Victory against Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election, majority snatched in extremis in both chambers of Congress, vaccines available in large numbers and for all, economic recovery, sharply falling unemployment rate, reduction in child poverty, legislative advances major: after four turbulent years, punctuated by a major health crisis and an attack on the Capitol, Democratic America has finally something to celebrate and reassure. In any case, this is the feeling of those who contemplate the facade but do not enter the building.
Inside, there are more and more cracks and the foundations are in an advanced state of disrepair. Out of breath, attacked by a Republican Party with authoritarian tendencies, trapped by all-powerful lobbies and plagued by conspiracy, American democracy is cornered. In this context, the return to power of the Democratic Party last January could be only a mirage, or at best constitute the last hope of a democratic renewal. One year after the presidential election, Christophe Le Boucher and Clément Pairot, specialists in the United States, establish this observation in their book The Lost Illusions of Democratic America, published on October 14, 2021 by Vendémiaire editions.
Make Authoritarianism Great Again
Donald Trump could have foiled the prognosis and re-stacked for a second term if he had not been compelled to deny the seriousness of the health crisis to the point of ridiculing himself many times during his speeches. Unable to put on the costume of Father of the Nation and to show empathy, the New York billionaire once again took refuge in excess in an attempt to hide his incompetence. Usually comfortable in this register, the 45th president has, this time, not measured the trauma linked to the consequences of the pandemic on the American people.
Noting that he was losing ground, Donald Trump chose to flatter the worst of conspiracy to avoid questioning. He would have seen it as an attack on his pride and his virility, but on the electoral level, it could nevertheless have borne fruit. For many months, he was content to accuse – without proof – the Democrats of organizing a massive fraud for the election. Before claiming victory on the night of November 3, then organizing a ridiculous legal fight aimed at getting recognition for what he still qualifies today as “Big Lie».
This unprecedented attack on American democracy having ended in failure, the president took advantage of his status as a conservative icon to push his supporters to invade the Capitol on January 6, 2021, the day the election results were certified. . Escaping impeachment thanks to the cowardice of a hard-pressed Republican Party, Donald Trump has since undertaken an authoritarian and total takeover of his political family, one after the other dismissing all internal opponents in order to pave the way for a new attempted subversion if unsuccessful in 2024.
Worse, the succession of lies has infused within the Republican electorate, to the point that much of it considers Joe Biden to be an illegitimate president. The failure of the sixty appeals filed in the courts and the refusal of the Supreme Court to agree with Trump will not have changed anything.
An outdated political system
In a country renowned for its solid and long-standing institutions, this situation seems incomprehensible. All this was however made possible by a political system which has become largely unfavorable to the Democrats, because it has not taken into account the geographic and demographic evolutions of the last decades.
Although their program is little supported, the Republicans derive an undeniable benefit from it. “They are set to seize power for a decade, while defending the economic interests of an oligarchy with the support of a minority of the electorate.», Explains Christophe Le Boucher.
Strong in the less populated and more rural states, the GOP [Grand Old Party, surnom du Parti républicain, ndlr], maintains itself and obtains significant victories. Thanks to the electoral college, George W. Bush and Donald Trump were able to access the White House with fewer votes than their respective opponents. Despite losing by more than 8 million votes in 2020 to Joe Biden, Trump could have won with just 50,000 more votes spread over four key states.
A status quo that suits the Republican Party perfectly and does Donald Trump’s business.
Thanks to the composition of the Senate (two seats per state), the Republicans are ultra competitive and regularly win the majority. The 600,000 inhabitants of Wyoming carry as much political weight as the 40 million Californians. That is why the Democrats now control the upper house with one vote, although their senators represent tens of millions more than the Republican senators.
Add to that the parliamentary obstruction procedure (or filibuster), requiring sixty votes to be circumvented, as well as the political weight of the lobbies, and you will then understand why the United States Senate is called a legislative graveyard. Difficult in these conditions to move the lines, reduce inequalities, act for the climate, regulate the carrying of weapons, protect the right to vote or condemn a president who incited his supporters to attack the temple of American democracy. A status quo that suits the Republican Party perfectly and does Donald Trump’s business.
Democratic America has something to panic about
The trap is closing slowly but surely on the Democrats. In the states it controls, the GOP, Using the pretext of fighting against electoral fraud, is increasing the number of bills to restrict access to the vote for minorities and working classes. In parallel, the gerrymandering, electoral redistribution operation which takes place every ten years after the census, looks more and more like an ultra partisan pork-butchery. And should condemn Democrats to lose the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections.
Well helped by the conservative media, the Republican Party multiplies cultural battles by exaggerating or creating from scratch moral panics via the denunciation of “wokisme » and some “critical race theory», with the consequence of worsening divisions within the American population.
The Democratic Party has turned into a political current aimed exclusively at an urban and well-off electorate.
In the face of this, the Democrats seem incapable of reacting and counterattacking. “For lack of having carried out the necessary institutional reforms, Christophe Le Boucher analysis, Joe Biden will have to win the midterm elections by a large margin to hope to retain his majority. A task that is all the more complicated as it gave up entire sections of its program during the legislative process which should lead to the vote of its major investment project Build Back Better. ”
Designating the Republican Party as the sole culprit would be unfair. After abandoning the political legacy of Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon B. Johnson for several decades, Democrats are struggling to bring back the working class, essential in key states. By having bet everything on the societal aspect – to the point of sometimes turning into a caricatural foil – and on the growing part of the weight of the minority vote, the Democratic Party has transformed into a political current exclusively turned towards an urban electorate and easy.
Even Barack Obama, who has given hope to the average American, has not succeeded in reversing this dynamic. Joe Biden, chosen by default, seems to have realized the need for political software change. But, in a particularly difficult context and without elbow room in Congress, its action is limited and could disappoint.
Despite this dark portrait of the world’s leading power, glimmers of hope appear. Social movements have renewed and adapted to the XXIe century: in recent years, the Sunrise Movement, Black Lives Matter, March For Our Lives ou encore la Women’s March have been able to mobilize the masses to lead political battles or denounce the failings of those in power.
The Democratic Party is undergoing major changes: the desire to follow in the footsteps of the New Deal or the Large Society, a new generation of committed elected representatives present at Congress and in local political bodies, many fascinating strategic and programmatic debates.
Will all of this be enough to weather the next reactionary storm? Hasn’t Democratic America already fallen too far behind? Questions, for the moment unanswered, which deserve to be asked and allow us to reflect on the future of the United States, beacon of the Western world, whose developments always end up crossing the Atlantic and influencing the Old Continent.
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