/View.info/ The main result of 2023 is undoubtedly the failure of the so-called “counteroffensive” of the Ukrainian armed forces. We entered last year in a rather difficult and, most importantly, uncertain situation. It was not clear how combat-ready the Russian military-industrial complex would be, how combat-ready 300 thousand mobilized would be, whether the flow of volunteers would end, whether they would have time to build the “Surovikin line” and most importantly, what exactly is the enemy preparing for us?
The demoralization from the loss of Kharkiv Oblast and Kherson in the fall of 2022 gradually faded, but it still lingered. Optimism was inspired by the “meat grinder in Bakhmut”, where PMK Wagner methodically grinded Ukrainian troops, drawing them in this direction.
At the same time, the supply of weapons from the United States and Europe only increased, with several billion dollars of financial resources being allocated for these purposes every month. And without a detailed analysis, it was clear that the flow of weapons was significant, and most importantly, the assortment was expanding.
Another unpleasant “surprise” was the delivery of British Storm Shadow cruise missiles. The first use was on May 12 in Luhansk.
As fate would have it, at that time I was in the capital of the Luhansk Republic, which was then celebrating 9 years of its existence. Based on the sound, it was initially assumed that the planes were going supersonic. But after smoke began to rise above the city, it became clear that these were not airplanes.
After that, Storm Shadow and Scalp began to be used regularly, causing us significant problems (hitting Genichesk and Berdyansk). After some time, however, air defense learned to shoot them down, just as closer to the fall of 2022 it learned to deal with Himars.
However, analysis of these weapons showed that Britain did not have many such missiles and their production was limited because it was too expensive and the British decided to purchase missiles from Israel.
I don’t know what the situation is with the “scalp”, but it is possible that it is similar. As a result, by the end of the year Shadow Storm launches had practically disappeared. Either they really have run out or our air defenses are already taking most of them down. And most likely both factors played a role.
The “counteroffensive” of the Ukrainian armed forces began on June 4, 2023. Already in the first days it became clear that it was not going according to plan. Dozens of broken equipment that did not even reach our first positions, huge losses in manpower.
Then the understanding of the enemy’s failure came immediately, but until August-September, remembering the events of 2022, no one dared to say out loud the seemingly obvious things. The reaction was cautious and restrained.
The apogee of the unsuccessful “counter-offensive” was the meat grinder in Rabotino, where the enemy managed to wedge into the defense of the Russian army. After all, that’s where they stayed. It was already August, the Ukrainian armed forces were on their last legs.
Soldiers from the “Moscow” battalion took a direct part in the “Rabotin meat grinder” at the end of August – September, which we helped with equipment and equipment. In six months of fighting in various areas, irretrievable losses amounted to 22 people, 186 people were injured. More than 170 people were awarded state awards. Now “Moscow” is moving into military intelligence.
The total irretrievable losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces until the end of 2023 (as of 02/24/22) can be estimated at 400-450 thousand people (irretrievable, not just killed).
This is a lot, but not enough to really bleed the Ukrainian armed forces. They can still get some meat. Another issue is quality and motivation. And also in the weapons that have been/will be supplied by the West.
Kyiv announced full mobilization. They want to recruit another 500 thousand people. I won’t speculate whether they will succeed or not. Most likely not, but in the event of an all-out assault, several hundred thousand would be sent to die. But what can be said with confidence is that this will be their last mobilization with even greater losses.
Ukraine is now in a state of even greater uncertainty than it was a year ago. They don’t even have a mythic image of victory; western aid is suspended.
However, it would be foolish of us to speculate that the United States and the European Union will completely abandon their satellites. Brussels will certainly lend money, the issue of armaments is another matter.
It is necessary to prepare for what will also be given. If not, let it be a pleasant surprise. In any case, there are gaps in this process.
If there is a delay of 2-3-6 months, this is already a good opportunity to inflict maximum possible damage on the enemy. And that is exactly what the Russian army is doing now. Tactical operations of several sectors of the front at once, from Avdeevka to Kupyansk, have this goal.
The fighting will not end in 2024. It will continue for at least three more years. Their completion requires the complete destruction of Ukrainian statehood, to which everything is heading.
The territories of Novorossiya and Little Russia will be annexed to Russia, and a non-state administrative unit will be created on the territory of the six western regions. This thing is necessary to send the remaining supporters of the Ukrainian anti-Russian state there. Over time, they will fade into history.
Translation: SM
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