August has already begun, the first month that enters the forecast of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for the establishment of The girl, a meteorological phenomenon that has the ability to change the climate and cause havoc in different countries around the world.
This, in the midst of a context where he climate change is exacerbating extreme weather events —such as floods, landslides, mudslides, hurricanes and long droughts— which could be much more intense with the upcoming arrival of La Niña.
The latest reports from the US agency stated that There is a 70% chance that La Niña will begin in the August, September and October quarter (i.e. in the southern spring).
If not, There is another 79% chance that it will arrive at the end of the year, between November, December and January.
Now that August has begun, the necessary conditions have not yet been met to confirm that La Niña has arrived. Here is what is known about the alarming phenomenon and its possible effects on Chile and the world.
What happened to La Niña? The latest updates on the phenomenon that will change the world’s climate
The researcher and physical engineer of the University of Santiago de Chile (Usach)Edgard Sepulveda, tells Third to determine that La Niña has already formed, The temperature of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean should be 0.5 °C below average.
However, The rate of ocean cooling has not yet reached the required level. This is why climate model forecasts suggest that the necessary cooling should be completed this quarter or, at the latest, by the end of the year.
However, Sepúlveda assures that global warming —which causes phenomena such as El Niño or La Niña to have more intense and frequent extreme events— could be causing uncertainty in the forecasts.
“We have a trend of what is expected climatologically speaking, but anyway, “Being at temperatures never before recorded by humanity, we are practically facing scenarios that we have never seen before”says the expert, referring to the heat records that were recorded in 2023 and half of 2024.
What happened to La Niña? The latest updates on the phenomenon that will change the world’s climate
Along these lines, the researcher says that “Statistics can help us predict a trend, but unfortunately the details of what these meteorological events will be like are very difficult to know.”
“In Chile, we had a very rainy June, perhaps due to the remnants of El Niño, but in July we jumped to a completely dry month. This is also a characteristic of global warming scenarios.”
And although forecasts have already repeatedly delayed the arrival of La Niña, Sepúlveda believes that It is highly likely that 2025 “will be a full year of La Niña and, at least in Chile, we will have a cumulative rainfall much lower than what we achieved in 2024.”
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Raúl Cordero, climatologist at Usach, assures LT that although La Niña is likely to end its development in the spring, “Uncertainty remains as to how intense it will be and how long it will last.”
According to the expert, unlike El Niño, which usually lasts about 12 months, La Niña can persist for up to three years.
“If the next La Niña persists beyond a year, it could revive the megadrought in Chile,” says Cordero.
La Niña is associated with the drop in temperatures in the central and south-central areas of the country, so “could moderate the high temperatures during the next Chilean summer. The last two have been unusually warm, so if La Niña develops soon, next summer is unlikely to be as scorching.”
What happened to La Niña? The latest updates on the phenomenon that will change the world’s climate
To the above, researcher Sepúlveda adds that This does not mean that it will be a cold summer. A hot summer is expected, as usual, but heat waves may not be as intense as last summer.because at that time, El Niño was present, which is characterized by increasing temperatures.
“By moderating temperatures, La Niña could make the weather conditions that favor the spread of forest fires less likely,” says Cordero. “Perhaps La Niña could make the next fire season less active than the last two.”
Going a little further ahead, if La Niña does establish itself, it would be around the world for at least a year (if not more): this means that During the next winter in Chile we could also feel its effects.
“Next winter we should be fully in La Niña conditions: that is, less precipitation, but also lower temperatures. Minimum temperatures are likely to be very low”Sepúlveda advances.
What happened to La Niña? The latest updates on the phenomenon that will change the world’s climate. Photo: Javier Salvo/Aton Chile
Furthermore, the researcher explains that What we experienced in July in Chile is a kind of “preview” of what La Niña could be next year. After a rainy June, July was “the driest ever recorded in central Chile.”
And it is that With La Niña, Chile always has a tendency towards a lack of rainfall.
The megadrought, which has been present in the country for more than 15 years, was exacerbated by the effects of La Niña in past years. For example, the last one that was present in the country lasted three consecutive years: from 2020 to 2023.
That is to say, the combination of the La Niña phenomenon with the drought that has been affecting the country for at least a decade has caused Chileans to experience “extraordinarily dry” years.
