €1,500 per month in 2027!
The cannons will press the… butter
All this good. The best thing is that the annual fiscal space created is 3.1% to 3.2%. That is how much the expenses can increase every year.
But if you think that the 1 billion euros will concern pensions and from 800 million euros to 1 billion euros the equipment programs, what is left for all the rest?
Peanuts….
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Closing of 9 months
9 month closing today for the stock market and the performance is maintained in double-digit percentages, a little over +13% for the general index, but with several but…
For seven months it has fluctuated between 100 points, with several foreign portfolios having already liquidated.
The outflows in the HEXA data confirm this, but as my source from the market typically told me, if you put down how many funds have been “raised” this seven months, you will understand why the market is stuck.
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And more will rise…
And the absorption of liquidity will not stop here.
With a basic fact the placement of the national team sure.
It is estimated that the offers that will be placed in the system for the National team will cover the amount by 7 or 8 times. In the conservative estimate.
This means that the offers can reach even 6 billion.
As my source even told me… “it is extremely important to bid 6% or 7% of a market’s total market capitalization for a single listing”.
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Liquidity test
In October we will also have the capital increases of Cenergy and Bank of Attica whose outcome will not be independent of the degree of success of the National Bank.
The endurance of the system will be tested, as will the liquidity of the market.
But until then there will not be a few foreigners who will indulge in trading to improve valuations.
After all, we are entering the last two months of the year and everyone wants to be happy. Don’t forget that the use for foreigners closes at the end of November.
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The publication problem
Recently, however, the issue of delays in the announcement of results, which is critical for many foreign portfolios, has resurfaced once again.
In other words, the 9-month period is coming to an end and only a little over half of the listed companies have announced a 6-month period.
That is, if the market wants to attract capital, they should be more consistent with what most investors want. At least full disclosure of their performance, even if they are not required to.
At least the ones announcing show resilience…
Despite this, the 88 listed companies that have announced so far seem particularly resilient in their performance.
According to Beta Sec data, they show a 4.9% increase in revenue, a 14.8% increase in operating profits to 7.2 billion euros and a 14.3% increase in net profits to 5.6 billion euros.
In terms of operating profits, the difference comes from the performance of PPC, AVAX, AIA, Jumbo, Cenergy and Titan.
At the same time, the distribution of profitable companies has a significant majority current with a rate of 85%.
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Hydrocarbons
Two years have passed since Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis announced the “Hydrocarbons 2.0” strategic program setting as projects of national importance the researches for the identification of natural gas deposits in the sea plots of the Ionian and Crete.
The truth is that since then the investors ExxonMobil, Helleniq Energy and Energean under the coordination of EDEYEP and the CEO Ari Stefatou they moved very quickly.
Eight seismic surveys were carried out…
The revelation
OT reveals today, as you will read in a related report, the first preliminary estimates for natural gas reserves in the country.
I don’t know if in a few years we will be walking around with kelebia… but the truth is that even if the drilling confirms the existence of such deposits, Greece is changing course…
The mysterious investor…
However, because the OT has at its disposal the annual financial report of EDEYEP for 2023 and I looked it up and stopped at a reference to it.
Last year drilling data was sold for 280,000 euros.
Which means that some investor besides the above-mentioned tenants of the marine concessions, is looking to come and get stuck… in some of the schemes…
Η Chevron
Let me remind you of the scenarios that Chevron executives wanted to have visited the management of Helleniq Energy last year in January…
What is certain is that both Helleniq Energy and Energean are eagerly looking for partners for the sea blocks of the Ionian Sea.
No, neither would ExxonMobil in Crete, as I learn…
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George Pitsilis
The commander of AADE George Pitsilis if nothing else during his tenure at the Independent Authority, he has to demonstrate an important work in dealing with tax evasion.
The same is the case with the digitization of services to taxpayers.
His term, however, expires at the end of the year.
And this juncture has sparked various scenarios as to whether he stays or leaves…
Extension
What I am learning is that the announcement for the post of AADE commander has not yet been prepared…
And I am informed that Mr. Pitsili’s term of office will be extended for one semester until the announcement is prepared…
Now, why was it late? I don’t know, I’m looking for it…
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