A health worker with a face mask in front of a mural by revolutionary leader Che Guevara in Havana. The Cuban economy – and not least the tourism industry – has been hit hard by the corona pandemic. Photo: Ramon Espinosa / AP / NTB
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Trump and the corona
The backdrop for the historic party congress is a very challenging period for Cuba, which has been hit by an economic crisis.
An initially difficult situation was exacerbated when former US President Donald Trump introduced new sanctions against Cuba. Then came the corona pandemic, which strained the country’s important tourism industry.
In parallel, the island’s communist leaders have sought to introduce reforms. But they are accused of mismanagement and poor choices, and small steps in the direction of market economy have so far not improved people’s everyday lives.
– Wages are a problem, they are too low. And there are problems with food, the queues are long, says the 44-year-old chef Sergio to the news agency AFP.
A larger room
In addition to food shortages and empty store shelves, economic inequalities are increasing. In the corona year 2020, the economy in Cuba shrank by 11 percent.
A system with two parallel currencies was scrapped at the turn of the year, which triggered a sharp jump in inflation.
The authorities have also gradually opened up for more private business. At the same time, they have opened up a somewhat larger space for political discussion and disagreement.
For critics of the authorities, it has become easier to organize after the Cubans in 2018 got mobile internet access. In recent months, for the first time ever, the government has held talks with activists demanding freedom of expression.
Another chapter?
Already in 2016, the same year as his brother Fidel died, Raul Castro promised to resign from the leadership position in the Communist Party during this weekend’s party congress. On Friday, he kept his promise.
In his speech, Castro mentioned US sanctions and punished what he called economic war.
“The sanctions are intended to stifle the country and provoke a social explosion from within,” Castro said.
The United States states that it is not planning any immediate change in its policy towards Cuba, despite the change of leadership in the island state.
“Support for democracy and human rights will be at the heart of our efforts,” White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said on Friday.
If Miguel Díaz-Canel now, as expected, gets most of the political power in his hands, he will be the first without a military background with this position in Cuba since the communist revolution in the 1950s.
Hardly changes
Díaz-Canel wears suits and ties, is a technology expert and a Beatles fan. In that sense, he is more modern than the Castro brothers, but he is still a disciple of the Communist Party.
Analyst Norman McKay of The Economist Intelligence Unit does not believe in major changes in Cuba.
“The absence of a Castro at the helm does not necessarily mean that there will be an abrupt change in the Communist Party’s style,” McKay said.
Some analysts believe that 89-year-old Raul will continue to play an important role in Cuban politics.
Former Cuban diplomat Carlos Alzugaray believes the situation will be reminiscent of China after Deng Xiaoping relinquished power in the 1980s. He still had considerable influence even though he no longer officially held any political office.
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