“The metropolization policy is a few winners, but a lot of losers”, estimates a geographer

• The geographer Laurent Chalard analyzed the departmental demography of the decade 2008-2018, post-subprime economic crisis, in the North.
• At the municipal level, the metropolitanization process is accelerating because all the growing municipalities are located in the outskirts of Lille.
• He is worried about this metropolitanization policy led by France.

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And if we talk about land use planning again? While INSEE has just unveiled the 2018 population census, the geographer Laurent Chalard, member of the think tank
European centre for international affairs, analyzed the departmental demography of the decade 2008-2018, post-subprime economic crisis, in the North. He is worried about the metropolitanization policy pursued by France.

What is the first observation over these ten years?

Departmental dynamics are strongly linked to variations in its migratory attractiveness because the natural balance tends to diminish. At the level of the municipalities, we can see an acceleration of the metropolization process because all the growing municipalities are located on the outskirts of Lille, with the exception of the specific cases of Grande-Synthe, whose growth was linked to the migrant camp, and Bailleul.

Are the other major cities all the losers?

Yes. In particular Dunkirk, but also Douai, Maubeuge and Fourmies. There is one exception: Cambrai which maintains its population stable, but thanks to a very high birth rate. It is a characteristic of this city to be one of the most fertile in France.

How is that explained?

The North has been subject to a migratory deficit since the 1970s. There are more departures than arrivals, especially from young working people. This migratory deficit has remained broadly stable for ten years thanks to the phenomenon of metropolitanization around Lille. And this metropolization is accompanied by deindustrialisation. In the Lille metropolitan area, for example, industry represented only 9.6% of jobs in 2017, against another 12.9% in 2007.

The metropolis of Lille therefore remains the only attractive area …

The number of jobs in the catchment area of ​​Lille rose from 584,914 in 2007 to 606,659 in 2017, a rather remarkable increase in the post-crisis context of 2008. While at the level of the department, the employment is relatively stable, going from 977,175 in 2007 to 980,850 in 2017. We can see that the dynamic is essentially Lille.

What problem can this pose?

The further one moves away from the metropolis, the more the demography drops because of the lack of jobs. In Dunkirk, for example, factories remain but productivity gains reduce the number of jobs. This raises questions about the metropolization policy. This dominant theory of neoliberal inspiration would like that, when the big cities reach a critical threshold, they cause the runoff of the population. Runoff that we are still waiting for.

Why it does not work ?

French metropolises are less populated and less powerful than Turin, Milan or Barcelona, ​​for example. The area of ​​influence therefore remains very limited. In Lille, for example, runoff no longer works beyond 30 km. If the public authorities allow this metropolisation to take hold, there will be a few winners, but many more losers.

Are there other solutions?

I am in favor of the return of the regional planning policy by wondering how to bring back employment. The relocation of industrial activities could be a solution. Not in the metropolis of Lille, which has developed the service sector, but why not in certain medium-sized towns, as Valenciennes has done for example. It will require a change of mentality vis-à-vis the working class. By promoting work in factories, as in Germany. More than elsewhere, the North has this qualified workforce and this capacity for innovation.