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The mathematician Prof. Ognyan Kunchev PHOTO: BTV
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Infection with it becomes very easy, warns the expert
Bulgaria ranks last in terms of vaccination in the EU, and the “Delta” version of COVID-19 has an extremely high prevalence and it is very easy to become infected with it. A person infected with this variant of the coronavirus has hundreds of times more viruses and a higher radiation ability than those infected with the “Alpha” variant of COVID-19. If an infected person with the “Delta” variant enters a supermarket and coughs there , will infect many people “, said in an interview for BTA Prof. Ognyan Kunchev from the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics of BAS, when asked how the coronavirus pandemic will develop in our country.
The scientist, who is developing mathematical models for the development of the pandemic, recommended staying as little as possible indoors, where there are many people, and said that the state should consider how more people can be vaccinated in our country. Unfortunately, we have no alternative – we must be vaccinated, but also to comply with anti-epidemic measures, is the opinion of Prof. Kunchev.
WITH THE “DELTA” VARIETY, MANY YOUNG PEOPLE BECOME INFECTED
Unfortunately, many young people are also beginning to become infected with the Delta variant of the coronavirus, the mathematician said. Prof. Kunchev clarified that people from 35 to 40 years of age are also infected, and then people from 60 to 65 years of age, as well as “upwards”.
In-person training is also related to the vaccination of teachers, and schools are places where many people meet – teachers and students, said the mathematician. He stressed that the education system is large and includes many institutions – schools, kindergartens and universities, with teachers, teachers, children and students in constant contact with each other.
Another fact related to the spread of the coronavirus is that 41 percent of the generations in our country live in one place – in one home. These are three generations – the elderly grandparents, parents and their grandchildren. In these families, young people who go to different places “carry the virus” at home to their grandparents, commented Prof. Ognyan Kunchev. He noted that in Western Europe, the virus is more difficult to spread because there is no such generational mix.
WHEN WILL WE HAVE THE PEAK OF THE FOURTH WAVE OF COVID-19?
It is difficult to answer when will be the peak in Bulgaria of the so-called fourth wave of COVID-19, said Prof. Ognyan Kunchev and clarified that when announcing now those infected with coronavirus in our country it is not clear how many of them are foreigners. According to mathematics, mainly among the infected in our country now are young people who visit bars and restaurants – in Sofia and by the sea, and returning to their native places, especially from the Black Sea coast, become major sources of infection for their loved ones.
Among the infected there are also foreign tourists, and there will probably be a slight stoppage of the rate of infection in early September, when the season on our Black Sea coast ends, the mathematician predicts. However, he added that when students go to school, there is a possibility of an increase in the number of infected, but commented that it is not right to “keep children locked up at home from September 15.”
IT IS REASONABLE FOR THE SCHOOL YEAR TO BEGIN ON SEPTEMBER 1
That is why it is reasonable in our country, as in many other countries in Europe, for the school year to start on September 1, and not on September 15, in order to avoid seasonal flu, is the opinion of Prof. Ognyan Kunchev. He noted that in some countries the summer vacation is shorter, but then there are more vacations during the school year.
“I think it is reasonable in the new school year for students to go to school in person for at least a month or a month and a half, unless somewhere in the country there are very severe cases of COVID-19 infection and only there they may not attend school in person. This is very important because the third school year will begin, which for students is accompanied by restrictions in attendance due to the coronavirus, “said Prof. Kunchev.
He reminded that a “lockdown” was announced in Bulgaria on November 29, 2020, but predicted that now the situation is more serious because it is still August and the number of infected is increasing. The prognosis for the development of the fourth wave of COVID-19 is difficult and is related to the vaccination process, the mathematician noted.
IF THE VACCINATION IS NOT CARRIED OUT, THE COLLECTIVE IMMUNITY WILL NOT BE BUILT
Israel is a reasonable country in which vaccination of the population was serious, but now the country has started to increase the number of infected people. This is as a result of the fact that the immunity of the vaccinated begins to weaken, because the vaccination in Israel started in December 2020, said Prof. Ognyan Kunchev. “From the example of Israel, we can conclude that immunity from vaccination lasts for about six months, but the Delta variant is also very contagious,” the mathematician commented.
He is of the opinion that it has been proven worldwide that “vaccines are not harmful, and so far there has been no such mass vaccination of the population.” If the vaccination is not done, there is no way to build the collective immunity, said Prof. Kunchev.
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