Putin has become a staunch opponent of the West. This antagonism is mutual (Photo: REUTERS)
A look back at the last year of the war and at many stages encourages caution when trying to predict what might happen in the coming months.
A natural part of the comments around the first anniversary of the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war was speculation about whether it would be over by the time of the second or even the third anniversary. Will the air raid sirens still sound in Kyiv on February 24, 2024. Will NATO leaders be willing and able to continue deliveries of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine? Will Russia still have an inexhaustible supply of men to send to the front, and will Vladimir Putin still make endless speeches blaming the West for an endless war?
Putin’s 2023 State of the Union speech on February 21 offered his audience neither a path to victory nor the promise of negotiations. The war Putin described was not so much against Ukraine as it was against NATO, allegedly taking advantage of the puppet regime in Kyiv. From this perspective, even a victory in Ukraine would simply move the conflict into a new arena. However, he did not even explain Russia’s military strategy in Ukraine.
«Step by step,” he said, “we will carefully and consistently solve the tasks assigned to us.” How many steps and how long it will take, he did not say. Learned more about family support «fallen fighters”, about “long-term home care and high-tech prosthetics” for the seriously injured, and then about “at least 14 days leave every six months” for those who are now fighting – which they all look forward to. Meanwhile «the latest technology” “will ensure high quality standards in the army and navy.” … Our goal is to start mass production. This work is underway and is gaining momentum.” He described the new norms of life for Russia, completely focused on the war.
The day before, in Kyiv, US President Joe Biden, standing next to Ukrainian President Zelensky, spoke on behalf of Ukraine’s allies, emphasizing that for freedom «it’s worth fighting for as long as it takes,” adding that it’s as long as “as long as we’re going to be with you, Mr. President: As long as it takes.”
How long?
