IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DESERT: Satellite images show rocket silos under construction deep in Xinjiang province in northwestern China, says the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). Foto: Planet Labs Inc
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China has started major construction projects that may indicate an expansion of the country’s nuclear arsenal. US experts fear a new arms race.
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In June, it was discovered that new rocket silos were under construction near Yumen in Gansu Province. U.S. researchers then scanned satellite images and found another construction site, this time near Hami in northwestern Xinjiang province.
– The silos under construction in Yumen and Hami constitute the largest expansion of the Chinese nuclear arsenal ever, the researchers write in a report which was recently published.
The project in Hami is located 380 kilometers northwest of that in Yumen. Construction work on the former site is said to have begun in March and has not progressed very far.
—-GIANT AREA: What scientists believe is a missile field in Hami, eastern China, covers just over 800 square kilometers, according to the report to FAS. Foto: Planet Labs Inc
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Several hundred silos
In all, the Hami project includes 14 separate construction sites, each covered with huge dome-like structures. The material the researchers have collected so far may indicate a network of 110 silos. The Yumen field, which was first discovered, has over 120 silos.
It is unknown whether all the silos will be equipped with rockets, or whether many are intended as a deterrent. In that case, this may mean that the real number of new nuclear missiles will be smaller than the large construction projects would suggest.
—-“IDENTICAL”: The researchers believe that the missile field in Hami contains structures that are identical to those seen in other fields. Foto: Planet Labs Inc
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According to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), which is behind it the report, China today has around 350 nuclear warheads. In 2020, the Pentagon talked about a number around 200, but expected a doubling in three years. In any case, China has significantly fewer nuclear warheads than the United States and Russia, which sit at around 4,000 each.
Possible motives
The experts believe that there may be very different motives behind the construction of new silos. The Chinese regime under Xi Jinping may only respond to the modernization of nuclear arsenals in the United States, Russia and India.
—-OUTSIDE RANGE: Conventional US cruise missiles will not be able to hit the new facilities, according to the researchers. Foto: Planet Labs Inc
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It is also possible that China is concerned that existing silos are easy to detect and thus put out of action.
Today’s silos are within reach of conventional US cruise missiles, while the Yumen and Hami facilities are further inland. Increasing the number of silos also improves the ability to strike back after a possible attack.
Deterrence
The researchers are also discussing whether the new rockets will switch from liquid to solid fuel, which will shorten the response time. They assume that China is concerned about the US missile defense, which could weaken the possibility of a retaliatory attack and thus the deterrent.
—-MIGHTY: Chinese President Xi Jinping at a gala in June. Photo: Ng Han Guan / AP
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The researchers point out that many of the silos may be left empty and only give the impression that the Chinese nuclear arsenal is larger than it actually is.
China today has a relatively small arsenal that provides what the professional circles call “minimal deterrence”. The construction projects may also be an expression of China’s desire to increase its ability to pose threats.
Externally, Chinese leaders have always assured that China will never launch a first-rate attack with nuclear weapons. Since the late 1990s, the United States has tried in vain to get China to participate in international arms control negotiations.
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