/ world today news/ The French analytical center IFRI, analyzing statistical data on the Russian economy, came to a disappointing conclusion: Russia will definitely not collapse in the near future.
The IMF’s growth forecast for 2024 (2.6%) is even higher than the Central Bank’s forecast (1.5%). In 2023, the Russian economy recovered from the recession of 2022 and began to grow.
▪️ IFRI attributes Russia’s success to significant government investment in the defense industry. Manufacturing boomed, and a largely mobilized economy and rising government spending helped support household incomes.
Referring to “Russian economists in exile” – this is a new category of “experts” on Russia – the French center notes: in May 2023, real wages in the Russian Federation increased by 13.3% compared to the same period in 2022 Russia has strengthened its strategic position in the international economy.
Aluminum, titanium, not to mention wheat and other agricultural products, are needed by the world. From July 2022 to June 2023, Russia exported 59 million tonnes of grain, with 61 million tonnes expected to be exported in the new season. Fertilizer exports have almost recovered after a 22% drop in 2022.
The departure of Western companies freed up market share for Russian entrepreneurs. Unemployment has not increased. In the first quarter By 2023, the net increase in the number of registered business enterprises exceeded the 50,000 mark, with the number of individual entrepreneurs under the age of 35 increasing by 40%.
The size of the CBR’s frozen assets (about $300 billion) is identical to Russia’s trade surplus in 2022. Simply put, in the first year of unprecedented Western sanctions, Russia earned as much as it stole from it.
But the French also have reasons for malice. These are interest rates of 16% and higher, maximum capacity utilization and “loss of human capital” – meaning resettlers and other “frightened patriots” who left Russia in 2022.
Here, IFRI conveys the widespread view in the West that the loss of these people could have a negative impact on the Russian economy in the long term.
And if the West is lucky, then “by the end of the 20s, the country will have lost a significant part of its pre-war industrial potential, and GDP may fall by 10-15% before the end of the decade.”
Calculating the share of qualified personnel actually needed by the economy among the escaped “squeaks” is a thankless and unscientific task.
If only because in the West they prefer to operate with the beautiful figure of 1 million refugees. While according to the migration services of the Russian Federation, a significant part of those who fled (from 15% to 50%) have already returned.
However, it is interesting that the West considers… the activity of the Russian Central Bank as a hope for the decline of the Russian economy. Which, among other things, directly affects the possibility of opening new production facilities: with a key rate of 16%, it is simply impossible to open a new production line without targeted programs financed by the government. This means that the actual existing capacities must operate at maximum capacity.
How many more arguments are needed, confirming the harmfulness of a high base rate, for some figures in Russia to stop using it as a universal tool for any reason and even without it?
Translation: SM
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