This year, the ninth anniversary of Russia’s annexation and occupation of Crimea has been marked by several military strikes, in which, according to Ukraine, Russia’s stockpiles of cruise missiles were destroyed, as well as Vladimir Putin’s unexpected and differently evaluated visit to Crimea and later also to occupied Mariupol.
The visit to Crimea looked miserable from the outside and showed Putin’s inner desperation, while Russia’s overall military failures in Ukraine have also significantly changed the overall outlook on the future of Crimea.
“Although there are different versions and explanations for all these actions, the people of Crimea perceived them completely correctly – now, most likely, there are no more people in Crimea who do not realize that the liberation of Crimea is already inevitable,” says Chubarov.
“For some, this understanding gives strength and increases patience as they await the liberation of Crimea, while others fall into hysteria and panic.
There is a special panic among almost a million Russian citizens who have illegally settled in the occupied Crimea. They are colonizers. And our position here is completely clear – each of them individually and all together must leave Crimea,” Chubarov emphasizes.
In the Crimean city of Simferopol, a girl paints the letters Z and V symbolizing Russian aggression on a car. An event was held in Simferopol in honor of the nine-year anniversary of the annexation of Crimea Photo: EPA
“This awareness has led to the fact that Russian power structures, trying to still control the behavior and even the consciousness of people in Crimea, use two methods that they have always known best.
The first is propaganda that spins around the clock, is unprincipled, but apparently achieves its goal to some extent.
The other method is intimidation and repression. Persecution of people, arrests, searches. They have not decreased. In the last year since Russia’s full-scale invasion of mainland Ukraine, there have actually been even more of them.
In addition, Russia absolutely avoids any of our attempts to get these people released, they do not agree to exchanges with Crimean Tatars and people of other nationalities who were arrested in Crimea on politically motivated charges,” says Chubarov.
Tom Pastor: But what do you think needs to happen for Ukraine to get its territories back? What remedies should be applied? You say – Crimea will be liberated sooner or later… But considering the current situation, when exactly could this happen and in what way?
Refat Chubarov: Now no one can say with such final certainty what exactly will be the method of liberation of Crimea, because everything will be determined by the course of the war between Russia and Ukraine. I personally think it will be a hybrid of different factors.
Of course, the first is the military factor. As soon as the southern part of Ukraine – Kherson, Zaporizhzhya regions will be liberated in the operations of the Ukrainian military forces… As soon as the first units of the Ukrainian army approach the administrative line connecting mainland Ukraine with the peninsula.
And if, at the same time, military actions were taken in connection with the destruction of the bridge across the Kerch Strait, which is currently one of the most important points of military communications…
Although it was blown up last year and Russia’s ability to transport military cargo was limited, they managed to rebuild it and it continues to play a critical role in Crimea’s supply and military communications.
Consequences of the explosion after the Crimean bridge was blown up Foto: EPA, UKRAINE SECURITY SERVICE
The second factor is the warships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. They play a special role in Russia’s control over the Crimean peninsula. And the third factor, which I have already started talking about, is the breaking of the land corridor between the occupied Crimea through the occupied Mariupol and further to the Rostov region.
To undermine all three factors – the bridge, the fleet and stop the operation of this corridor – Ukraine needs high-precision and long-range weapons.
It’s missile systems, it’s artillery. It seems to us that in the near future there will be enough for the Ukrainian army to act decisively.
Once these operations are successful, we feel that other factors may come into play, primarily factors of domestic political destabilization within Russia itself. Because Crimea, thanks to Putin and all his fascist propaganda, plays a special role in the consciousness of the majority of the Russian population.
For some reason, they feel that Crimea is really theirs. And they are convinced that now Crimea should no longer be outside of Russia.
And that’s why the Russian society’s awareness of the immutability of Crimea’s status will force them to be active in different spectrums of Russian society. The management of internal affairs could begin under today’s military-political leadership – we are already counting on that.
Therefore, all these factors related to the liberation of Crimea are not simply one-time and will simply disappear after they are played out.
The liberation of Crimea in general may not be just a kind of political disintegration of Russia. We very much hope that this will also be the territorial disintegration of Russia and that the future borders of the Russian Federation will probably be significantly different from what they are today.
How do you see Vladimir Putin’s role in this process? A couple of days ago, he was in Sevastopol when we learned that the International Criminal Court had issued a warrant for his arrest. How did you take this news?
Here is his appearance in Sevastopol, and then, by the way, just as unexpected in Mariupol, on the condition that it was really him, and not doubles, there are different opinions here… But assuming that it was really him – this appearance is directly related with the fact that the day before the International Criminal Court decided to issue a warrant for his arrest.
I have no doubt that Putin’s appearance in Crimea, then in Mariupol, was a desire to show the Russian public, perhaps to some extent the outside world, that he is still so macho, he is not afraid of anyone, and such is his contemptuous reaction to the arrest warrant.
But you know, it happened in such a pathetic, humiliating way. Everyone knows Putin’s maniacal fears for his health and safety since the covid days, but when full-scale war started, he practically did not leave his bunker, except for a few very rare visits, or when someone comes to him. That’s why he also got the nickname – “grandfather of the bunker.” And even a year and a half ago, when he met with the world’s leading politicians, Putin sat behind a very long table.
But here suddenly – it flies there, then flies away in another direction… It’s all out of desperation, hopelessness. As if to say – I am not afraid of you, although in fact we know that he is torn by inner fear and panic.
