- An organization was underway for the Prime Minister to go with the coalition partners to Ukraine to drop the red lines
- What exactly did we do for the war, the refugees, the sanctions
- The state does not allow, but the Bulgarian business has exported 3 times more weapons between February 20 and April 13, according to official data
The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba spent three days “protocolically” in Sofia, before he asked in plain text to give weapons to his warring party. This further strengthened the rift in the ruling coalition on the subject.
And even DB leader Hristo Ivanov threatened to step down on Thursday if Bulgaria does not give military aid to Kyiv.
A day earlier, “We continue the change” came up with an alternative – to give Ukraine only “technical assistance for protection” and explicitly explained that it includes only bulletproof vests and helmets. This corresponds to the previous assistance from the government, which provided 2,000 helmets and vests.
However, Ivanov’s demands for the decision of the National Assembly to be taken on Thursday and to include the word “military” were ignored by the coalition partners. And the issue will be resolved after May 2, when the Easter vacation of the deputies ends.
Military aid to Ukraine is a “red line” for the BSP as well, but they are strongly opposed. Because, according to leader Cornelia Ninova, “giving more weapons means prolonging the war.”
On Thursday, Kiril Petkov rushed to save the relations between the DB and the BSP, which are the two poles on the topic of “arming Ukraine”. The people of Hristo Ivanov and Atanas Atanasov came very close to GERB and Boyko Borisov, and the Socialists liked each other as the position of Kostadin Kostadinov and Vazrazhdane.
Factors in the coalition say that Petkov’s last move was to erase the red lines
is to get Ivanov and Ninova on a plane to Kyiv.
On the Facebook page of the Prime Minister and the head of his cabinet Lena Borislavova appeared the position of the PP with a reminder that Bulgaria helps 90 thousand Ukrainian women and children, sends humanitarian aid, the government has given helmets and bulletproof vests and from the beginning is a strong voice of Ukraine before Brussels and the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
“Here, too, we are faced with the choice of whether we want to cross the red lines of one of the two coalition partners at this time.
At the same time, there is currently one Bulgarian ship in Russian hands and one in Ukrainian hands. These are Bulgarian lives “, they continue. The PP insists – obviously with the addressee of the other parties in the coalition – that if we want the rescue operations to be successful, to continue to help Ukraine and “give stability to the Bulgarians in the crisis”, we need a common position.
“It’s time to turn our backs on political talk,
it’s time to stop talking about red lines and issue ultimatums,
who use only one political force. Bulgaria’s greatest interest at the moment is to have responsible and coordinated actions of the ruling coalition. It is in Ukraine’s greatest interest to have a stable Bulgaria, “Petkov and Borislavova said. The two, who are the faces of the executive branch, are convinced that responsible decisions had to be made “even when they are incompatible with political PR”. Therefore, as a constructive and responsible partner, the PP will pursue an active policy of dialogue between the BSP and the DB for unification around a single position.
Again on Thursday, the leader of “There are such people” Slavi Trifonov wrote on Facebook: “If there is a red line, I am on the side of those who believe that Ukraine should be supported in every way – including with weapons. Giving them only bulletproof vests at the moment is an absolute escape and in fact not taking any position. “
On Friday, DB co-chair Atanas Atanasov said enigmatically that Bulgaria could give weapons to Ukraine without the government being overthrown.
“Without overthrowing the government, without leaving it, if our position does not receive support, we have a way to differentiate ourselves from those who do not want to support military aid,” the DSB leader said.
In fact, the big question that stirred up coalition emotions during Holy Week is whether Bulgaria is doing enough to support Ukraine and whether we look like a hesitant and degrading partner in the eyes of the Western world.
BG follows in the sanctions
Sofia is among the most active initiators of sanctions against Russia since the invasion of Ukraine. Some of the measures adopted are even known as the bulgarian proposal.
By the way, on February 23, the day before the invasion, Prime Minister Kiril Petkov said that Bulgaria was a very clear partner of the EU and NATO and was in solidarity with the EU’s position on Ukraine and sanctions prepared in response to Putin’s recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk.
