The market is at a turning point Investing.com

“For every action there is a reaction equal in strength and opposite in direction.”

Newton’s third law

Imagine that you are driving a car at its fastest speed, and a few meters from the road there is a turn to the right, and suddenly you decide to slow down your speed so much ‘ as much as you can to make the turn feel as if the car and you are forcefully pushing it, if they don’t leave at all. this is exactly what causes accidents to most racers and a large group of drifting enthusiasts, and it is this that has led companies to try to reduce the effect of this force on the car itself by change the braking system.

Centrifugal force does not only exist in leadership, but it exists in all markets, especially highly volatile markets, which we measure by volume divided by closing orders, which expresses the strength of the effect of volatility of opinion due to major news that shakes the markets. .

In 1997, Asian markets witnessed one of the worst financial crises in modern history, known as the Asian financial crisis Asian markets were flying high, driven by unprecedented economic growth, great expansion of business, and unparalleled confidence, until there was a rumor. that caused everyone to suddenly sell without any precedent.

This case happened again at a time when the market was rising beyond logic, every time it was waiting for decisive elections, or really brutal news.

The latest news and its effect on the price

“The problem with economists is that they have to obey the dictates of politicians, and this is what causes the truth of the law of economics to be delayed until it appears properly.”

Charles Whelan

1. Tensions in the Middle East are still high, and this is what makes the consolidation of the highest levels of penetration mean a collapse (did you know that oil will come near its guiding levels, meaning fall, the fuse of wars is lit, and it rises).

2. Uncertainty continues in the market, and the strength of gold towards the great increase has begun to slow down with a force similar to the strength of the increase, in case the Harris takes power in the states (Tuesday is the result of the American elections). , and we will publish on our Twitter a detailed analysis of the impact of each president on the market).

3. We are days away from the Fed’s second rate cut date, which is expected to come and be positive for gold prices (Thursday).

4. Trump is significantly ahead of the US election results over his colleague Harris, and this is what is reviving the money markets and slowing the progress of gold.

Conclusion:

Of course, a change in the ruler of the largest economic country in the world will affect the course of the market, but I believe that the effect will not change the path so much as it will change the behavior the attack of this direction, and this will be it. very high volatility behavior for all markets, without dispute, digital currency, commodities, derivatives, currencies, especially in the early stages, because the largest group believes that each one has a greater impact on a market special, and the second has a greater impact. another effect.

I do not deny that Trump has a positive influence on digital currencies, and gold if he is nominated, unlike his colleague Harris, but this does not prevent the market to be positive by presence or absence, so his presence will accelerate this certainty and nothing more.

But the idea that one carries a positive and the other a negative on a market based on their behavior, in itself carries a centrifugal force for all markets until known distance transfer to the destination, which makes the investment decision as a form. of madness during this period, so wait to find out who he gets and what his decisions will be.

We will publish another article here, and mention on Twitter the influence of each governor, regardless of whether he is a relative (whether it is Harris or Trump).

Economic analysis

If the market were based on certainty, the standards would be completely different. “

Mark Douglas

Looking at the economic indicators, we notice that inflation is still high at 2.4, which puts it far from the target set by Jerome, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and this is what makes me say be slow (quarter point, not half point).

But looking at the economic growth of GDP, we notice a significant decline in growth at a rate of 0.4, and this is what makes me say that the reduction is inevitable, and by putting the -agreement involved, but with inflation, we say it will be. slow

By examining the effect of lowering interest rates on gold, it can be said that each season of lowering carries a 2% burden for gold in the medium term.

But a reduction is expected “Everything expected in the economy is coming true. ” – Charles Woe So, the interest rate cut won’t have an impact, but the conversation that happens after the cut will have the biggest impact, especially as we want to know what the new path will be. what the Fed has and what are its views on the new economic developments. . So, the price depends on what the Fed talks about, and we will publish the impact of the speech and we will consider it right after the speech ends on Thursday, however, it will be to some extent very optimistic for gold prices.

Technical analysis

“Treat the market as an environment of opportunity and all possibilities are possible. This is the only way to avoid things you don’t know about the market maker.” “

Mark Douglas

1. The increase in the standard deviation for gold is evidence of an increase in risk for gold, and the beginning of the preparation for a more violent movement.

2. Level 2890 within mathematical probability.

3. There are only buy levels 2720 – 2680, and this makes it the biggest swing zone.

4. The liquidity of gold decreases and increases by the same amount on…

Conclusion:

It is possible to target the level 2900 – 3000, but the situation is to reconfirm the level 2720 – 2690 Otherwise, we are facing a state of chaos depending on the news, the an effect I haven’t seen in the markets since 2018.

A financial advisor’s opinion

The market is rarely so ambiguous, and this is exactly the extent to which wealth is redistributed, but what I am absolutely sure of is that the market maker does not decide according to the news, but at this point most people. be brave and stay away until the storm passes.

Councilor Omar Jassim Al Sayyah

There is a lot waiting for you on my Twitter.. Follow me now

X: @omarsyyah The price depends on what the Fed talks about