On February 25, Petkov took part in the extraordinary European Council in Brussels, which decided on the first sanctions against Russia. Then the Bulgarian prime minister called Russia “rocket gas stations”.
On March 15, Deputy Prime Minister Asen Vassilev told the ECOFIN Council in Brussels: “Bulgaria supports the sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation in all areas. We are also ready to discuss the adoption of additional restrictions in order to put pressure on stopping the war against the Ukrainian people. Strong support will continue to address possible opportunities to circumvent sanctions. We support the proposal for joint public procurement at EU level for key energy and agricultural goods, which will prevent a situation where Member States bid against each other.
On March 23, Bulgaria demanded a general negotiation of prices for the supply of Russian gas for the entire EU.
Bulgaria is closing its ports to Russian ships, Transport Minister Nikola Sabev said on March 5th. How will oil supplies be made then? They are provided by Bulgaria for Russia with the “necessary ships”, Sabev said days ago.
Refugees
According to the latest data, 188,500 Ukrainian refugees have entered Bulgaria, of which 88,000 have remained here. They seem small compared to the 2.5 million who entered Poland, but Poland is a country with a population of 38 million. At the same time, there are no Ukrainian refugees in our country accommodated in refugee camps.
Yesterday it became clear that Bulgaria, along with 8 other Central and Eastern European countries, will seek financial assistance from the EU for Ukrainian refugees.
The weapon
For the last 2 months, the export of weapons from Bulgaria has doubled, GERB announced on Thursday.
Bulgaria exported three times more weapons between February 20 and April 13 this year compared to the same period in 2021, according to a report provided by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Cornelia Ninova to Desislava Atanasova and Hristo Gadzhev. from GERB. The data are in response to their question in parliament. According to official data, Ukraine is not on the list of countries to which weapons are exported.
But these data give grounds to conclude that Bulgarian weapons still reach Ukraine.
Then why was Dmitry Kuleba here? What can Ukraine want from us? Rather, the pressure is on the old Russian planes, observers analyze. In the new stage of the war, according to military experts, Ukraine needs just air power.
However, this obviously cannot happen – at a time when the number of military aircraft we have is insufficient to protect our skies, according to Prime Minister Kiril Petkov. It has become clear that the delivery of the purchased F-16 fighters will be delayed, and we do not have trained pilots for other aircraft.
There is another problem. The sailors from the ship “Tsarevna” have already returned to Bulgaria, but in the war zone there is another ship with a Bulgarian crew – “Rozhen” in the Black Sea region. There are 11 sailors on board and the state is on the verge of how they will be brought out. Experts say that the case is more complicated than the one with “Princess” and the removal of the sailors requires a multi-pronged combination, which includes dialogue with Russia.
It is considered unreasonable at this very moment for Bulgaria to loudly announce that it is sending weapons to Ukraine.
On the edge of two complex balances
Observers say the moment is doubly critical for the government and the “Continue Change” mandate. They are between Scylla and Charybdis on two lines – both outside (due to the risky situation described above with the sailors from “Rozhen”) and inside. And they must balance carefully so that Bulgaria does not reach new elections right now with everything that goes along with this scenario – the radicalization of voters in the election campaign and an unpredictable result.
Prime Minister Kiril Petkov’s coalition problem is a projection of the geopolitical one that he must keep his partners, who are increasingly inclined to issue ultimatums. Both the DB and the BSP, on the other hand, are under pressure from their constituents, polar Russophobes and Russophiles. The former are dissatisfied with the fact that Bulgaria is delaying a clear position on the sending of weapons to Ukraine, the latter – on the contrary, that Bulgaria can irreparably destroy relations with Russia.
Well-informed sources close to the government say Prime Minister Kirill Petkov will try an interesting move – an intensified organization is underway to take coalition partners to Ukraine to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Thus, they will be able to hear his assessment of Bulgaria’s help in a personal conversation with him.
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